France: will Marine Le Pen's far-right perform as well in the legislative as in the EU elections?

Well, to unpack everything that's unfolding in French politics, I'm joined now by Jean Christophe Gaglion. He's a political scientist and communication strategist on campaigns and protests. Welcome to the programme and thanks so much for speaking to us. Let's start then, with the far right. Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella have been striking an optimistic tone. How likely in your opinion are they to perform in the upcoming legislative elections as successfully as they did in the EU elections? You know, you need to feel they have the momentum. They they have one part of the political offer in in in front that has a momentum coming out from the European election. We just finished this Sunday. So they probably could be in capacity at least to find a way of getting in. You know, we have a two round election this time and they they these these finals between two candidates on the second round could be their way to get at not, not not eventually at power, but at least to have a kind of majority which which we call relative majority, which could be in capacity to find allies to build a a government coalition. So this is something very unusual because at this time they had the capacity to the to be at least we have 560, I think again, deputies, MPs and, and, and, and probably they'd be in finals in second round in around 500 geographies. So this is a way of for them to be very, very, very in capacity to be effective as a, as a, as they've never been before, right. And meanwhile, Eric Ciotti has successfully challenged in the courts an attempt to oust him as the leader of the Republican. There's obviously so much division there. Where do, where do the conservatives go from here? Well, this, this is going to be very difficult because the, the, the election timing is very short. So they have a week to be injustice with, you know, elements to to show which has the right to go and campaign. But the campaign starts this Monday. So obviously there will be at least two les Republican offering with the same logo, one going with the the Assembly, one SNL, which is something this is already done. And probably we when you when you look and you call everywhere in France, there are at least 708090, you know possibilities to that. And but they have always the same. The ones that did stay as Le Republican, they will be push pull pushing their candidates. We're talking about 300 probably candidates around France and, and now you have a third Le Republican that did a deal with Renaissance, which is the, the, the Macrons party. So this is very tricky. You have 3 three times the logo, three times the way of going at least starting from Monday, which is the the, the start of the campaigning until Friday, where maybe there will be a decision from the court to say which is on on his right. So it's impossible to deal. So we'll we'll have to wait now for the second round to see which are the results. And then we'll see what remains of the IP really can probably something something different. Maybe they will be the ones that will be winning with the rational national, which is the main dynamic now. Maybe some will find a way to save their political life, electoral life on on on on the ground with with the high public account only, but probably something that will be remain but quite different which is which is interesting. Is that Laurent Voquet's position? You know, he he used to be one of the favourites for the presidential into 2027 and he's a closer lie from COT. But he remained in silence. He was he's still the president of the Auvergne Ronald region. And now he's going back into the legislative election in in Ocloir and probably he didn't say much which are the ones that are in power to do what they are doing either COT either Mr. Mr. the the the the the rain and historical part and all the ones that go with honest. So he is waiting as some of us of to, to, to, to find a way of analysing the results in the second round, which will give us the real Republican Party after this election. Right. And now the the newly formed left coalition, the Popular Front, has put forth a very ambitious and very left wing manifesto. They are rising in the polls. But how much credibility do they have right now? I mean, not to mention they still have to decide on a leader to see this through. Yeah, probably what they what they achieved. This is something that Macron didn't quite understand when he he, he, he, he called for the solution. This is a way of 24 hours to get at least an electoral deals, let's say going together at the election. They've this is the way they know in a two round election to save their what they have right now for either parties from the Socialist to La France and Soumis. But they they they they went be beyond because they know something is possible for them to create a dynamic this week and for the two remaining weeks around the fact that now everybody's talking and everybody's measuring and and finding that this is this will be the the the the real competition. It's not between the assamation and my coin. It's between them and the assamation. This is this is in capacity to find a way to boost not only to save their life politically, but to a way of boosting their capacity to be collectively, not individually a real force at the parliament. But now they have this is only electoral deal. They they they yesterday they they proposed they they they were they were presenting a kind of government the governmental deal for the first year of government. If they were going in power and the nobody will trust them on the fact that they forgot thinking around each each of them, which are very different from alone to Mr. Putu is something very large and too large to be honest really on on the fact that could go govern together. But the way of going into the election collectively as the front Bouleir, which is something very interesting and without, without you, without pushing in front a figure like Mr. Melanchon, Mr. Ronan or whatever is a way of dwelling against the Rasam al Shidani. Probably they will be going into a good result. Polls say they have in the finals between the the two of them in maybe 400 geographies, right. And obviously this was a a massively high stakes move for Macron because in the case of a far right victory, that could become his overarching legacy. And that's very risky for the French President. What exactly is Macron's game plan here? I would love to know. I quite didn't understand what was happening in the Sunday evening, you know, as it probably like other people, made me even angry. Not, not because of putting the Russian national in power or whatever at LFE. It's only that, you know, we, we have a special timing. This is European election time. So there will be an European agenda where France will be very weak in negotiating the top jobs, for example, of the the next European institutions timing for the five next years. And then we have the Olympic Games that are coming. And so we didn't need that kind of fighting. You you were talking about what's happening in the street today. I'm living quite the you know, you have your correspondent that was on Plaza public and we we're we're talking about 500 meters from that and and we already feel right now what's happening. And because the leftists the hard part of the lessons that will be demonstrating very hard the whole week around and this this is coming polarizing again more a bit more the French society, which didn't need that all and we didn't that need that all at the same as a country trying to push over into the European Union and elsewhere our interest. And this is something I can't understand what probably the fact is that we're talking about presidential majority today and it will be a minority in, in, in, in a few days because they will be the ones that probably will be defeated the most in that election. All right. Jean Christophe Galion, political scientist and communication strategist. Thank you so much for your analysis and for your time here on France 24.