Election Results: In Uttar Pradesh, BJP Stares at Stunning Losses in 2024 Trends

In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP had won 62 of the 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh. (PTI)

As counting progresses for Lok Sabha election results 2024, the BJP appears to be suffering surprising reverses in some Hindi heartland states, most crucially in Uttar Pradesh, which has been key to its electoral dominance nationally since 2014.

In the politically crucial state of Uttar Pradesh, which sends 80 MPs to the 543-member Lok Sabha, the BJP is locked in a neck-and-neck fight with Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party, which is part of the opposition INDIA bloc.

At 12 noon, the Samajwadi Party was leading in 36 seats, the BJP on 33, the Congress on seven, and the RLD on two. The SP and Congress are partners in the INDIA bloc, while the BJP and Jayant Chaudhry’s RLD struck an alliance before the polls.

The picture is in stark contrast to the Lok Sabha election results in 2014 and 2019 that played the most decisive role in bringing Narendra Modi to the Centre.

2019 and 2014 GENERAL ELECTIONS

In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP had won 62 of the 80 seats in the state, while the BSP stood second at 10 seats. The Samajwadi Party managed a single-digit tally of five seats, while the Congress stood at a dismal one seat. Back then, the SP had allied with Mayawati’s BSP.

The BJP ceded some ground in the 2019 general election, when the opposition parties scraped their combined tally to 16. Even with the conventional anti-incumbency apprehensions at work, the saffron party had laid its claim on the state winning 62 seats, bolstered further by two more won by its ally Apna Dal (Sonelal).

In 2019, the maximum seats — 23 — for the BJP came from the state’s western part, where the SP-BSP alliance could manage to win only four seats each.

The BSP won Saharanpur, Bijnor, Amroha and Nagina (SC seat) in the western UP, while the Samajwadi Party emerged victorious in Sambhal, Moradabad, Mainpuri (first held by Mulayam Singh Yadav then by Dimple Yadav in a bypoll) and Rampur that year.

The central region of the state has prominent parliamentary constituencies of Amethi and Rae Bareli — both long considered bastions of the Congress.

In 2019, former Congress president Sonia Gandhi retained her Rae Bareli seat, while her son Rahul Gandhi lost the long held Amethi constituency to Union minister Smriti Irani.

The Bundelkhand region was swept in 2019 by the BJP, which won all four Lok Sabha seats of Jhansi, Banda, Hamirpur, and Jalaun-SC.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, then-allies Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Samajwadi Party (SP) and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) achieved success in the Muslim-dominated region of western Uttar Pradesh. However, the political equations have completely changed this time.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP and allies won 73 out of 80 Lok Sabha seats in the state.

2024 STORY SO FAR

The Samajwadi Party-Bahujan Samaj Party alliance in 2019 had offered some resistance to the BJP on a handful of seats in the western and eastern parts of UP, but failed to make a big impact.

With BSP supremo Mayawati deciding to duke it out alone this time, it was up to the SP and Congress to stop the marauding juggernaut of the NDA, which had RLD on its side this time, as well as a number of caste-based regional parties in the Poorvanchal region.

In 2024, the BJP, besides its existing allies Apna Dal (Sonelal) and NISHAD Party, fought the polls along with new partners of the NDA — Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and Om Prakash Rajbhar-led Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party.

It appears that the election marked a return to regular politics, where voters were more concerned about bread and butter issues, especially in the Hindi heartland states where the opposition INDIA alliance managed to rally supporters around the issues of unemployment and price rise.

On its own, the Bharatiya Janata Party appeared to be falling below the majority mark with leads in 236 seats despite significant gains in Odisha, Telangana and Kerala, giving some solace to the party after the unexpected losses in the Hindi belt.

Its rival INDIA bloc, forged together by their common dislike for the BJP and its ideology, was leading in about 230 seats. In the last elections, the BJP had 303 seats on its own, while NDA had over 350.

The Congress party was leading in 99 seats as against 52 it had won in 2019. However, the bigger surprise was the performance of its ally Samajwadi Party, which was leading in 34 seats in Uttar Pradesh. In the last elections it had won only five seats.

The alliance of SP and Congress turned the tables on the BJP in its strongest bastion by ensuring a consolidation of anti-BJP votes, limiting the party to leads in only 35 seats as against 62 it had won last time. Together, the SP-Congress alliance was ahead in 42 seats.

Rahul Gandhi was leading from Rae Bareli with 1.24 lakh votes, while Union minister Smriti Irani of the BJP was trailing in Amethi by about 32,000 votes.

Modi was leading by over 60,000 votes in Varanasi. SP leader Akhilesh Yadav was leading by 52,000 votes in Kannauj.

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