- Economic conditions in Russia are similar to those of the Soviet Union, IMF’s deputy manager said.
- The country is spending heavily while consumption has seen a considerable pullback.
The International Monetary Fund’s upgraded forecast for Russia’s growth isn’t an endorsement of good times ahead for Moscow, the institution’s managing director told CNBC.
In fact, Russian economic conditions are starting to look more and more like the country’s 20th-century predecessor, where high production levels clashed with weak demand.
“That is pretty much what the Soviet Union used to look like,” Kristalina Georgieva said at the World Governments Summit in Dubai. “High level of production, low level of consumption. I actually think that the Russian economy is [in] for very tough times, because of the outflow of people and because of the reduced access to technology that comes with the sanctions.”
It’s a bearish take that’s not outright clear in the IMF’s figures. The organization doubled its forecast for Russian growth in 2024, boosting its prediction from 1.1% to 2.6% in January. That marks the biggest jump for any country.
But heavy wartime spending is the central driver of this growth, and not necessarily a reflection of a robust economy. The country’s defense and security spending is estimated to account for roughly 40% of Russia’s entire budget this year, as the Kremlin works to keep pressure up in its war on Ukraine.
“This pivot toward a militarized economy threatens social and developmental needs,” Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center scholar Alexandra Prokopenko wrote in Foreign Affairs last month. To meet its expenditures, the state has depleted the liquid assets in Russia’s national wealth fund by over 44% since the February 2022 invasion.
At the same time, the two-year conflict has significantly reduced Russia’s labor supply, with the country 5 million workers short in 2203, a December report calculated. While some workers were pulled to fight in Ukraine, over 800,000 are estimated to have fled the country.
This has weighed heavily on Russia’s economy, with workforce vacancies hitting 6.8% in mid-2023. The fact that many of those leaving are highly-skilled and educated may end up reducing Russian living standards to on-par with former Soviet republics, the Atlantic Council projected in August.
While the Ukraine war keeps Russian spending up, a recent intelligence update from the UK Ministry of Defence expects the regime to miss its revenue targets for 2024. While oil and gas revenue traditionally keep the country afloat, MOD expects that the Kremlin will have to impose austerity measures to stay funded, raising taxes and increasing debt.
News Related-
Anurag Kashyap unveils teaser of ‘Kastoori’
-
Shehar Lakhot: Meet The Intriguing Characters Of The Upcoming Noir Crime Drama
-
Watch: 'My name is VVS Laxman...': When Ishan Kishan gave wrong answers to right questions
-
Tennis-Sabalenka, Rybakina to open new season in Brisbane
-
Sikandar Raza Makes History For Zimbabwe With Hattrick A Day After Punjab Kings Retain Him- WATCH
-
Delayed Barapullah work yet to begin despite land transfer
-
Army called in to help in tunnel rescue operation
-
FIR against Redbird aviation school for non-cooperation, obstructing DGCA officials in probe
-
IPL 2024 Auction: Why Gujarat Titans allowed Hardik Pandya to join Mumbai Indians? GT explain
-
From puff sleeves to sustainable designs: Top 5 bridal fashion trends redefining elegance and style for brides-to-be
-
The Judge behind China's financial reckoning
-
Arshdeep Singh & Axar Patel Out, Avesh Khan & Washington Sundar IN? India's Likely Playing XI For 3rd T20I
-
Horoscope Today, November 28, 2023: Check here Astrological prediction for all zodiac signs
-
'Gurdwaras are...': US Sikh body on Indian envoy's heckling by Khalistani backers