What To Expect From India-France Ties & Will G7 Change India's Approach Towards Foreign Policy?

Welcome back. You're watching Global Eye. We still have with us former foreign Secretary Kaval Sibal, Ambassador Rakesh Sood, former diplomat and also Brahma Chelani, strategic affairs expert. Ambassador Sood, our relationship with France now Prime Minister Modi had his first bilateral with President Macaw of France. What do you think we can expect from the India of France relationship going forward? There is a lot at stake in the defense sector, in the IT sector as well, and education. The relationship between India and France is the first strategic partnership that India established with any country. So it is a mature relationship and Prime Minister Modi and President Macron have met each other regularly. In fact, President Macron was in India for the Republic Day earlier this year. And as you said, there are a whole host of issues which are subject of conversations between the two leaders as well as the two governments, between the ministries at different levels, foreign ministry, defence ministry. There is the nuclear aspect, there's the space related cooperation, there is counterterrorism, intelligence sharing, indoor Pacific defence ties, right, you name it. That is almost every single aspect of our relationship. We have a dialogue with France right now. Of course, there are discussions going on with the Rafael Marine, for the Rafael Marine aircraft, for the Indian aircraft carrier and there are other items as well. However, for President Macron, the crucial thing will be the snap election that he has announced. The first round will take place at the end of this month. This is coming after the European Parliament elections, where the outcome was something that President Macron felt unhappy about. You had Marine Le Pen winning nearly twice as many in polling, twice the percentage that President Macron's party was polling. And I think President Macron felt that he could take a gamble to announce an election. So that what remains to be seen is whether he is able to, whether his gamble is successful in the sense that does his party come back? Does his party have a rebound, as it were, and he's able to get a majority because right now he's running a minority government? Or whether the mood has shifted decisively, in which case he may be forced into a situation in which the French call cohabitacion, where you may have a different party, a Prime Minister from a different party, holding the reins of government in that sense. So that is something that is going to be on President Macron's mind when he meets Prime Minister Modi this time, right? Let me go across to Ambassador Sybil once again. Ambassador Sybil. Now when it comes to Indias priorities going forwards, a lot of foreign powers would like to gauge the mood in India and Indias political muscle now that the elections are over. We've seen the NDA coming back but with the reduced number. Do you think this in any way changes Indias approach to foreign policy in any way? No, no, no, no, not at all, not at all. These countries are going to deal with whoever is in power and Modi has come back to power once again and the third time, which is quite an achievement. Even with the reduced majority, he will be at the helm of the affairs. The coalition it seems would be stable but deep. That aside, as it was said earlier on by Brahma, I think look at where the other leaders stand. Sunak is going to be out of power very soon. The Labour is going to come back. Macro has been weakened very severely by the European elections and has been forced to call for new elections to the parliament. Bidens future is very uncertain. There are people who think that Trump is going to going to win. Germany is in disarray. It has a coalition government shows is not particularly strong as a leader. Maloney, yes, Maloney has some strength in in Italy, but she is also in a minority, frankly. And there are voices around her which have a different approach to foreign affairs than she has, especially with Russia. So what I mean is that these leaders whom I'm talking about are running their countries and we are dealing with them, we are dealing with them. So therefore they're going to deal with the with the Prime Minister Modi in any case. But that's the first thing. The second thing is that India remains important in the larger geopolitical scheme of things for the West, whether it is Indo Pacific or the rise of China and the consequences of that or India's market, India's growth, India's contribution to technology development, innovation and everything else is human capital, you know, which is valued by the West. Then our position with regard to all climate change discussions which are very important and very vital for the future of the planet as such. So all these factors will actually mean that the other countries, other leaders are going to deal with Prime Minister Modi, even if he's come back with the reduced majority because behind them is India, 1.4 billion people, which is going to be the third largest economy, hopefully by 2027, by by 20-30. These are the things that are going to weigh with them. Act that that he's come back with a which is an internal affair. Yes, of course, domestically may face more opposition and that opposition may want to rope in, you know, the usual hobbies, anti Indian lobbies to generate pressure in India. But I don't think that's going to that's going to materially affect Indias conduct of foreign policy, right. Final question to Brahma Chalani. Brahma Chalani, right now we have Italy, Georgia Maloney, a right wing leader, she is backing every proposal in support of Ukraine, backing the G7. But you have the rise of the right in the European Union and you have an election coming up in the United States as well. Labour Party is likely to come to power in UK. How do you think the change in governments across the G7? EU is not a member of the G7, but it is a country which participates in the summit. How do you think the the nature of the elections and the nature of the political mood is going to impact the decisions that the Western world is going to take? Visa vie Ukraine and visa vie Israel? The West is at a crossroads. The West accounts for justice 12% of the global population, yet it dominates international institutions. It controls international financial architecture. This will change. In fact, there are signs of change already there. And thanks to its own overreach, the West is likely to lose its global supremacy, including in putting its hold on the international financial architecture. And I think confiscating Russia's central bank assets and seizing the interest on those assets has forced a number of countries to think about their own central bank assets. The reason why the gold price has reached a record high is because of the attempt by some central banks to hedge, to diversify. Some central banks are holding gold. But more importantly, in terms of internal developments in the West, we see a rightward shift in domestic politics in Europe. In North America, Britain is probably the sole exception where the Labour Party is expected to come back to power. But this rightward shift in domestic politics will have a very important bearing on the Wests own future, its involvement in the war in Ukraine. Most right wing parties in Europe for example don't like Gauravs growing involvement in a war in a country that is not central to the Wests long term future. So there would be significant policy shifts if this trend towards the right continues, right? We've completely run our time, but we'd like to thank Ambassador Rakesh Sood, Ambassador Kamal Sibal and Brahma Chelani for joining us on the program. With that, its a wrap on this edition of Global LIFE. But before we let you go, we leave you with these victuals of a brawl that broke out in the Italian parliament amid the G7 summit. This incident occurred during a vote on the controversial government bill concerning local autonomies. The altercation resulted in an opposition lawmaker being hospitalized. None.