Two Fed cuts this year still possible despite updated dot plot, fund manager says

Right after the the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, we saw that the the dot plot for for 2024 came out with with one cut, but it was very close. And Powell in his press conference also stated that the inflation number which came out during the meeting, which was a bit unfortunate timing meant that some participants didn't necessarily revise their estimates for inflation and for cuts this year, although they had the opportunity to so. Think we should take too much from the fact that the dot for 24 is now just one cut. I think the potential for two cuts is still very much there. It was very close. I think if you look at who voted for what, I think the core of the committee, Powell in particular, were on the more dovish side in my opinion. And therefore they could push for a September cut if we continue to see good progress on inflation and some softening, as you heard Yellen say there on the labour market. Did you pick up on that point around this inflation print coming through very late in the day because we had Neel Kashkari on set? A couple of weeks back and he was really pinpointing to us the various different gauges he looks at. So not just one series of data and the fact that it has been so bumpy, I mean we've seen various different directions for just about every data point. So one piece, even if it suggests that there's some softening and inflation, there is no confidence because it could just go back up another month later. Absolutely. And and Fed participants are always very clear in saying that one data point isn't going to drive a decision and they need to see a series of data points. I think we saw that in Q1 where we saw the height in numbers and then we saw three of those which then made the Fed pivot somewhat. However, with this inflation print, there is good progress. It's it's a very positive print. I have to emphasize that. I mean core core CPI at .16 super core, which is obviously core services X shelter negative for the first time in three years, Cleveland, Cleveland trimmed mean, which removes the outliers. It was the lowest in three years as well. So not just the headline number, the core number, but actually the details as well were very positive. So certainly it's only one point. But there's still a chance. That fingers crossed that Q1 was an aberration and actually we can get back into the path that we were in the second-half of last year and this disinflation path.