Bengali Muslims Joining BJP Rallies — A Trend Congress Should Worry About

In the second phase of the Lok Sabha polls, Assam saw a turnout of 77.35%. Five seats spreading across the state’s southern part Barak Valley, Central Assam, and North Assam went for voting in the second phase. The seats are the two seats of the Barak Valley — Karimganj and Silchar (SC) — the two seats of Central Assam — Diphu (ST) and Nagaon — and the Darrang-Udalguri seat of North Assam.

Of these, it is the Nagaon seat that has been the centre of discussion. The polling percentage in this seat was 80.56%. This seat was a bastion of the BJP, which won it four consecutive times from 1999 to 2014. It was in 2019 that the Congress was able to stop the BJP’s winning streak on this seat as the grand old party’s Pradyot Bordoloi defeated the four-time MP from this seat, Rajen Gohain. It was the support of All India United Democratic Front led by Baddruddin Ajmal that helped Pradyot Bordoloi to pull off this victory.

This time, Nagaon is considered to be among the safest seats for the Congress. Reportedly, the party’s leader Gaurav Gogoi wanted to contest this seat, but ultimately, he was shifted by the party to the Jorhat seat of Upper Assam, where voting took place in the first phase. This happened as Pradyot Bordoloi was unwilling to cede his seat. He reportedly had even opened his negotiation channels with the BJP. To prevent any more exodus, the Congress high command zeroed in on Pradyot for Nagaon.

This seat after delimitation has become a Muslim-majority seat with Muslims accounting for around 58% of the voting population. However, this time, the seat — considered the safest seat for the Congress — doesn’t seem to be easy for the grand old party with no support from AIUDF. Instead, Ajmal’s party has fielded a strong candidate, Aminul Islam, who is the party’s general secretary and MLA of the Dhing constituency — part of the Nagaon Lok Sabha.

Amid this, Congress has another reason to worry. This is about the growing trend of Bengali Muslims shifting towards the BJP. This was seen in the rallies conducted by Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma in Laharighat and Samaguri — both Muslim-majority assembly segments. In his rallies, there was a significant number of Muslims. Clearly, the narrative that areas dominated by Bengali-Muslim voters would not vote for the BJP is gradually becoming a thing of the past.

BJP’s candidate Suresh Borah had tried his best to woo Muslim voters during his election campaign. Irrespective of the BJP’s ability to win Nagaon, the trend of Bengali Muslims joining the rallies of the saffron in large numbers indicates a churn within the community to start a new beginning by mending its strained relations with the Hindutva-based BJP in the northeastern state of Assam.

Why Is Pradyot Debbarma In Tripura BJP Vice-President’s Crosshairs?

This week, Patal Kanya Jamatia, one of the vice-presidents of the Tripura BJP, lashed out at ally TIPRA Motha’s founder Pradyot Kishore Debbarma on the last day of the campaigning for the Tripura East Lok Sabha seat, which went to voting yesterday. The turnout was 79.66% up to the time of writing. The tribal leader termed Pradyot as the “political broker” and called BJP’s candidate Kriti Devi Debbarma — elder sister of Pradyot — as the “agent of the political broker”.

She stated that the party’s candidate couldn’t be supported. Not only this, she even accused Pradyot of “spreading hatred and indulging in divide and rule politics among communities, people, and parties.” This personal attack on Pradyot comes after reportedly Pradyot took a jibe at Patal Kanya without naming her in Ampinagar for joining the BJP.

It has to be mentioned that Patal Kanya was once known as the right hand of Pradyot during the initial days of the TIPRA Motha. Later, she became his rival. In 2022, ahead of the state assembly elections, to expand its base in the tribal belt, the BJP welcomed Patal Kanya along with her supporters as a rival against Pradyot’s Motha in the hills. She was projected as one of the prominent tribal faces.

Notably, her party — Tripura People’s Front — didn’t merge with the BJP, despite many of her supporters joining the saffron party along with her. She was even given the ticket from Ampinagar seat, reserved for the Scheduled Tribes, in the last assembly polls. But she lost to TIPRA Motha’s Pathan Lal Jamatia. However, she was later made the chairperson of the Tribal Rehabilitation and Plantation Corporation. In the organisational rejig that took place last December, when many of Biplab Deb loyalists found their place, she was made one of the six vice-presidents of the saffron party.

However, since Pradyot’s TIPRA Motha joined the BJP-led NDA state government, she has been keeping a low profile. Since then, there have been speculations about her career within the saffron party. Now, by openly attacking BJP’s ally Pradyot, that too on the last day of campaigning for the Tripura East (ST) seat, she has been able to make a return to the state’s politics by being in the headlines.

The BJP has already served a show-cause notice to her. But as of now, there has been no softening of her stand against Pradyot. It means that she herself wants the saffron party to take action against her and force her to start her party, TPF, and capitalize on the anti-Motha sentiments and fill the void in the hills created by Motha’s joining to the NDA.

Tripura East’s Lower Turnout Could Be BJP’s Headache 

The turnout in the Tripura East (ST) constituency was 79.66%. This figure was significantly less than the turnout of 90.1% in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. This low(er) turnout is definitely going to be a topic for brainstorming for both the ruling and Opposition camps. For the ruling coalition, this turnout would be a cause of worry as there has been resentment within the rank and file of both the BJP and the TIPRA Motha over the alliance’s candidate Kriti Devi Debbarma. The outburst of Patal Kanya Jamatia against Pradyot is an example of that resentment within a section of the BJP.

The Ampinagar assembly constituency saw the lowest turnout — 71.68% — among all the assembly constituencies. A polling booth with a total of 645 voters in this constituency boycotted the elections, alleging that the village road remains unrepaired. Only one vote was cast in this booth. The allegation also put a question mark on the claims of development being done by the BJP government in the last six years. This unfortunate development also raises questions about the three-year rule of the TIPRA Motha in the Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council.

The lower turnout in Ampinagar may also be due to Patal’s loyalists not turning towards the polling booths. She contested this seat last time and lost by a large margin to TIPRA Motha. But she does have some influence in this seat — as well as in the other tribal-dominated seats.