Allies must accept we are in ‘a pre-war world’, says Shapps

Italian marines take position during an amphibious assault demonstration as part of a Nato exercise in Norway last month – Jonathan Nackstrand/AFP

Nato countries that do not spend two per cent of GDP on defence spending are playing “Russian roulette” with the West’s future, Grant Shapps has warned.

In an article for The Telegraph to mark the military alliance’s 75th anniversary, the Defence Secretary argued that allies must accept we are now in “a pre-war world”.

Last year, just 11 Nato members met its two per cent target, first set almost two decades ago, with France and Germany among the nations that spent less on defence.

That figure is expected to rise to 18 this year, with Paris and Berlin recently announcing that they will hit the target in 2024 – but others in the 32-nation alliance have not done so.

Mr Shapps wrote: “We must look beyond that target to shore up our defences. Yet some nations are still failing to meet even the two per cent. That cannot continue. We can’t afford to play Russian roulette with our future.”

Referring to Nato’s anniversary, he said: “Paying tribute to Nato’s past is not enough. Today we must give urgent thought once again to the alliance’s future. We have moved from a post-war to a pre-war world.”

Lord Cameron, the Foreign Secretary, delivered a similar message on Wednesday during a two-day trip to Brussels for a Nato summit of foreign ministers.

He told allies spending two per cent on defence was the “best way to prepare for the American elections in the autumn”, in a clear reference to the possibility of a Donald Trump victory.

Mr Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, triggered outrage in February when he said he would “encourage” Russia to attack Nato members who were not hitting the spending target.

In a speech at a Royal United Services Institute conference in Brussels later on Wednesday, Lord Cameron raised concerns that younger people are not as pro-Nato as they were during the Cold War, saying: “We have to win the argument with Nato all over again with a new generation.”

He also warned that Nato would face a “very bleak future” if its allies allowed Vladimir Putin to succeed in Ukraine.

The tough messages to Nato allies come as the Conservative Party is locked in debate about how high to raise UK defence spending.

Currently, around 2.3 per cent of GDP is spent on defence. Rishi Sunak has an ambition to raise that to 2.5 per cent but has put no timeframe on when that would happen.

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Three former Tory defence secretaries – Sir Michael Fallon, Sir Gavin Williamson and Ben Wallace – told The Telegraph last month that they want a three per cent election manifesto pledge.

No extra money was announced for the Ministry of Defence in the Budget last month, triggering a backlash from some Tories and former soldiers.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has proved a major test for Nato and triggered a step change in approach for some nations. Two new countries have joined, Finland in 2023 and Sweden this year. Other nations – most notably Germany – have announced major increases in defence spending.

The 11 nations that hit the two per cent Nato target last year were the UK, the US, Denmark, Slovakia, Hungary, Latvia, Finland, Lithuania, Estonia, Greece, and Poland.

The US spent the second most on defence, at 3.2 per cent, of GDP – much more than the UK as a proportion of the economy – with Poland spending the most, at 3.9 per cent.

Jens Stoltenberg, the Nato general secretary, said the target was due to be hit by 18 member nations in 2024 but did not name them.

Mr Shapps warned: “Russia is menacing our neighbours. China is increasingly belligerent. Iran is using its proxies to cause regional havoc from the Middle East to the straits of Yemen. North Korea is perpetually rattling its nuclear sabre. Increasingly, these malign powers are aligning and our democracy is in their crosshairs.

“Seventy-five years ago George Orwell painted a terrifying picture of a world without Nato. Today, we live in a more dangerous age. Once more, autocratic Big Brothers are seeking to divide us.

“But we have a big advantage. Today our alliance is bigger, stronger and more experienced than ever. And as long as we stand together, we’ll guarantee that Orwellian ending never comes to pass.”

Lord Cameron warned: “There is another future for Nato, for the West. And that is one where we allow Putin to succeed and the celebrations will be held mostly in Moscow, and, of course, Beijing, Tehran and North Korea.

“That is a very bleak future, not only because I believe other European countries would be at risk, but I think all of the world would look around in America, Britain and other European powers when we stand up for our allies, how reliable are we and even the absolute key to Nato, article five.

“Allies in Europe would start looking at each other and wondering how much they could really trust each other.”

In February, Mr Trump, who could be the US president come January if he defeats the incumbent Joe Biden, described a conversation with a leader of a Nato country about whether the US would protect it if it did not pay two per cent and Russia attacked.

Mr Trump said: “I said: ‘You didn’t pay? You’re delinquent?’… ‘No I would not protect you, in fact, I would encourage them to do whatever they want. You gotta pay’.” He has since insisted he would not pull the US out of Nato.

Meanwhile, Labour has doubled down on its support for Nato in an article for The Telegraph by David Lammy, the shadow foreign secretary, and John Healey, the shadow defence secretary.

They wrote: “Labour’s commitment to Nato is unshakeable, alongside our total support for our nuclear deterrent, which we maintain on behalf of our Nato allies.”

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