Growing concern over Ukraine aid as Orban takes over EU presidency

We can speak to Nicholas Tenzer, a visiting professor at Siaspo University in Paris. Hello to you, Nicholas. Thank you for speaking to Paris Direct. On Monday, Hungary's leader, Viktor Orban, takes over the rotating presidency of the European Council. Some have called Orban pro Russian. Others say that's missing some nuance. How would you characterize his position on this war between Ukraine and Russia? Well, I think that's basically, you know, our band is certainly a pro Putin guy, but of course he also knows that he needs the EU, which is also important in this story. That's before the rotating presidency of Hungary. The other EU leaders have secured at least negotiation accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova. And I think that from this point of view, that's reassuring because we cannot expect certainly the Hungarian presidency to take new regarding the support to Ukraine and the delivery of weapons. And I think that even during this presidency, all the other you member states will do their best to just prevent Hungary to block any kind of new initiative. So, so with Hungary taking over that presidency, you think we're in for a prolonged period of inaction? Well, well, everything will depends of course, of the, I mean, the result or so of the election in France. I mean, that's a true concern because if we have the major power in the EU right now, France was very active in supporting Ukraine. You remember the stance of President Macron saying that he wants to send military instructors to Ukraine, that he want provide Ukraine with memory, raise 2000 new fighter jets. Well, everything could be, you know, certainly jeopardized. But if the elections of France have, I would say a good result, it means without a full victory of National Rally, Marine Le Pen's party, then maybe I think it will be very difficult for Hungary alone, plus let's say Soviet or Austria to block. I mean, the support. So well, we'll see after Monday or after mostly after the July, the 7th, I mean the second round of the election in France, what could happen. Yeah. And even then, let's not forget we have AUS presidential election in November. What happens if Donald Trump's in the White House? Yes, I mean, that's a, that's a true concern because if we have no more support for France, if we have no more support from the US, then certainly Crane will be in a very difficult position. Because I cannot imagine that with only, let's say the UK, Poland plus the Baltic States and some of the states, it will be certainly enough certainly to support Ukraines until victory. And right now also we have this concern. I was in cave at the beginning of this month. Everyone say, well, that was very good to unblock. I mean, the deadlock in the US Congress. We welcome all the support for the other member states. We welcome all the security agreements with well that we have right now. And just after that to assign a new security agreement between Ukraine and the EU. But it will be certainly not enough to reconcreate the territories still occupied by Russia. And I think we need to do much more. And if we have, I mean, Trump in the White House, plus the National Rally having a majority in the House in France, certainly it will be very difficult to move forwards and basically to, to, to not only to protect Ukraine, but to, to, to make Ukraine win this war fully. Yeah. Ukraine's President Bilimir Zelensky said he's drawing up what he calls a comprehensive plan for how he believes the war with Russia shouldn't. Of course, that would likely include a Ukraine's territorial integrity. The only thing is, we know Putin doesn't want to negotiate. So what is the significance of Zelinsky's plan? What is the point of it? Who is he really trying to address and what's his message in it? I think the first message is first of all, that of course Ukraine wants peace. And basically if we consider the, the suffering of the Ukrainian people, we have already certainly more than 100,000 people died, you know, died, you know, in Ukraine because of Russia. We want peace. We are not an obstacle to peace. Certainly Russia is because Russia has declared this war and basically Vladimir Putin's doesn't want to to end this war. It will continue whatever it takes, even if you have 1,000,000 servicemen, you know, from Russia dying, you know, in this war. Certainly Putin will continue. And we also know that, you know, in the 10 points peace plan of Zelensky. And I think that the new peace conference will certainly, you know, endorse this plan. There must be a full territorial integrity of Ukraine guaranteed by all the allies and not only, I mean, NATO, but also some southern country. That's what we expect. Let's be very clear. First of all, if we give up on some territories, it will be a full surrender. That will be certainly of breach of international law. And it would mean that the West will have lost, I mean, any kind of legitimacy to say that it is abiding by international law. And the second thing is that we perfectly know that as long as we have Ukrainian territories occupied by the Russians, it means more torture, summary execution, deportation of children, which is a crime of genocide under the conventions of December 9th, 1948. So we cannot accept to give Mr. Putin a license to kill. And that's why we have basically not to surrender. We have to continue. Yeah. In about two weeks time, the US is hosting the NATO summit. The security alliance will be marking 75 years since its creation there. Do you expect Vladimir Putin to send a message to sort of hangover that anniversary? Well, certainly I think that Putin, you know, will continue with, I mean is threats, I mean, and all the narratives that's the war of NATO again, Russia and this kind of thing. But first of all, we have not to buy into this kind of narrative. But having said that, I am rather pessimistic because we still know that the US and Germany oppose a full membership of Ukraine to NATO right now in the new summit. Last year, I know it was on July 11th and 12th, basically kind of remake of the Bucharest Summit of 2008. There was no clear signal for Ukraine accession to NATO. There was no date, no full commitment, and I think I could be very pessimistic of what I mean. The next Washington summit will resemble. I cannot see what kind of real progress, very unfortunately, with the exception of commitment in words will result from from from this summit. Professor, thank you very much for your time. Nicholas Tensor speaking to us. Thank you.