2024 Lok Sabha Polls: Will BJP Emerge Victorious In Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra & U.P.? | CNBC TV18

Even see where from where Anamala is contesting the voting percentage till about 1520 minutes minutes back was about four, four, 4, 1/2%. So that’s not a very enthusiastic vote percentage for somebody. If if he’s projecting himself and the BJP wants to project itself as a change agent, then there should be a higher vote percentage. So I think their vote percentage will go up in Tamil Nadu, unlikely to translate into many seats. That’s my perception of Tamil Nadu and overall I think this 35370 looks way off that what is reality on the ground. I’ve travelled a couple of states a few seats only but I think we definitely are having an election on. Its a game on. Its not like completely one sided or the because very interestingly it is people still own Narendra Modi as their Prime Minister but people are dissatisfied with their MP and they want to change the MP. And if many constituencies do that, then Narendra Modi may still become the Prime Minister, but not with the kind of margin BJP is talking about. All right Mr. Srivastava, since you mentioned Mr. Annamalai, how do you see that? You know that’s going to be the big focal point in Tamil Nadu. You know if he can win and if he can win by a decent margin, that stamps his presence as you know the state head. So what are his chances? You know, how do you expect him to fare? See, the only thing I will say is Coimbatore is the only seat which the BJP has won in the past in Tamil Nadu and Anamalai is being talked about. Is this great New Hope? A young persons educated person, I, I TITS officer background coming in with new brand of politics taking on the established order in Tamil Nadu which was a two party system, AIDMK and DMK. Breath of pressure as not a family background person unlike A Stalin or earlier leaders. But will that translate into a win or a near win or a good fight is something I would really be not able to say because it’s very tough. So BJP is very good at creating a perception and talking about it. But on ground and Tamil Nadu being a new ground, a new area for them to get a higher percentage of votes is one thing. To win seats would be very different from that. So I would, I would wait till June 4th on that. Sanjeev hi. Good morning. So how what about Maharashtra? Santi was telling us. I mean, this is a complex and an interesting one. What are you picking up? So Maharashtra from most people I am speaking to is again a very tough state. So the BJP has got both the NCP and Sena with it. But the question is are the voters seeing at the BJP with the real Sena or real NCP or are they seeing it the BJP with the with that kind of a lens that you OK, you broke Sena and you broke NCP So and there’s a lot of talk which one hears about sympathy for Udhav and Sharad Pawar. Now again, whether sympathy turns into votes, whether they still have the organization muscle to get their supporters sympathizer to an polling booth, whether Ajit Pawars well known muscle, might as an organizational person translate into votes for his party. These things are all very difficult to guess. But clearly its not an easy thing for BJP and its allies. Its not an easy state. It will be a tough contest. What I’m making out of this election Prashanth is that this is a real election. A street by St. battle is on. In many places, BJP still has an edge. People still want Prime Minister Modi as their Prime Minister for the third term. But are they voting on the ground for their M PS? Are local issues dominating on the national issue of seeing Modi as the Prime Minister again for the third time? So like in Rajasthan, I see a lot of people wanting Mr. Modi but very dissatisfied with their M PS. And Mr. Modi is having to contest local issues, local candidates, local perceptions, local mood swings. So that’s the that’s the real context. That’s where somewhere it is helpful for the opposition that they don’t have a face being projected. So if it was a Rahul Gandhi or anyone else against Mr. Modi, it would have been so much easier for the BJP and Mr. Modi. Now with a lack of clarity on who is the vocal for the alternative, it has become somewhat more muddled and easier for the opposition on the ground. If you can understand what I’m trying to say, no, no, I I get it. And we have Nina Sheit also with us. We were hoping to sort of get you on little earlier, but tell us, I mean we’ve been talking about, we talked about Tamil Nadu, we talked about Maharashtra and a little bit about other states. You might have sort of heard what Sanjeev was telling us, but talk about All India. What is, what is the, what is the picture looking like? I mean its a long election, right all the way from now to the 1st of June. So but you know, BJP of course has been strong, dominant in its sort of core, not the Hindi heartland. Bell trying to make inroads into the South, Tamil Nadu, etc. Specifically, what is your number, if I can sort of boil it down to that enough. The number for the whole election? Yes, for the whole election. Well, I don’t know, I mean you know, I know the suits there, but I would still say that you know, the, the fact of the matter is that its a little bit of history repeating. There is, I think there are three issues here. One is the direct connection of Narendra Modi with the voter which in the general election the Indian elite has generally you know under, under, under, understood. There is this first time since Nehru, I would say that there is a Prime Minister who has a direct connection with the voter. The second, I would say, you know it’s very important to realize that in the global slowdown the Indian economy is doing relatively well. Direct transfers, you know, agricultural relief and all other images, we will, we will now be seeing how they add up because, you know, bear in mind, it is not easy in a fractured country like India with so many different, if you like, many qualities to go in for a third single party majority that I think is quite unprecedented. It is, it’s simply, you know, unimaginable. So, you know, As for this particular phase of the elections, I think it’s very interesting that in the Northeast, BJP is the dominant party. You know, it wasn’t so even in the last election. I think in Tamil Nadu, BJP has only 3.7%, you know, vote share. I am not really sure whether it will score even a single, you know, MP there. But the point is not that. The point is that if it dramatically increases this vote share then the Southern, you know, comfort starts settling in. Finally, one more thing I would like to say that you know, the, the, the impact of, you know, a lot of lot of people are saying that, you know, the impact of the Ram Mandir has sort of faded away. I do not agree with you. You know, as countries become richer, for example, and this is not, you know, new for India. If you look at Germany, Germany when it became a $3 trillion economy ever ever since then it is ruled by a party called the Christian Democrats. It is not a secular party. The parties name is Christian Democrats. In American elections, the South, you know the Christian S has a huge survey. So you know as people and and in India also we are getting more comfortable in our own skin. So. So I think the Ram Mandir is a very important issue in this election. No, no, no the the. So you know let’s just invert that question, right. BJP of course is extremely strong, has been very strong in the, in the, in the, in the north, right actually has been strong throughout, but north of course is the core voter base. So the point is can they become stronger or should we look at, I mean its the instrumental vote which matters, right. So is that, are they going to do better? Will they? What’s your sense in that sense? That’s why I started. Yeah, go on. Yeah, In Tamil Nadu, I do not see them making too much of A radical change in Karnataka. They are going to surprise everybody in my opinion and do very, very well. So you know Karnataka is the real key point. It’s the entry to the Deccan for for for, you know BJP. And it will be very interesting to see in my opinion how the Karnataka effect then translates going you know to Andhra Pradesh, going to Telangana. You know they’re all they’re doing three things there. They’re having a local leadership to rise. They are doing alliances for example with TDP, they so, so, so you know that it’s a work in progress. You know, my opinion in this election in from the last time their tally I think was 24 odd seats from in the South. I think it will definitely improve. But you’re not putting a number to it. I am not. I’m not saying, but I, you know, I would, I would say that it will probably cross 303232 parts. OK, Sanjeev, you want to put a number to it, the whole election number to the entire election. Yeah. OK, not that I know, but I still put one number that that is more like intuitive and my gut instinct. Yeah, I think it will be less than less than 2019. OK, that is not a that is not a number, but my number, my number is 322. OK, now we have 320. Another is inspired. Sanjeev is inspired in our 322, right? You know that’s right. And I am saying about about 272. And this is both of you talking about the BJP, right? Not the, not the alliance. That’s correct. OK, 3/23/22 for for Nina, then 2270 for the BJP, for the BJP. Got it. It’s a tsunami alert. It’s a tsunami alert out there. Sorry. OK, I think no, no. Nirath is saying there is a tsunami alert out there. So it is a wave. Well, if it is a wave then all bets are off. But where I travel I don’t see a wave. OK, it is a travel a bit more, you know many. And having said that, most I have only come to see a wave in hindsight. So I come out with that disclaimer as well. You know, some people have told us that it’s a quiet election this time. I mean, you know, on the ground there’s not too much. Usually it’s a is it because it’s just maybe too hot on the ground across the country. It’s also a long election, right? So you don’t want to peak early in that sense. Then Sanjeev, you go first, you sense that. And does that have any implications? It is surprisingly quiet, you know, you know, I would have worried in the sense that if you were an incumbent you sometimes do worry if its its quiet. But I I sense that you know there is sort of how do I say a new normal, you know, I mean its a new normal. There is you know the the opposition you know is does not exist from the Congress for example in many places just does not exist. When you do not have an organizational strength, when you are not there on the booth level, it becomes very difficult to mobilize. It becomes very it becomes very difficult, you know to mobilize the mood if you like to create, you know the the euphoria to to sort of you know and enchant your cadre to come out to to my in my opinion in the party systems collapse is in the opposition is very surprising. We should not. Interesting thing that you know for for example Samajwadi Party in Samajwadi Party ever since Akhilesh has taken over, he’s never won an election. You know it is one thing to inherit a party structure. It is quite another to make it work in a in a electoral way. I am not saying, you know they they don’t deliver to their constituencies one thing in an electoral outcome way. So. So that is very, very obvious that one of the reasons why it is so quiet is that the opposition, you know is just not existing on many in many places on the ground. It’s not quite in West Bengal for example, you know the TMC is a existing party which does existing political work. So you know it’s not quite in West Bengal at all. So you know I think that’s very important factor and why it is you know it is quiet another and since you gave the example of a tsunami let me let me add this is in the sea quietens down before a tsunami. So yes we will have to wrap this up here but you know we have your numbers and I have that written down South. We will have both of you back once we get into the thick of the as I said is a long election season and we will have you back again. You are not allowed to embarrass this later. No, no, no. All right. Thank you very much. I am a Gujarati banter. I am OK if I am embarrassed. Great. Speaking with both of you and getting that sort of sense and feel about, you know, how you’re looking at this election, Nina. Then Sanjeev, great having both of you and speak with you soon again. So that’s, you know, a little bit about the election and some of the numbers of course, which always make the headline.