ABP-CVoter Survey Predicts NDA May Fall Short Of 400-Seat Target, But Crushing Defeat In Store For Congress

New Delhi: The much-awaited ABP-CVoter Opinion Poll, the last one before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, has shed light on the possible outcomes in various states. With a relatively large respondent base, the ABP-CVoter opinion survey makes some interesting predictions days ahead of the first phase of the elections. The survey has projected a total vote share of 46.6% for the BJP-led NDA, with the BJP likely to win 40.2% of the votes. The I.N.D.I.A bloc could follow close behind with a vote share of 39.8%. However, the Congress is unlikely to poll more than 19.2% votes on its own.

According to the ABP-CVoter survey, the BJP-led NDA may miss its ‘ab ki baar, 400 paar [This year, 400+ seats]’ target but is projected to clinch a thumping victory, winning 373 out of the total 543 seats. The BJP is projected to win 323 seats on its own, a rise of 20 seats since the last Lok Sabha polls, and comfortably beyond the majority mark of 272.

The Congress, meanwhile, is projected to make a marginal gain over its 52-seat tally of 2019. The party may win 65 seats on its own in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, while its allies from the erstwhile UPA may win 59 constituencies, giving the ‘UPA combine’ a total seat count of 124. The ‘united Opposition’ bloc of I.N.D.I.A, comprising some more parties in various states, is projected to win a total of 155 seats.

Going by the survey figures, it seems Rahul Gandhi’s 2022-23 Bharat Jodo Yatra and then the two-month-long Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra this year have had very little impact on voters. The Congress, which had secured over 414 seats in one of the elections four decades ago, is finding it difficult to even score one seat in some states and union territories — like Delhi, Himachal, Andhra Pradesh, and others. The BJP juggernaut is projected to decimate the Congress in larger states like Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, and Chhattisgarh too. In at least 10 states and UTs, the Congress and its allies are unlikely to score on more than one seat.

The BJP’s projected victory is on account of big wins in some states like Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and West Bengal, among others, despite widespread protests by farmers and the Rajput community in several constituencies.

ABP-CVoter Opinion Poll: FULL COVERAGE

ABP-CVoter Opinion Poll Highlights In Key States 

Uttar Pradesh: No Surprises

In Uttar Pradesh, the largest state in terms of seats, the BJP-led NDA is projected to get 51% of the vote share. The I.N.D.I.A bloc, including mainly the Samajwadi Party, is likely to get a vote share of just 38%. Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party, Independents and others may rake in the rest of the votes. In terms of the seat share, the NDA is set for a thumping victory on 73 seats. The SP+ is slated to win the rest of the 7 seats in the 80-seat assembly.

Rajasthan & Gujarat: Clean Sweep

The BJP is looking at a clean sweep in Rajasthan, winning all the 25 constituencies. With no ally in Rajasthan, the BJP enjoys a large support base in the desert state. In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the BJP fell short of a clean sweep by 1 seat, winning 24. The Congress was reduced to zero seats and is unlikely to do any better this year either.

A clean sweep of 26 seats is predicted for the BJP in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state Gujarat too. The Congress is once again likely to draw a blank here.

Madhya Pradesh & Chhattisgarh: Clear Saffron Wave

Madhya Pradesh, where the BJP retained power in the assembly polls last year, is also likely to see a saffron wave, with the BJP projected to win 28 of the 29 seats. The Congress could manage to scrape 1 seat from the state, with a relatively decent 43.3% vote share.

In Chhattisgarh, the BJP is likely to keep its assembly elections momentum from last year going with a win on 10 out of the 11 Lok Sabha seats, leaving 1 constituency for the Congress. However, the vote share difference between the BJP and the Congress is not too much with the saffron party projected to get 49.8% of the votes against the latter’s 44.4%.

West Bengal: Neck And Neck

In West Bengal’s 42 seats, there is a close contest between the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the BJP. According to the survey, both TMC and BJP could win 20 seats each, leaving only two for the Congress. If these projections turn into results, it could be a setback for the TMC. In 2019, TMC won 22 seats and the BJP 18.

Odisha & Jharkhand: I.N.D.I.A Out

Out of the 21 seats in Odisha, the BJP could win 13 and the BJD 7. The Congress might win one seat.

In Jharkhand, out of the 14 seats, the BJP-led NDA is projected to win 13, leaving one for I.N.D.I.A.

Bihar: 2019 Rerun 

In Bihar’s 40 seats, the ‘Mahagathbandhan’ of BJP, JD(U), HAM, and RLM is predicted to win 33 seats, leaving 7 for the grand alliance of RJD, Congress, Left, and VIP. The NDA projection in Bihar shows it is likely to lose 6 seats compared to the 2019 elections, when the BJP-JD(U) alliance won 39 seats and the Congress one.

Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Telangana: The Outliers

The Congress, together with DMK, is projected to win all 39 seats in Tamil Nadu. AIADMK may not open its account, and the BJP is unlikely to make its mark despite all the hype. There was speculation earlier that the two parties will have a pre-poll alliance, but that did not work out.

In Kerala, the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) may draw a blank, and the BJP also stands little chance to open its account. Here, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is projected to capture all 20 Lok Sabha seats.

Telangana is projected to give the ruling Congress 10 out of the total 17 seats. Here, the BJP alliance could win 5 and TRS-AIMIM one seat each.

Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka: BJP Hope In South 

According to the ABP-C Voter survey, the BJP-JD(S) coalition in Karnataka appears to be gaining this time. Out of the 28 Lok Sabha seats, NDA could win 23, while the ruling Congress in the state could win only five.

In Andhra Pradesh, the NDA could achieve a significant victory, winning 20 seats, leaving five for the YSRCP.

What will happen in Delhi, Punjab And Haryana?

Despite a seat-sharing arrangement between the Congress and the AAP, the BJP could once again capture all seven seats in the national capital Delhi. The AAP, which has its government in Delhi, is contesting four seats, leaving 3 for I.N.D.I.A ally Congress.

In Punjab’s 13 seats, the Congress could win seven, the AAP four, and the BJP two seats. Here, the Shiromani Akali Dal, with a vote share of 16.5%, may not be able to open its account. Contesting in alliance with the BJP, the Akalis won 2 seats in 2019.

The BJP is projected to win 9 out of 10 seats in Haryana, with one seat going to I.N.D.I.A.

All Eyes On J&K And Ladakh  

Jammu and Kashmir will see the first Lok Sabha polls since it was stripped of its special status in 2019 when the Modi government abrogated Article 370. The I.N.D.I.A bloc could win three out of the five seats in the UT that wants its statehood back, leaving two for the BJP.

The UT of Ladakh, carved out of J&K state in 2019, is projected to go with the Congress this time.

Who Will Win In The Northeast?

In Assam, the ruling BJP appears to be significantly benefiting. Here, out of 14 seats, the NDA could win 12 and the Congress two. Prominent AIUDF does not appear to be opening its account here. Out of the other 11 seats in the Northeast, NDA could win 8, I.N.D.I.A two, and others one.

[Disclaimer: The survey findings and projections are based on CVoter Opinion Poll CATI interviews (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) conducted among 57,566 adults statewide, all confirmed voters between March 11 and April 12, 2024. The survey covered 543 Lok Sabha constituencies. The survey could have a margin of error (regional level) with a confidence level of 95%]