Could a volcanic winter cool down Earth? New study has the answer

As the world suffers from the growing impact of global warming and climate change, researchers are looking at new ways to keep the planet cool. However, their plans to look at super-eruptions as a way to block sunlight particles are not going to yield the results.Â

Research has confirmed that sunlight-blocking particles from an extreme eruption will not be able to cool the surface temperature of the planet as severely as previously estimated.Â

The idea came from the Toba volcano explosion in Indonesia about 74,000 years ago which was 1,000 times more powerful than the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens. Scientists have been trying to understand to what degree that extreme explosion might have cooled global temperatures.

ICeland volcano

To qualify as a super eruption, a volcano must release more than 1,000 cubic kilometers of magma. These eruptions are extremely powerful – and rare. The most recent super-eruption occurred more than 22,000 years ago in New Zealand.Â

Volcanic winter, a climatic cooling effect caused by large-scale volcanic eruptions, has long been studied to understand its effects.  Previous studies agreed that some planet-wide cooling would occur but diverged on how much. Estimates have ranged from 2 to 8 degrees Celsius.Â

Researchers from Nasa have now used  advanced computer modeling to simulate super-eruptions like the Toba event. They found that post-eruption cooling would probably not exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius.Â

“The relatively modest temperature changes we found most compatible with the evidence could explain why no single super-eruption has produced firm evidence of global-scale catastrophe for humans or ecosystems,” said lead author Zachary McGraw.Â

ICeland volcano

The team delved into understanding the factors influencing climate shifts without clear historical records. Focusing on microscopic sulfur particles injected into the stratosphere, their study aimed to unravel the complex interplay of these particles, formed from sulfur dioxide gas during volcanic eruptions.Â

These particles possess a dual impact on Earth’s surface temperature, either reflecting incoming sunlight for cooling or trapping outgoing heat for a greenhouse warming effect. The researchers underscored the challenge of estimating particle size due to the lack of reliable evidence from past super-eruptions.Â

Simulating scenarios, they found that super-eruptions might not drastically alter global temperatures more than modern large eruptions. The study highlights the ongoing mysteries surrounding super-eruption cooling, emphasising the need for further research and comprehensive model comparisons in understanding the intricacies of volcanic aerosol particles.Â

Despite uncertainties, the study suggests caution in considering geoengineering through stratospheric aerosol injection as a viable solution for global warming.Â

Luis Millan, an atmospheric scientist, encourages more research into the factors determining volcanic aerosol particle sizes.Â

The findings are published in the Journal of Climate.

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