England do not expect to win the Euros – this is why they absolutely can

17/06/2024

It has been the well-chronicled England disease in past tournaments to arrive with an arrogance that they expect to win. That arrogance was always embarrassing and always without foundation, like a house built on sand, and they often quickly and painfully collapsed.

Those were the pre-Gareth Southgate years and whatever weaknesses the England manager may suffer from when it comes to tactical boldness and in-game changes – the stick that has been harshly used to beat him – he has undoubtedly transformed the culture and belief of the squad.

It means that England arrived – ahead of the 51 games that will be crammed into just 31 days at Euro 2024 – with genuine and well-deserved confidence that they are among the favourites.

Can they win it? “We believe we can do it,” defender Kieran Trippier said. “We don’t mean that in an arrogant way.”

The qualification from the 33-year-old, who is at his fourth tournament, is based on experience. Trippier scored the free-kick goal that gave England the lead in the 2018 World Cup semi-final – in that wholly unexpected, joyous run to the last four in Russia – and was involved in the last Euros campaign which ended in the heartache of a penalty shoot-out loss in the final to Italy. He was also there in Qatar just 18 months ago when it was a Harry Kane penalty miss and a quarter-final exit to France.

Just reeling off those past three tournaments bolsters hope that England can go far again. But while a European Championship never includes Argentina or Brazil it is, arguably, more difficult to win than a World Cup and this 17th edition looks more open and harder to predict than ever.

There is also the variant of fitness: it comes at the end of a long, gruelling campaign – unlike the last World Cup – and Southgate, like the other coaches, is fretting on just how fresh his squad will be.

But there does appear to be three groupings of potential winners with England and France, their nemesis from Qatar, the strongest candidates which makes their potential semi-final meeting in Dortmund on July 10 all the more monumental.

For that to happen it would require both nations to win their groups and while France are paired with the Netherlands and the well-organised, dangerous Ralf Rangnick-coached Austria, they should come through on top.

For England, a group made up of Serbia, Slovenia and Denmark is certainly navigable and there is the added incentive of winning it to potentially avoid hosts Germany in the last 16.

In fact, the winners of England’s group are guaranteed not to play the winners of another group until the semi-finals, at least. Just like with the winners of Group F, which should be Roberto Martinez’s Portugal, who will be in the other half of the draw.

The 24-nation format, with 16 teams going through to the knockout stages and all the various permutations for third-placed finishes, make the tournament path more difficult to predict. But England are potentially looking at Spain or Italy in the last eight and, if they proceed, France in the last four.

That has its history, of course. One of the criticisms of Southgate’s England is that they tend to come unstuck against the first major nation they meet: Croatia (when they were at their best), Italy and France have all knocked them out in previous tournaments (this argument conveniently forgets England defeated Germany at the last Euros while Colombia were no pushovers).

But France knew they got away with it in Qatar and England, despite their defensive concerns, are stronger now and can certainly prevail. A prediction? The Euros winners will come from whoever wins that semi-final, if it is between those two.

In the second group of potential winners lie Portugal, Germany and Spain. Portugal won all of their 10 qualification ties – the only team to do so – under Martinez who has transformed the mood, who has managed Cristiano Ronaldo well and who has a formidable array of talent available to him. They have the track record and it would appear that a semi-final place should be in their grasp.

Cristiano Ronaldo has a good relationship with Portugal coach Roberto Martinez (left) - Getty Images/Patricia De Melo Moreira

There they may meet Germany. Coach Julian Nagelsmann has also changed the atmosphere around the national team. Back-to-back wins against France and the Netherlands in March fuelled that belief. On Monday there was a goalless draw against Ukraine, but Germany dominated and had 25 attempts at goal. Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz playing as No10s behind Kai Havertz as a false nine looks exciting and there is suddenly a feel around the team similar to when Germany hosted the 2006 World Cup.

The first question for Spain – as it is with Italy and Croatia – is can they get through a tough group that also includes Albania? But the three-time winners would appear favourites to do so and once more look hard to beat. Expectations are low but they have Rodri, captain Alvaro Morata is playing well and there is the latest teen sensation in Barcelona’s brilliant Lamine Yamal – who still wears braces and only turns 17 the day before the final in Berlin.

Defending champions Italy are in the third grouping along with the Dutch and Belgium. England beat Italy in Naples, but new coach Luciano Spalletti has turned it around and, in his old-school way, has even tried to ban video games and phones from the training camp. More importantly, Spalletti is a seasoned coach and Italy will be disciplined.

That leaves the Dutch – who won the last Euros to be held in Germany in 1988 – and the talented but unpredictable Belgians, who should breeze through their group and showed how dangerous they are in the 2-2 draw at Wembley in March.

In truth, it is hard to see a winner emerging outside of those eight, but watch out for Austria, who could cause problems for France and the Netherlands and upset all the odds. If Germany do not start well, and their group is tricky as they open the tournament against Scotland, then they could be beset by angst.

England? If they go all the way it will be the first time they have not only won a trophy since 1966, but they will have reached a final that was not at Wembley. History is stacked against them but the odds are not. Defence is a big concern. England do not expect to win. But, this time, they can.

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Why England’s squad fits the bill as Euros winners

By Daniel Zeqiri

Experience may be losing its value as a footballing commodity, judging by recent managerial appointments and transfer fees speculated on precocious young talent. It is still considered important to success in international tournaments though, which makes Gareth Southgate’s turn to youth before Euro 2024 all the more interesting.

With coaching time scarce at international level, self-sufficient players who can organise their team-mates on the pitch and manage stress are considered key pillars of a winning team. Players learn emotional control as their careers progress, helping them avoid impetuous moments of ill-discipline that can harm a team in a knockout tie, as England know only too well.

After three strong tournament campaigns in 2018, 2021 and 2022, Southgate’s team look to be rounding into maturity. They head to Germany as bookmakers’ favourites for the tournament, but their squad are now less experienced through a combination of choice and circumstance.

Southgate lieutenants Harry Maguire and Jordan Henderson will not be in Germany, while trusted partners for Harry Kane such as Marcus Rashford and Raheem Sterling have fallen by the wayside. The decision to leave Jack Grealish at home sacrificed another experienced option with an impressive medal collection. Luke Shaw is in a race to prove his fitness.

Nevertheless, the average age of England’s squad remains in the range of World Cup and European Championship winners since 2010. England’s 26-man group for Germany has an average age of 26.5, which would only be the fourth-youngest squad across the eight tournaments. The youngest based on average age in this period were Spain’s 2010 World Cup winners.

When it comes to average caps per player, though, England’s squad would be the least experienced group to win a World Cup or Euros since 2010. At an average of 24.3 caps, England lag some way behind 2022 World Cup winners Argentina at 34.1. Spain’s Euro 2012 winners and Germany’s 2014 World Cup winners averaged more than 40 caps per squad member.

It should be noted that mean age or caps is an imperfect measure of experience. A 40-year-old third-choice goalkeeper who never plays can drag a squad’s average age up, likewise a wild-card selection such as 17-year-old Theo Walcott going to the 2006 World Cup. Lionel Messi’s 165 caps before the Qatar World Cup disguise the fact that key Argentina midfielders Alexis Mac Allister and Enzo Fernandez were relative novices with the national team.

Experience also comes in different forms, something aptly demonstrated by this England squad. Jude Bellingham, Champions League winner with Real Madrid, is one of the youngest players in the 26, but close to the first name on the team sheet. There is no question about his readiness to play in a tournament-winning team. There are older players in England’s squad who are taking a bigger step up in class.

Comparing England’s most likely XI position-by-position with previous winners, Jordan Pickford is squarely in the range of a tournament-winning goalkeeper at the age of 30 and with 61 caps to his name. He does not quite have the mountain of caps that Hugo Lloris or Iker Casillas boasted, but will be playing his fourth tournament. European Championship holders Italy won the tournament with 21-year-old Gianluigi Donnarumma in goal, but with 26 caps he was on a Bellingham-like trajectory.

Despite the absence of Maguire, England’s likely back four (assuming Shaw can feature prominently in Germany) will have an average age of almost 29 and an average of 51 caps per player. This is actually significantly more experience than the average age and caps of tournament-winning defences since 2010, despite Marc Guehi’s likely involvement. Italy’s centre-back partnership Leonardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini went into the last Euros with 209 caps between them, something unlikely to be matched. For France’s 2018 World Cup winners and Portugal’s Euro 2016 winners, three of their most-used back four had fewer than 20 caps.

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The presence of Bellingham, Adam Wharton and Kobbie Mainoo as England midfield options contributes significantly to the group’s apparent lack of experience. However, as stated, Bellingham is no ordinary 20-year-old. For the purposes of this exercise, Mainoo has been predicted to feature in England’s most-used midfield three with Bellingham and Declan Rice. Should that be the case, England’s midfield would have an average age of 21.3 and an average of 27 caps per player. This would be well below the averages for recent tournament-winning midfields, but it may just be that England have some outstanding prospects in this area. Nobody will be calling for Henderson or Kalvin Phillips to return.

England’s anticipated front three of Bukayo Saka, Harry Kane and Phil Foden is less experienced than other attacks since 2010 based on average age and caps. Kane, now 30, is at an age where centre-forwards tend to thrive in tournaments – see Olivier Giroud with France in 2018, Cristiano Ronaldo with Portugal in 2016 or Ciro Immobile with Italy in 2021. Saka and Foden are considered younger players, but in truth that stretches the definition. Both have more England caps than Shaw, and are in their third tournament squad. Saka has played more than 2,500 Premier League minutes in four consecutive seasons. Foden was voted Footballer of the Year last season and has six Premier League winner’s medals as well as a Champions League.

So while the headline averages may show an England squad that is younger than ideal, that is no reason to despair. England are blessed with “experienced youngsters”, who are among the best in Europe for their age. What Southgate’s squad have lost in years they may have gained in quality.

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