Andhra Pradesh | On a knife-edge

On march 16, Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy paid homage at the memorial of his father and former CM Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy, on the family estate at Idupulupaya in Kadapa district before going on to announce the names of party contestants for the 175 assembly and 25 Lok Sabha seats in the state. Just hours later, though, his Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party (YSRCP) came in for a rude shock as the Election Commission (EC) announced that the state would go to the polls only in the fourth phase, and not the first, as had been the case in the past four elections. Any hope of running a short, sustained campaign leading to a triumphant election in April was shattered.

That the voting will now be on May 13 at the peak of summer is a worry, not just for the YSRCP but also for all the parties in the fray. A drop in the voter turnout could make for an unpredictable result, especially in a tight fight where the YSRCP is taking on the rival Telugu Desam Party (TDP)-led alliance consisting of the BJP and actor Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena, and also the Congress-Left combine. The latter, now led by Jagan’s sister Y.S. Sharmila in the state, are on a revival path but the jury is still out on whether the Andhra voters have forgiven the Grand Old Party for carving out Telangana—and their heart, Hyderabad—out of it.

Jagan has opted for a nuanced poll strategy, not hitting the road before announcing the names of his party candidates (which he kept shuffling until the last, based on internal surveys and opinion poll results). He did address four massive ‘Siddham (Ready)’ rallies beforehand, though, in each region of the state. Starting with Bheemili in Visakhapatnam on January 27, the venues were designed differently, with elevated ramps leading to the centre where Jagan stood and spoke. As he walked the ramp, frenzied followers went into overdrive taking selfies with the CM. Having created the initial momentum, Jagan is now following it up with ‘Memantha Siddham (We are all ready)’, a 21-day bus tour of all the districts, with multiple meetings, whistle-stops and a rally at the end of each day. The YSRCP campaign narrative presents Jagan as the lone hero, “Arjuna not Abhimanyu” (in his own words), fighting it out against the ‘Opposition villains’, who have “ganged up against him and the people”.

On the other side of the road, TDP chief N. Cha­nd­rababu Naidu is on a similar statewide ‘Praja Galam (Voice of the people)’ bus yatra, which, incidentally, was also flagged off on the same day—March 27. Since his 52-day incarceration in September-October 2023 in the skill development scam case, the 73-year-old Naidu has been all fire and brimstone, calling out Jagan’s “misrule” and listing the financial scandals he’s embroiled in in the courts (the YSRCP leader, too, had spent 16 months in jail in 2013-14, but had come out the stronger for it).

WITH THE PEOPLE: TDP chief Naidu campaigns in Chittoor, Mar. 26 (Photo: ANI)

Naidu is hoping the combined force of his alliance will be enough to edge out the YSRCP, like it did in 2014. Analysts point out that both sides are formidable, commanding vote shares of 45 per cent and above in elections since 2014. The NDA challenge is to ensure that the worm keeps inching up this time around.

The TDP has kept the lion’s share (17) of the 25 Lok Sabha seats in the state, conceding just six to the BJP and two to the JSP. In the 175-seat assembly, it is contesting in an overwhelming 144, with the JSP allotted 21 and the BJP 10. The TDP is also fielding several ‘resourceful’ candidates, including turncoats from the YSRCP and Congress, and will be hoping for a sustained campaign from them.

Jagan and Naidu represent two of the dominant castes in the state, and also hail from the same Rayalaseema region. The Reddys and Kammas make up just eight and five per cent of the population, respectively, but have much higher representation in the assembly compared to the numerically larger Other Backward Classes (OBCs). The Kapus, a forward caste of farmers, who also have strength in numbers, and the OBC cohorts have been pushing for reservations and a larger share of seats for some time now.

Jagan is calling the elections “a class war” and is betting on the slew of welfare schemes that he has launched for the disadvantaged to take him past the finish line. The 38 schemes have reached some 125 million beneficiaries (many of them for multiple schemes), and involved an investment of over Rs 4.2 lakh crore over four years (till January 2024). What differentiated it from other states was the elaborate Gram Sachivalayam and Ward Sachivalayam (GSWS) network that was set up for this. The GSWS volunteers did yeoman work during the Covid-19 containment phase and after in the doorstep delivery of welfare scheme benefits. The ‘welfare calendar’ with fixed timelines for delivery of services and transparent transfer of benefits (mostly online) have also endeared the YSRCP chief to the state’s marginalised sections.

Naidu has struggled to find fault with Jagan on this, though he has ensured that the Election Commission barred the 266,000 GSWS volunteers from the election process. With Jagan assuring his “young army” that they will be reappointed “in the first file after re-election”, many of them have now resigned and are officially working for the YSRCP. This is a setback for the TDP alliance as the volunteers have circumvented the EC fiat.

The TDP is targeting the ruling party on other governance aspects, though. “Remember, the YSRCP is a one-man show,” says B.V. Muralidhar, head of the department of political science at Sri Venkateswara University, Tirupati. “Its influence has declined since 2019 owing to anti-incumbency. The NDA coalition has been targeting it on issues like corruption, the sand and land mafia, incidents of atrocities against SCs/STs, lack of capital investments and for reneging on its promises to government employees.” Jagan’s plan of having three capitals for the administration, legislature and judiciary at Visakhapatnam, Amaravati and Kurnool, respectively, has also come in for flak, and is still awaiting judicial clearance.

However, on the vexatious issue of getting special category status (SCS) for Andhra Pradesh after the 2014 reorganisation, the TDP and its NDA allies are silent. The BJP is against granting it, apprehensive that it’ll raise similar claims in other parts of the country. The YSRCP is also avoiding the issue as it will need a working relationship with the BJP if each side finds itself in power post-polls in Andhra and New Delhi.

While the NDA is working on a common manifesto, the TDP has promised “a new vision for Andhra Pradesh with Super Six guarantees”. Naidu’s son and TDP national general secretary Nara Lokesh says it includes creating 2 million jobs for the youth and an unemployment allowance of Rs 3,000 a month until they secure one. “The Thalliki Vandanam scheme will provide Rs 15,000 a year to every schoolgoing child while farmers will get Rs 20,000 under the Annadata scheme,” he promises.

But there are other challenges. Inter-party coordination is still an ask with some sections of the BJP opposing the alliance with the TDP. “Campaign coordination and transfer of votes among allies are serious issues for the NDA, besides the SCS. The same alliance was in play in 2014 but they had broken up in 2018 over the BJP vetoing the SCS,” says E. Venkatesu of the department of political science at University of Hyderabad. “If there is no clarity on these issues, the NDA will come under enormous pressure.”

Social commentator D. Subramanyam Reddy describes the election battle in Andhra “as a vote to decide whether people want pragmatic grassroots governance (Jagan) or political ad hoc administration (Naidu)”. The latter, the longest serving chief minister of Andhra Pradesh (including the original and truncated versions), may not agree to the characterisation. In an emotional appeal to his Telugu biddas, Naidu has already announced that this will be his last election. Whether they heed his call remains to be seen. As for Jagan, his YSRCP is the team to beat this election. What is sure is that as the mercury rises, so will the acrimony on both sides.

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