General Election 2024: Who will win Somerset showdown as Jacob Rees-Mogg fights to avoid defeat by Labour?

Millions of voters across the country will go to the polls on July 4 to elect the new Government. The Standard is looking at key seats to watch in London and beyond, and has published an interactive map for the capital. Here we turn the spotlight further West, on:

North East Somerset and Hanham

Candidates for main parties (in alphabetical order):

Edmund Cannon - Green Party

Paul MacDonnell - Reform UK

Dan Norris - Labour

Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg - Conservatives

Dine Romero - Liberal Democrats

Summary: This contest represents a rematch after Jacob Rees-Mogg defeated Labour’s Dan Norris - who had been an MP for 13 years - in North East Somerset in 2010.

The seat has now been abolished and supplanted by a new one called North East Somerset and Hanham. After three years as the directly elected mayor for the West of England, the Somerset-born Mr Norris is scenting revenge against one of the most recognisable figures of 14 years of Conservative rule.

The patrician Sir Jacob, an arch-Brexiteer who was an enthusiastic rebel against David Cameron, was a surprise elevation to the Cabinet as Leader of the House of Commons after Boris Johnson took power, and was knighted in the fallen PM’s controversial resignation honours list.

Usually unafraid to embrace controversy himself, the old Etonian was forced to apologise after claiming that victims of the Grenfell Tower fire in west London failed to use “common sense” when they heeded Fire Brigade advice and stayed in the burning building.

Wards: Bitton & Oldland Common; Chew Valley; Clutton & Farmborough; Hanham; High Littleton; Keynsham East; Keynsham North; Keynsham South; Longwell Green; Mendip; Parkwall & Warmley; Paulton; Publow & Whitchurch; Saltford; Timsbury.

Constituency map of North East Somerset and Hanham (© OpenStreetMap contributors | © CARTO)

I’m not sure if I’m in this constituency: Here’s how you can check

Boundary changes impact: The abolition of his old constituency has deprived Sir Jacob of a majority of 14,729.

The absorption of Hanham and parts of the abolished Labour-held seat of Kingswood on the edge of Bristol, coupled with the removal of staunchly Conservative districts, had made it much harder for the Tory to hold on.

It is even harder now given the apparent national desire to sweep Labour into power.

YouGov MRP poll prediction: Labour gain.

Evening Standard view: During various parliamentary psycho-dramas of Boris Johnson’s reign, one image stood out.

It showed Sir Jacob stretched out, at ease, on the Commons front bench in his double-breasted suit. Opposition MPs accused him of showing contempt to them and to the country.

The anachronistic politician dubbed “The Honourable Member for the 18th Century” is set now to have more time to ease back on a chaise longue in his 1600s manor house, after his probable defeat by Mr Norris.

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