In aspirational districts, BJP seats dip, Congress doubles tally; vote shares almost constant from 2019
BJP supporters celebrating the party's performance in the Lok Sabha elections, outside the new Parliament. (Express photo by Abhinav Saha)
In 2018, the BJP-led Central government launched the Aspirational Districts Programme that sought to develop the 112 most under-developed districts across the country.
In the subsequent Lok Sabha polls in 2019, the BJP won 64 of the 115 constituencies that fall under these districts, and its allies won another 17, making it a total of 81 seats for the party-led NDA.
In the recent Lok Sabha polls, however, the BJP and its allies won fewer of these seats at 56 and 13, respectively, making it a total of 69 seats for the NDA.
Among the Opposition parties, the Congress in particular capitalised on the NDA’s decline, winning 22 such seats this time, doubling its 2019 tally of 11.
The other INDIA bloc members won 15 seats, up from just four in the previous polls. Together, the INDIA alliance won 37 seats, up from 15 in 2019.
In terms of vote share though, despite the seat swing, the BJP and the Congress remained at roughly the same level across these 115 seats as in previous polls.
In 2019, the BJP had secured 35.42% of the vote share in these seats, with the figure rising marginally to 35.43% in 2024. The Congress, on the other hand, saw its vote share rise from 22.9% in 2019 to 24.03% in 2024.
But the NDA as a whole saw its vote share drop from 47.23% to 44.31% while the INDIA bloc parties saw their combined vote share rise considerably from 30.45% to 37.38%.
Alliance-wise results in aspirational districts
Alliance-wise results in aspirational districts
Out of the 115 seats, 45 changed their party preferences between 2019 and 2024. Of the 64 seats won by the BJP in 2019, the party retained a majority at 49, with the Congress and its INDIA bloc allies managing to flip just 14 seats. In Bihar’s Sheohar, though, the BJP's ally Janata Dal (United) contested and won this time. The BJP was, however, able to flip six seats from other parties.
The BJP’s vote share fell in 33 of the seats it retained and its margin of victory shrunk in 20 seats as compared to 2019.
The Congress won this time 17 new seats, including 12 won by the BJP and its allies in 2019. The party, however, lost six of the 11 seats it had won in 2019, but only one to the BJP and another to its ally Asom Gana Parishad (AGP). Two Independents and the Voice of the People Party flipped the other three seats from the Congress. In Jharkhand’s Singhbhum, though, the Congress's ally Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) contested and won the seat.
Among the notable defeats for the ruling BJP in these seats, former Union Agriculture and Tribal Affairs Minister Arjun Munda lost to the Congress's candidate in Jharkhand’s Khunti. In Uttar Pradesh’s Chandauli, former Union Heavy Industries Minister Mahendra Nath Pandey lost to the SP candidate.
Half of the 115 seats are concentrated in just five states – Bihar, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Odisha. While the NDA was the leading alliance in Bihar and Jharkhand in the Lok Sabha polls, the BJP swept all seats in Madhya Pradesh and won all but one seat in Odisha on its own. The party and its NDA alliance struggled in Uttar Pradesh, where the INDIA bloc came out ahead in terms of seats.
2024 results in aspirational districts
2024 results in aspirational districts
The BJP won every aspirational seat in Madhya Pradesh (total 11 seats), Gujarat (three), Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand (two each) and Haryana (one). It was one seat short of a sweep in Assam (five of six), Chhattisgarh (four of five) and Odisha (six of seven). Among the larger states, the BJP won 11 of Bihar’s 17 aspirational seats, nine of 14 in Jharkhand, three of five in Rajasthan, and four of nine in Uttar Pradesh.
The Congress, though, won every aspirational seat in just Karnataka (three of three), Kerala and Nagaland (one of one in each). In Kerala, Rahul Gandhi retained Wayanad, the only aspirational seat in the state. In Telangana, the Congress won three of the four aspirational seats. The INDIA bloc as a whole swept all three aspirational seats in Tamil Nadu and won four of five such seats in Maharashtra.
How the best and worst performing districts voted
Development in the aspirational districts is measured using 49 indicators under five broad themes – health, education, agriculture, financial inclusion and skill development, and infrastructure. The NITI Aayog maintains a database on the performance of these districts on these indicators to provide a composite score and tracks the monthly percentage increase or decrease for each district.
The best-performing district, in terms of the percentage increase in its composite score, since the programme’s inception is Balrampur in Uttar Pradesh. This district includes the Lok Sabha seats of Shrawasti and Gonda. While the BJP retained Gonda, the party failed to win in Shrawasti, which the SP won in 2024. The BJP candidate who lost in Shrawasti was Saket Misra, son of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s former principal secretary, Nripendra Misra.
The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) had won the seat in 2019.
Of the 13 seats that fall within the 10 best-performing districts, the BJP had won 10 in 2019, with its ally Apna Dal (Soneylal) winning one. In 2024, the BJP’s tally among these seats fell to seven, with the SP winning four and the Congress winning two, even as neither of these parties had won any of these 13 seats in 2019.
The worst-performing aspirational district is Osmanabad in Maharashtra. The Shiv Sena (UBT)’s Pavan Rajenimbalkar retained the seat, though in 2019 he had contested as the united Shiv Sena’s candidate. This time, Rajenimbalkar defeated the candidate from Ajit Pawar’s NCP by 6.98 lakh votes.
Among the 14 Lok Sabha seats that fall under the 10 worst-performing districts, the BJP had won seven seats in 2019 and its allies at the time had won another four seats. This time, the BJP actually increased its tally in these seats to eight, with ally All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) picking up the same seat it had won in 2019. The Congress, however, lost one seat between 2019 and 2024, having won two in the previous elections. Among its allies, the Shiv Sena (UBT) and the JMM won three seats combined.
Six of the 10 best-performing districts fall in Uttar Pradesh, which has been ruled by the BJP since the inception of the aspirational districts programme. The other such districts fall in Assam, Bihar and Jharkhand. While Assam has the BJP-led government, Bihar has been ruled by the NDA as well as the Mahagathbandhan governments with Jharkhand being ruled by the JMM since 2018.
Though three Jharkhand districts feature among the 10 worst-performing districts, states like Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Rajasthan and Telangana also feature on the list. All five of these states have been ruled by the Opposition parties for at least a part of the last five years. In Karnataka, for instance, the BJP was ousted by the Congress in the May 2023 Assembly polls, while in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, the Congress was replaced by the BJP in the December 2023 Assembly polls. Maharashtra, though, has had both the Opposition and the NDA-led governments.
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