How Iran's use of 'North Korean tactics' against Israel may change Middle East dynamics

How Iran’s use of ‘North Korean tactics’ against Israel may change Middle East dynamics

Following the recent Israel-Iran attacks, a significant strategic shift is underway in the Middle East. Iran achieved strategic success with its attack, while Israel also accomplished its objectives. However, the regional dynamics have become more perilous.

Iran’s decision to directly attack Israel represents a major change in the Middle East. By launching a large number of missiles and drones, Iran could potentially overwhelm Israeli defenses, making them economically unsustainable in the long run. This strategy resembles North Korea’s approach of demonstrating its capability and willingness to strike its adversaries, a report in Asia Times said.

The main difference between Iran and North Korea is that Iran does not currently possess operational nuclear weapons, although it has the ability to produce them. Israel’s retaliation sends a clear message that it can strike Iran at will and reinforces the red line that Iran must not progress towards obtaining nuclear weapons, the Asia Times report said.

Israel has also achieved a new level of cooperation with US support. For the first time, Saudi Arabia participated in Israel’s defense and is now part of an anti-Iranian coalition. The US has brought together key regional players, including Egypt, Jordan, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the Kurds, in a united effort against Iran.

“The participation of both Jordan and Saudi Arabia in the defense of Israeli airspace on April 14 demonstrates that Iran has failed to translate the unrest over Israel’s offensive in Gaza into a broad rift between Israel and major Arab states… The totality of Iran’s actions since the October 7 Hamas attack has set back Tehran’s efforts to build bridges to major Arab states, particularly the monarchies of the Persian Gulf,” according to the Soufan Center.

The long-term implications of Iran’s “North Koreanization” remain uncertain, as it could either rally or alienate other countries in the region.

The participation of Jordan and Saudi Arabia on April 14th in defense efforts has notably failed to widen the rift between major Arab states and Israel, contrary to Iran’s intentions. According to the Soufan Center, the events following the October 7 Hamas attack have significantly undermined Iran’s attempts to foster relations with key Arab monarchies.

The situation’s complexity is further deepened by potential Kurdish involvement, which could stir tensions with Turkey given President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s longstanding opposition to Kurdish aspirations. The dynamics within the region could push Erdogan towards different alliances, either drawing closer to Iran or seeking more moderate partners.

The unfolding geopolitical narrative in the Middle East is shaping a new reality where traditional alliances are being tested and new ones formed. The strategic maneuvers by Iran and the responses from Israel and its allies are setting the stage for a potentially transformed regional order.

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