GNU spells end of the road for nationalism in South Africa as new political landscape emerges

Nationalism is a grievance-driven ideology. Afrikaner nationalism was driven by grievances against the British for destroying the Boer republics and taking ownership of South Africa’s minerals. African nationalism was also driven by grievances against the British for betraying the African elite by allowing the Afrikaner nationalists and British mining companies to abolish the non-racial Cape Constitution.  They were also aggrieved that Afrikaner nationalists had excluded them from property ownership, skills and the franchise.

Why did the African nationalists of the ANC lose power?

The ANC gained political power by mobilising all citizens who were victims of apartheid; these ranged from white liberals who were unhappy about being removed from government jobs by the National Party after 1948, to the mass of the black population who were compelled to carry passes and thus became fodder for exploitation by commercial farmers, mining and construction companies. These groups, especially the African working class, became the cutting edge of the Struggle against apartheid as well as the main voting block for the ANC after the advent of democracy in 1994.

Once in power the ANC, however, started to focus on advancing the welfare of the African middle class at the expense of the great majority of the people of South Africa.  Ultimately this led to the African working class, and to some extent the African middle class, especially in the metros, starting to abandon the ANC as voters.

This became evident in the local government elections in 2016 when the ANC lost majorities in the key metros of Gauteng and the Cape, especially Port Elizabeth, now Gqeberha. It had lost Cape Town a decade early for abandoning the coloured population when it adopted policies of Black Economic Empowerment and Affirmative Action.

The coming merger between the black and white middle classes is good for South Africa. At last South Africa’s middle classes are no longer divided along racial lines. They have created a new partnership in the government of national unity. However, we should not expect economic miracles to come out of this new black and white partnership. The middle classes of all races in South Africa are consumption driven rather than production and investment driven. They use their control of the State to tax the rest of society to fund the bloated public sector and its highly inflated salaries.  This is going to continue.

The high cost of public sector remuneration contributes to the low levels of investment in the economy. As a percentage of gross domestic product investment is only 14%, while it should be 30% and above, according to the National Development Plan.  This explains, among other things, the high level of unemployment in South Africa as well as the huge dependence of South African households on social welfare. The merger of the black and white middle classes will continue with the economy of consumption and stagnation.

The reality is that the middle class, black and white, as well as the working class of all races benefit from the minerals export-driven economic status quo in South Africa. Only the capitalists and the poor do not as the stagnant economy works against their interests. The challenge is how these two social groups should work together to create a political environment that drives investment and economic growth.

The real new politics for South Africa will be the merger between capital and the poor. These are the only social groups in South Africa that have a vested interest in driving investment and economic growth instead of private consumption. DM

Moeletsi Mbeki is Chairman of The South African Institute of International Affairs

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