Fantasy Football Stats: Quarterback Target Tendencies to Tight Ends
The tight end is the least valuable among the top four offensive skill positions, but most fantasy managers will have to start at least one on a regular basis. That makes it important to know which players are in offense that could increase their value, and which ones you might want to avoid due to the quarterback or system they’ll play in this season.
In an effort to find which tight ends can are in the best positions to succeed, here’s the quarterbacks and offenses that targeted the position the most … and the least … in 2024.
Note: Quarterbacks in this research started a minimum of 10 games last season.
Most Targets
1. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs (27.8%): When your top option in the passing game is a tight end (Travis Kelce), it’s no surprise to see Mahomes at the top of this list. He’s been no worse than eighth in his percentage of passes thrown to tight ends since he took over as the Chiefs starter, and he’s been no worse than second the last two seasons.
2. Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars (25.5%): Lawrence had finished no better than 13th among field generals in pass percentage to tight ends before last season, but the emergence of Evan Engram changed that trend. No tight end finished with more targets than in 2023. I’m not sure this will continue in 2024, however, as the Jaguars added rookie Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis to an offense that also boasts Christian Kirk.
3. Jared Goff, Lions (22.5%): Goff’s produced the highest percentage of his passes that went to tight ends as a member of the Lions last season. It’s no surprise, as rookie Sam LaPorta hauled in 86 passes on 120 targets. In an offense that has liked to feature tight ends in recent seasons, I’d expect Goff to continue to throw to his young star.
4. Josh Allen, Bills (22.5%): This was a huge jump for Allen, who hadn’t targeted tight ends more than 12.5% of the time in his previous three seasons. That has much to do with the addition of Dalton Kincaid, who saw 91 targets and hauled in 73 catches. Dawson Knox was targeted 36 times, so Allen was looking for his tight ends. With Stefon Diggs no longer on the roster, I can see Allen match last season’s percentage of passes thrown to tight ends in 2024. That’s good news for Kincaid.
5. Lamar Jackson, Ravens (21.7%): Jackson finished fifth in pass percentage to tight ends last season, which was a career low. In fact, he had never been lower than 26.2% in this department, and he finished over 40% twice. There were a few reasons for this, most notably the absence of his top target, Mark Andrews, for seven games. There was also a change in the team’s offensive system under Todd Monken, not to mention the presence of wide receivers Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr. With OBJ gone, Andrews returning, and the emergence of Isaiah Likely, however, I can see this percentage increasing in 2024.
Notes: Desmond Ridder led all quarterbacks in percentage of passes that went to tight ends, but he’s now a backup in Arizona. Mac Jones and Justin Fields were also in the top 10, but they’re backups in Jacksonville and Pittsburgh, respectively.
Fewest Targets
1. Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins (9.3%): The offense of coach Mike McDaniel hasn’t used the tight ends at all. The position averaged a league-low 2.2 fantasy points per game in 2023. Their tight ends also ranked dead last in targets, receptions, and yards, and they’re tied for the second-fewest touchdowns scored. For those reasons, Tua was dead last in targeting the position. I’d also avoid Jonnu Smith in fantasy football drafts.
2. Russell Wilson, Broncos (12.5%): The Broncos ran 12 personnel 233 times last season (14th-most), but their tight ends combined for a mere 62 targets and 39 catches. Rookie Bo Nix could look to the position more often as a security blanket, assuming he wins the top spot on the depth chart, but this certainly isn’t the same Sean Payton offense that made a fantasy football star out of Jimmy Graham back in his New Orleans days.
3. Aidan O’Connell, Raiders (13.1%): The Raiders didn’t run 12 personnel often in 2023, and their tight ends saw just 73 combined targets as a result. You’d have to think that will change this season though, as the team used its first-round pick on Brock Bowers. With Michael Mayer also in the mix, I can see O’Connell (or Gardner Minshew) moving into the top half of the NFL in this category. Also, new offensive coordinator Luke Getsy’s offense in Chicago last season ranked in the top 10 in targeting their tight ends.
4. Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers (14.3%): Mayfield’s top targets in the passing game were wide receivers, most notably Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, so there wasn’t much left for Cade Otton and the tight ends. While the Bucs ranked 10th in running 12 personnel, that was more for blocking purposes than running routes. Otton could have some deep sleeper appeal in larger leagues, but this trend doesn’t bode well for him.
5. Matthew Stafford, Rams (15%): The Rams threw to their wide receivers more than any other team last season, so it’s no surprise that Stafford didn’t throw to his tight ends much. That’s been the case for him during his time with the Rams, as he’s thrown to the position on fewer than 16% of his passes in his two full seasons with the team. With Tyler Higbee coming off a torn ACL, this offense doesn’t have a tight end worth a look in drafts.
Notes: Wilson goes from Denver to Pittsburgh, where Arthur Smith is the new offensive coordinator. Last season, Ridder threw the ball to tight ends at a higher rate than any other quarterback (34%). That’s good fantasy news for Pat Freiermuth’s chances of rebounding in the stat sheets after a disappointing 2023 campaign.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Fantasy Football Stats: Quarterback Target Tendencies to Tight Ends.