Crunching The Numbers: Math Behind NDA's Mission 400 And INDIA Bloc's Counter

lok sabha election 2024 crunching the numbers: math behind nda’s mission 400 and india bloc’s counter explained

New Delhi: With just days left for the first phase of Lok Sabha elections to commence on April 19, political parties are leaving no stone unturned to woo the voters. The BJP led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi is confident that it will again return to power for the record third term and that it will further enhance its 2019 Lok Sabha tally and breach the 370 mark, a symbolic figure which highlights the party’s decision to abrogate Article 370 from Jammu and Kashmir. The NDA has set itself an ambitious target of 400 plus for the upcoming polls.

To counter the BJP-led NDA blitzkrieg, the Opposition parties this time decided to come under one umbrella as they formed the INDIA Bloc — a culmination of 28 parties from across the nation to counter the Modi juggernaut. Though the political pundits have predicted that Modi 3.0 is all but certain, all eyes are on how team INDIA fares against the mighty BJP and whether it can even dent the saffron party’s prospects in the upcoming general elections.

To understand how exactly things stand for both NDA and the INDIA bloc ahead of the crucial elections, let’s see this whole equation in terms of how numbers are stacked against each other.

2019 Lok Sabha Results

In 2019, the BJP secured a majority on its own, winning 303 seats, an increase from 282 in 2014. During that election, the party dominated the Hindi belt and secured the majority of seats in the Northeast, although its presence was limited to Karnataka in the south. In contrast, the Congress only managed to secure 52 seats.

In 2019, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) had a total of 332 MPs, with an additional 28 members from the INDIA alliance. However, since then, the composition of the NDA has undergone significant changes, losing support from regional parties such as the AIADMK, JD(U), Shiv Sena (UBT) and Akali Dal.

Current Scenario

Currently, the BJP holds 290 MPs within the NDA, with at least 12 of them relinquishing their seats to contest recent state elections. The largest partner within the coalition is the Shiv Sena, led by Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, with 13 MPs.

On the other hand, the MPs within the INDIA bloc are distributed among various parties. While the Congress remains the largest group with 48 MPs, significant regional parties like the DMK (24 MPs) and Trinamool Congress (22 MPs), also contribute substantially to the bloc.

Geographically, the NDA’s presence spans across the country, except for the South. Meanwhile, the INDIA bloc wields significant influence in several states, including Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Kerala, and Bihar.

BJP’s ‘Mission South’ Still A Distant Dream?

A recent survey by Matrize NC has projected that the BJP, traditionally a marginal player in the South, could win 22 Lok Sabha seats in the upcoming elections, with 21 of them coming from Karnataka, the party’s stronghold in the region.

Union Minister Piyush Goyal expressed optimism about the BJP’s prospects in South India, highlighting the emergence of strong leadership in the region. He cited K Annamalai in Tamil Nadu as a significant figure and also highlighted Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s increasing popularity in the state. Goyal also noted dissatisfaction with the incumbent governments in Kerala, suggesting a potential resurgence for the BJP in the region.

However, the survey suggests a less favourable outcome for the BJP in Andhra Pradesh and Kerala, where the party is expected to struggle to secure seats. In Andhra Pradesh, the BJP has formed an alliance with Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party and Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena Party, although internal discord has arisen over the allocation of Lok Sabha seats.

In Tamil Nadu, the BJP has nominated prominent figures such as state BJP chief Annamalai and former union minister Pon Radhakrishnan to contest in the elections.

Similarly, in Kerala, the party has fielded Union Ministers Rajeev Chandrasekhar and V Muralidharan, as well as actor Suresh Gopi, in a bid to secure its first electoral win in the state. BJP state chief K Surendran, known for challenging Congress MP Rahul Gandhi in the Wayanad Lok Sabha constituency, has also been renominated.

BJP Banks Big On Hindi Heartland, States That Really Matter For The Saffron Party

UP To Play Pivotal Role For BJPUttar Pradesh is likely to emerge as a pivotal state in shaping the BJP’s anticipated electoral triumph, with the BJP projected to win a staggering 77 out of the total 80 seats in the state, according to Matrize NC survey. The projected seats surpass its 2019 tally and further consolidate its position in the state and nationwide.

Nitish Kumar’s Return May Boost NDA’s ProspectsWith Bihar Chief Minister and Janata Dal (United) leader Nitish Kumar flip-flopping his way back to the BJP-led NDA only a year and a half after he had quit, the BJP sees better winnability in the state which sends 40 MPs to the Lok Sabha. In the 2019 Lok Sabha election in Bihar, the BJP won 17 seats, the JD(U) won 16, and the RJD won none (despite a sizeable vote share of over 15%).

This time, the BJP-led NDA is poised to win 35 seats out of 40 in Bihar in the Lok Sabha Elections.

How Ajit Pawar And Eknath Shinde May Help BJP In MaharashtraThe National Democratic Alliance, or NDA, has reportedly finalised its seat-sharing arrangement in Maharashtra, with the BJP set to contest 26 seats in the state. The seat-sharing arrangement includes 12-14 seats to the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and 5 seats to Ajit Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), according to media reports.

According to a recent survey conducted by ETG Research, the BJP is projected to win between 27 to 31 seats out of the total 48 seats.

Mamata Banerjee Poised to Thwart BJP in Bengal?

According to the Materize survey, Trinamool Congress (TMC) leader Mamata Banerjee is expected to clinch a decisive win in West Bengal. Opting to contest alone in the state, Banerjee is projected to secure 26 out of the 42 available seats, strengthening her position for another term as Chief Minister.