Fantasy plays: Players to start and sit for NFL Week 12

We’re still a few weeks away from the official “most wonderful time of the year,” but for fantasy purposes, this is the pinnacle.

Week 12: Thanksgiving week.

No byes. Three games on Thursday. An all-new Black Friday game.

Does it get any better than this?

Well, if you’re out of the fantasy football playoff picture, probably. But for those of us still in contention, this is where we make the playoff push.

NFL STATS CENTRAL: The latest NFL scores, schedules, odds, stats and more.

That means start/sit decisions are all the more crucial, especially given the lack of guys we can truly count on week in and week out.

But don’t you worry.

I have you covered.

Every week I list every fantasy-relevant player, sorted by position and bucketed into tiers with the higher-tiered players deemed more start-worthy. For specific start/sit advice between two players in the same tier, refer to numberFire ’s projection model.

These tiers are meant to reflect your typical 12-team, half-PPR scoring formats with only one starting quarterback — though the general rankings can be loosely applied to most formats.

Any player not listed can be assumed sit-worthy in most leagues.

All betting references refer to the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All statistics via NFL Next Gen Stats and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise stated.

QUARTERBACKS

Tier 1: Lineup locks

— Josh Allen (BUF)

— Jalen Hurts (PHI)

— Dak Prescott (DAL)

— Lamar Jackson (BAL)

— Patrick Mahomes (KC)

— C.J. Stroud (HOU)

— Kyler Murray (ARI)

— Justin Herbert (LAC)

Tier 2: Probable starters

Justin Fields (CHI). After missing four weeks with a thumb injury, Fields scored 21.2 points in his return despite not being 100%. It was encouraging to see him flirt with a 70% completion rate, but I’m more interested in the rushing. Fields eclipsed 100 yards on the ground for the first time all season last week. Minnesota is no cakewalk, but you need his rushing upside in your starting lineup.

Brock Purdy (SF) has bounced back from a few rough starts to have three consecutive 20-point games. That includes last week’s career-high 26.7-point effort that saw him have a perfect 158.3 passer rating. We can’t expect that on the road against a capable Seattle defense, but his efficiency and supporting cast are stellar. I’d have a hard time leaving him out of my lineup on Thanksgiving.

Trevor Lawrence (JAX). It took Lawrence 10 games, but he finally lived up to his QB8 average draft position. Lawrence scored a season-high 32.2 fantasy points on 262 passing yards and four total touchdowns (two through the air; two on the ground). Houston ranks 21st in adjusted fantasy points per drop-back and 23rd in passing success rate allowed, giving some life to another second-half breakout.

Sam Howell (WSH). Howell has finished as a QB1 in six of the past seven weeks — in large part thanks to heavy volume. The Commanders rank third in pass rate over expectation, and Howell has thrown at least 40 passes in seven of his past eight games. Dallas’ defense is scary, but Washington should continue to throw it as 10 1/2-point underdogs. There’s a strong floor/ceiling combination here.

Tier 3: On the fence

Jared Goff (DET). Usually lights-out at Ford Field, Goff has struggled in his past two home starts despite seemingly plus matchups. Although he turned it up down the stretch, his struggles could lead to Detroit running the ball this week against a Packers front that’s bottom-10 against the run, according to numberFire ’s scheduled-adjusted metrics. Goff’s start-able, but temper expectations.

Joshua Dobbs (MIN). Over the past five weeks, Dobbs is the QB3 overall. While Dobbs is only averaging a little more 200 passing yards per game over that span, he’s scored five times on the ground. He won’t run for a touchdown every game (right?), and if he doesn’t this week, I don’t love his upside against a Chicago defense that’s allowed just one 20-point game over their past six. Not a must-sit, but I think you can do better.

Baker Mayfield (TB) has scored 16 points in seven of 10 games. The three times he didn’t came against the Eagles, Lions, and 49ers — the top three teams in the NFC. He ranks fifth in both total air yards per game and total deep passing (20-plus yards) attempts, per PFF. Indy has allowed the sixth-most deep yards per target and a league-average 0.38 adjusted fantasy points per drop-back, so there’s streaming appeal here.

Tier 4: Sit if possible

Tua Tagovailoa (MIA). There aren’t a ton of typical starting QBs that I’m out on this week … other than Tua Tagovailoa. Tagovailoa hasn’t been bad, but he’s eclipsed 20 points just twice since Miami’s 70-point outburst in Week 4. Without any rushing volume, I just don’t see where his upside comes from against a Jets defense that’s held Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Justin Herbert all under 16 fantasy points in New York.

Russell Wilson (DEN) just eclipsed 225 passing yards for the first time since Week 3, but now he draws the Browns. Cleveland has allowed by far the lowest EPA per drop-back (-0.42), passing success rate (31.6%), and passing yards per game (143.7). He belongs on the bench this week.

RUNNING BACKS

Tier 1: Lineup locks

— Christian McCaffrey (SF)

— Jahmyr Gibbs (DET)

— Travis Etienne (JAX)

— Alvin Kamara (NO)

— Jonathan Taylor (IND)

— Saquon Barkley (NYG)

— Austin Ekeler (LAC)

— D’Andre Swift (PHI)

— Tony Pollard (DAL)

— Josh Jacobs (LV)

— David Montgomery (DET)

— Bijan Robinson (ATL)

— Isiah Pacheco (KC)

— Derrick Henry (TEN)

— Raheem Mostert (MIA)

— Rachaad White (TB)

— Breece Hall (NYJ)

— Gus Edwards (BAL)

— Joe Mixon (CIN)

— Brian Robinson (WSH)

Tier 2: Probable starters

Kyren Williams (LAR). From Weeks 1-4, Kyren Williams was the RB4. He played 84% of snaps and averaged 25.3 adjusted opportunities per game over that span. That’s Christian McCaffrey-type usage. With Williams back, I’m more than willing to start him against a Cardinals defense that ranks 28th against the run, according to numberFire’s metrics, and has allowed the seventh-highest RB rush success rate.

Jerome Ford (CLE). It was a quiet game for Jerome Ford last week, but he did score a touchdown and get a team-high three red zone carries. Ford continues to approach 20 adjusted opportunities per game and should thrive against a Broncos defense that ranks 32nd in RB rush success rate and 31st in adjusted fantasy points per carry.

Jaylen Warren (PIT). His breakout has arrived. Despite still hovering around a 45% snap share, Warren finished as the RB14, RB7, and RB2 over the past three weeks. Warren’s 2.05 rushing yards over expectation per carry leads all qualified rushers (and is comparable to Nick Chubb’s 2.08 pre-injury mark, for context). He has to be in lineups against a Bengals defense that allows the second-most yards per carry and second-highest RB rush success rate.

Devin Singletary (HOU). He had 22.6 and 18.8 points in the past two weeks, finishing as a top-five back on both occasions. I don’t think he’ll have that kind of RB1 upside with Dameon Pierce back, but he should still get the majority of carries with how well he’s played. Singletary is a strong flex and viable RB2.

Rhamondre Stevenson (NE). In the five weeks before his bye, Stevenson was the RB11 and averaged 13.1 points per game. Though he ceded red zone work to Ezekiel Elliot, Stevenson’s 17.1% target was highly encouraging for his rest of season outlook. The Giants have allowed the fourth-most adjusted fantasy points per carry, so expect him to thrive with 20-plus adjusted opportunities.

Zach Charbonnet (SEA). With Kenneth Walker out, Charbonnet has a chance to shine. The matchup isn’t as bad as you’d think — San Francisco ranks 27th in adjusted fantasy points per carry — and the workload could be large. Charbonnet had 27 adjusted opportunities last week, playing 53 snaps compared to DeeJay Dallas’ 7. With that kind of volume, he needs to be in your fantasy lineup.

Javonte Williams (DEN) struggled in a tough matchup last week, and it doesn’t get any better against the Browns. Cleveland ranks second in RB rush success rate and rushing EPA per carry, but we saw Jaylen Warren break a big gain last week. While I’m a little concerned with last week’s low snap share (46.2%), expect Denver to give him all the work he can handle. It’s also worth noting that numberFire’s model loves Williams this week, projecting him as the RB14 with 13.7 points.

James Conner (ARI) is another back the projections love, as numberFire’s model has Conner at RB15 at 13.6 points this week. While it was encouraging to get some involvement in the passing game last week (10.3% target share), Kyler Murray has scored twice on the ground to Conner’s zero. The Rams are a middle-of-the-pack running back matchup, so Conner’s workload should be strong enough to warrant a start.

Tier 3: On the fence

De’Von Achane (MIA). With Achane, it’s all about health and where your team is at. Obviously, Achane has to play to be considered in fantasy. But let’s just say he’s active. While the upside is tremendous, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him severely limited, and there’s always the risk of re-injury. Unless you need a huge boost, I wouldn’t risk playing him … but I’m intrigued.

Khalil Herbert (CHI) is intriguing, especially with D’Onta Foreman banged up. Herbert only totaled 5.1 points in his return, but had 22 adjusted opportunities and paced the backfield with a 43.7% snap share. While Minnesota has one of the league’s better run defenses, it’s not a complete juggernaut. Herbert’s a fine start assuming Foreman sits.

James Cook (BUF). On one hand, Cook had his second-best fantasy performance of the season in his first game post-Ken Dorsey. On the other hand, Cook had his second-lowest snap share of the season (45.1%) in his first game post-Dorsey. He’s talented enough to produce in a limited role, but I don’t love his upside against an Eagles defense allowing the third-fewest adjusted fantasy points per carry.

AJ Dillon (GB) is the only healthy back in Green Bay, but we’ve seen this before. In three games without Aaron Jones this season, Dillon finished as the RB30, RB52, and RB12. He averaged 15.3 carries per game in those starts,. but failed to rack up four yards per carry in all three. While Detroit is a middle-of-the-pack run defense, Green Bay could lean to the air as 7.5-point underdogs. That makes Dillon a low-upside start in Week 12.

Alexander Mattison & Ty Chandler (MIN). Despite Mattison clearing concussion protocol last week, Chandler still had a strong workload. Although Chandler played only 30.4% of snaps (to Mattison’s 65.2%), he had 18 adjusted opportunities compared to Mattison’s 22. Granted, the Broncos are one of the best matchups for RBs, but the two combined for 190 yards from scrimmage. Mattison’s goal-line role (five red zone rush attempts) and Chandler’s work in the passing game (13.8% target share) give them both flex appeal against an improving Bears defense.

Keaton Mitchell (BAL). He played a career-high 36.7% of snaps and had only six fewer adjusted opportunities than Gus Edwards. He’s still averaging an absurd 6.44 rushing yards over expectation per carry and has a 55% success rate this season. A big play waiting to happen, I’m fine throwing a dart with him against the Chargers defense.

Kareem Hunt (CLE). The efficiency has been lacking (3.2 yards per carry), and he hasn’t finished inside the top 35 in any game he didn’t score… but he’s scored in five of eight games. While Hunt did cede red zone rushing work to Jerome Ford this week, I don’t see his short-yardage role going away. Cleveland’s offense isn’t as good with DTR, but Denver has one the worst run defenses in the NFL, so Hunt belongs on the flex radar.

Tier 4: Sit if possible

Najee Harris (PIT). His role isn’t going away, even with Jaylen Warren’s emergence. Harris continues to play close to 60% of snaps, and I don’t think that goes away even with a change at offensive coordinator. I just don’t think it matters. Pittsburgh’s offense struggles to score points, and Harris remains inefficient (33.3% success rate; 3.9 yards per carry). Even in a good matchup, there’s not much upside.

Chuba Hubbard & Miles Sanders (CAR). I can’t think of a less appealing backfield than Carolina’s. The Panthers are averaging just points per game and boast numberFire’s lowest-rated offense. Hubbard and Sanders are in a full-on timeshare at this point, and they’re up against a Titans front that’s allowed the third-lowest RB rush success rate in the NFL. Easy sits.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Tier 1: Lineup locks

— CeeDee Lamb (DAL)

— A.J. Brown (PHI)

— Stefon Diggs (BUF)

— Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET)

— Tyreek Hill (MIA)

— Keenan Allen (LAC)

— Brandon Aiyuk (SF)

— Mike Evans (TB)

— Michael Pittman Jr. (IND)

— D.J. Moore (CHI)

— Tank Dell (HOU)

— DeVonta Smith (PHI)

— Adam Thielen (CAR)

— Cooper Kupp (LAR) (injury)

— Chris Olave (NO)

— Davante Adams (LV)

— Jaylen Waddle (MIA)

— Puka Nacua (LAR) (injury)

— Nico Collins (HOU)

— Deebo Samuel (SF)

Tier 2: Probable starters

Justin Jefferson (MIN). It goes without saying that if Jefferson is activated off IR, he’s in your starting lineup. Don’t overthink it. Just pay attention to the injury report.

Zay Flowers (BAL). We are close to his breakout. The rookie had a 68-yard touchdown called back last week, leading to just 6.5 fantasy points. While he hasn’t cleared double-digit points since Week 6, Flowers should get as much work as he can handle with Mark Andrews out. He’s a smash start against a Chargers defense that’s allowed the fourth-most adjusted fantasy points per target to the position.

Calvin Ridley & Christian Kirk (JAX). I have no idea what to make of this Jacksonville receiving room. It’s pretty clear neither Ridley nor Kirk are going to be reliable every week, but we can’t risk leaving them on the bench. I’m optimistic the Jags’ passing attack finds more consistency over the second half of the season considering they rank sixth in pass rate over expectation. Houston is in the bottom 10 in adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, so I’d be hard-pressed to leave either out of my fantasy lineup.

DK Metcalf (SEA). He hadn’t scored since Week 4, but D.K. Metcalf got in the end zone last week en route to his best fantasy performance of the season. He’s had a 27.7% target share and 49% air yard share over the past four weeks, giving him a safe floor even in a tough matchup. Metcalf’s upside is too high to leave on the bench.

DeAndre Hopkins (TEN). He’s hardly the most consistent performer, but Hopkins is still a viable deep threat and continues to get upward of a 30% target share with Will Levis under center. Despite Tennessee running just 38 total plays last week, Hopkins still produced. I’d expect more consistent production against the Panthers (31st in scheduled-adjusted pass defense), especially considering the Titans have averaged 12.8 more points at home.

Terry McLaurin (WSH). Coming off a trio of quiet outings, look for McLaurin to bounce back this week. He’s had at least seven targets in six straight games, so the floor is solid and the volume could be plentiful this week. Washington already passes at the third-highest rate over expectation, but now they’re double-digit underdogs. Even against a strong Cowboys defense, there’s garbage time potential and plenty of volume for McLaurin to thrive.

Josh Downs (IND). The hype has died down the past few weeks, but I’m all-in on the rookie in Week 12. Downs and the Colts have a 23-point implied team total at home against a Bucs that’s allowed the most fantasy points per target and second-most yards per route run to WRs over the past five weeks.

Drake London (ATL). He’s been quiet the past few weeks, but I like London coming off his bye. He had his three best fantasy performances of the season in his past three home matchups — a trend that lines up with Desmond Ridder’s home/away splits. The Saints have a strong defense, but London had 12 receptions (18 targets) and 144 yards in two games last season. This is the week to start him.

Romeo Doubs & Jayden Reed (GB). These are the Green Bay pass-catchers you want in fantasy. Neither Doubs (16.4% share past four weeks) nor Reed (14.3%) are dominating targets, but both are becoming red zone threats, and Reed is even getting some work in the run game. Look for the Packers to scheme up a lot of opportunities with several skill-position players out against a Lions defense letting up the eighth-most adjusted fantasy points per target to the position.

Demario Douglas (NE) leads New England with a 22.8% target share since Week 7 and he had a 34.6% share in the final game before the bye. Even in a poor offense, there’s room for Douglas to have a nice fantasy day against a Giants defense that’s allowed the highest target rate and most yards per route run to opposing receivers.

Brandin Cooks (DAL). He’s far from a safe play, but there’s no denying Cooks′ upside this week. He’s two weeks removed from a 27.8-point outing, led the team in receiving yards last week, and now draws the single-best matchup for wide receivers. Washington has allowed, by far, the most adjusted fantasy points per target to the position. Cooks has a massive ceiling.

Tier 3: On the fence

Garrett Wilson (NYJ). It’s not as if Wilson’s quarterback situation could get worse, but I don’t know if Tim Boyle is changing much for the sophomore wideout. Miami has looked like a different defense with Jalen Ramsey back, so I won’t blame you for sitting Wilson given the uncertainty at QB.

Marquise Brown (ARI). After posting WR1 numbers with Kyler Murray last season, Brown has had consecutive quiet games in his return. Brown has now finished outside the top 45 WRs in five of the past six weeks. I’m willing to trot him out there again given his 100% route rate the past two games, but he’s hardly a must-start against a Rams defense allowing the sixth-fewest adjusted fantasy points to receivers.

Tyler Lockett & Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA). Both Lockett and Smith-Njigba remain volatile fantasy options given Seattle’s plethora of offensive playmakers. They’re still passing at the ninth-highest rate over expectation, and I could see them airing it out a lot if they fall behind to San Francisco, but I worry about their upside against an elite defense with a banged-up Geno Smith under center. Lockett has had a 24.1% target share in the past four weeks, and it’s worth noting Smith-Njigba surpassed 100 air yards for the first time last week.

Jordan Addison (MIN). The touchdowns have dried up for Addison and with it, his fantasy production. He’s still hovering around a 20% target share with Josh Dobbs under center, but that’s not enough to make him anything more than a flex even against Chicago’s bottom-ranked pass defense.

Rashee Rice (KC). Despite pacing the KC receiving room in yards per route run, Rice can’t seem to find consistent playing time. His snap share and route rate both dipped coming out of the bye, and he hasn’t cleared a 15% target share since Week 4. He remains a strong red zone threat — and could easily score given the Chiefs’ 26.5-point implied team total — but his inconsistent usage is really hard to trust.

Diontae Johnson & George Pickens (PIT) — I’m not sure what Pittsburgh’s offense looks like post-Matt Canada, but it can’t be worse than last week. While Kenny Pickett is far from a top QB, the Bengals are middle of the pack in adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs, and we’ve seen both Johnson and Pickens produce in tough spots. I’d lean Johnson (29.5% target share since Week 7), but Pickens (20.1% share over the same span) still has upside.

Chris Godwin (TB) — Godwin has yet to get less than a 16% target share in any game, but an 8.9-yard average depth of target keeps his production capped. That said, Godwin still leads the team with a 28.3% red zone target share despite having only one touchdown to his name, so he’s due for some positive regression. Indy has allowed the seventh-most adjusted fantasy points per target, but Godwin’s recent play makes him a risky flex.

Odell Beckham Jr. (BAL) — Beckham is start-able in fantasy. OBJ leads the Baltimore receiving room with a 20.5% target share over the past five weeks and now draws a Chargers pass defense that ranks 30th in numberFire’s defensive metrics. Don’t be shocked if he’s a top-24 wideout this week.

Tutu Atwell (LAR) — If either Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua are out this week, Atwell becomes instantly start-able. He had a 21.4% target share and averaged 11.7 points per game (WR21) with Kupp out the first four weeks. All he needs is opportunity against a Cardinals secondary that’s allowed the second-most adjusted fantasy points per target and fourth-most yards per route run to wideouts.

Rashid Shaheed & AT Perry (NO). I’m pretty bullish on both of New Orleans’ secondary receivers this week. Michael Thomas is on IR, while Chris Olave will have to contend with AJ Terrell. The Falcons have struggled covering the slot, making Shaheed the preferred option, but even Perry is viable if you’re in a pinch … especially if Jameis Winston is under center.

Jahan Dotson & Curtis Samuel (WSH). They’re not safe plays by any means, but there’s upside with Dotson and Samuel given Washington’s pass-heavy approach potentially facing an early negative game script. While the Cowboys are a tough matchup on the outside, they have quietly been vulnerable in the slot. That bumps Samuel up, but both guys are decent dart throws with the Commanders passing at the third-highest rate over expectation.

Tier 4: Sit if possible

Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) — I don’t want anything to do with Chase this week. It’s not solely because Joe Burrow is out — he still has value with Jake Browning rest of season — but the matchup is brutal. While Browning did hit Chase for a late touchdown last week, he finished with just 12 yards, the second-fewest of his career. With Joey Porter Jr. expected to shadow, Chase’s floor is way too low to compensate for a shaky ceiling.

Tee Higgins (CIN) has been out the past two weeks, but even if he returns he’ll be catching passes from Jake Browning in his first career start against the Steelers. He’s a huge risk and is best left on benches.

Amari Cooper (CLE) has some value the rest of season even with Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center. But this is a brutal spot, on the road against a Denver defense that’s allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to WRs over the past five weeks. Even with last week’s 19.5% target share, he is a safe sit.

Courtland Sutton (DEN) could easily score again and make this look unwise, but we have to expect regression to hit at some point, right? Only Tyreek Hill has more receiving touchdowns than Sutton’s eight scores this season. His target share remains strong, but I’m not expecting much from this Denver offense against Cleveland’s top-ranked pass defense.

Christian Watson (GB). Consider me out on Watson. A touchdown salvaged his day last week, but Watson only had four targets and he has cleared 40 receiving yards just once in seven games. Although Detroit isn’t a bad matchup, Watson is the third-best fantasy wideout on his own team and can be sat.

TIGHT END

Tier 1: Lineup locks

— Travis Kelce (KC)

— T.J. Hockenson (MIN)

— Dalton Kincaid (BUF)

— George Kittle (SF)

— Sam LaPorta (DET)

— Evan Engram (JAX)

— Trey McBride (ARI)

— Dalton Schultz (HOU)

Tier 2: Probable starters

Jake Ferguson (DAL) was quiet last week, but we’ll cut him some slack after three straight top-eight finishes. He remains a premier red zone target for one of the league’s very best offenses — one that carries a massive 30.5-point implied team total into Thursday’s game against the Commanders. He’s almost an auto-start.

David Njoku (CLE). Cleveland’s offense as a whole took a step back with Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center, but Njoku thrived. He had a staggering 15 targets last week and has paced the Browns in target share during both of DTR’s starts. Averaging a stellar 7.8 yards after the catch, expect another heavy workload operating as his rookie quarterback’s safety blanket.

Cole Kmet (CHI). It’s been a quiet past two weeks for Kmet, but his arrow is firmly pointed up with Justin Fields back under center. Kmet has had a 20.2% target share in Fields’ six healthy starts this season, so he almost has to be in lineups against a Vikings defense that allows the 11th-highest target rate to the position.

Logan Thomas (WSH) isn’t the top option in Washington, but his 15% target share is more than enough to deliver fantasy relevance when Sam Howell is airing it out more than 40 times per game. Dallas quietly allowed the second-most adjusted fantasy points per target to opposing tight ends, making Thomas a sneaky-strong option in Week 12.

Tier 3: On the fence

Taysom Hill (NO). A quiet Week 10 followed by New Orleans’ bye week may have some people fading Hill. Don’t be one of those people. There’s some risk involved here as the Saints only have a 20.5-point total, but Hill’s unique role gives him unmatched upside at the position.

Isaiah Likely (BAL). With Mark Andrews out, Likely instantly becomes fantasy-relevant. He’s been quiet this season, but notably had a 25.8% target share and averaged 13.3 fantasy points per game as the starter last season. While there’s some risk involved, the Chargers allow the ninth-most adjusted fantasy points per target to tight ends. Likely’s a top streaming option.

Kyle Pitts & Jonnu Smith (ATL). Although you’re throwing a dart starting Pitts or Smith, the matchup is at least decent. Not only are the Falcons at home, but they’re up against the Saints. New Orleans has allowed the sixth-highest target rate and second-furthest average depth of target to opposing tight ends. Pitts quietly had a 27.8% target share in their final game before the bye, so he’s my preferred option of the two.

Tier 4: Sit if possible

Cade Otton (TB). There aren’t any tight ends you absolutely can’t start this week, but Otton is my least favorite of those under consideration. Despite being on the field for more than 95% of snaps, Otton continues to hover around a 10% target share. Week 9’s outburst looks more and more like a fluke, so I’m good to fade Otton against a Colts defense that’s top-10 in adjusted fantasy points allowed to tight ends.

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