Kari Lake Suffers New Polling Blow in Arizona Senate Race

Arizona Senate candidate Kari Lake speaks during a news conference on February 29, 2024 in Phoenix, Arizona. A new poll showed her trailing Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego in Arizona’s Senate race.

A new poll of the Arizona Senate race showed bad news for Republican candidate Kari Lake.

Lake, a former television news anchor who ran for governor in 2022, is vying to become the Republican nominee in the crucial battleground race, which could have implications as to whether Democrats or Republicans control the Senate in January 2025. But a new poll found Lake trailing Representative Ruben Gallego, viewed as the front-runner in the Democratic primary.

The Noble Predictive Insights poll found that Gallego holds a 10-point lead over Lake, as 46 percent of respondents plan to vote for him in November, compared to 36 percent for Lake. Nineteen percent of respondents said they were unsure how they are going to vote.

Gallego's lead is bolstered by a strong showing among independent voters as 42 percent plan to vote for Gallego, while 26 percent say they are going to vote for Lake.

In the Republican primary, Lake still holds a comfortable lead over Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb. Forty-six percent of respondents said they planned to vote for Lake, while only 21 percent said Lamb. The poll noted that Lake's support has dropped since a February poll that found 54 percent of Republicans planned to back her.

The poll was conducted from May 7 to 14 among 1,003 registered voters. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.09 percentage points.

Newsweek reached out to the Lake and Gallego campaigns for comment via email.

Lake rose to national prominence during her 2022 gubernatorial race, in which she ran against then-Secretary of State Democrat Katie Hobbs. Lake lost the race by less than one percentage point.

She is a staunch supporter of former President Donald Trump, who has endorsed her campaign, and she has echoed his unproven claims of widespread voter fraud in the 2020 election.

Gallego is a former U.S. Marine first elected to the House in 2014. He has easily won reelection, winning 77 percent of the vote in 2022.

Arizona is roughly evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans but was long viewed as having a Republican lean until recently.

In 2018, then-Democrat Kyrsten Sinema won a U.S. Senate race there and, two years later, President Joe Biden flipped Arizona in the presidential election, becoming the first Democrat to carry the Grand Canyon State in the Electoral College since 1996.

Sinema, who has since changed her party affiliation to independent, opted not to run for a second term.

The Cook Political Report classifies the race as Lean Democrat, meaning it is "considered competitive" but Democrats have "an advantage." Other polls have similarly found Gallego with a lead.

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