Putin's creeping advance: New territorial ambitions in Ukraine

Władimir Putin

The ongoing war is likely to encourage Putin to clearly define new territorial aims, so long as he believes Ukrainian forces are unable to halt his advance or conduct significant counter-offensives, according to the latest analysis from the Institute for the Study of War.

Putin has formulated his victory theory, assuming that Russian forces will be able to sustain a gradual, creeping advance indefinitely, preventing Ukraine from carrying out operationally significant counter-offensive actions. Thus, he will win the war of attrition.

Analysts contend that the Russian military command prioritises consistent offensive operations to achieve gradual tactical gains.

What is Putin's strategy?

Putin and the Russian military command likely view crawling offensive operations as a more effective method of achieving their goals in Ukraine than larger, mobile offensives, reads the report.

The prolonged war favours Putin's calculations, as he likely assesses that Russia will be able to maintain any occupied territory and that Russian forces will have a better chance of achieving their currently defined territorial aims the longer the war lasts, according to ISW experts.

The Kremlin has deliberately not set any limits on its aims of conquering Ukraine, and it has been repeatedly suggested that areas outside the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk regions are considered part of Russia.

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