Labour on track to win most seats in Scotland, two new polls suggest

Two new opinion polls suggest Labour could be on track to win the most seats in Scotland in the General Election

Labour are on track to win most seats in Scotland in next week’s General Election, two new polls have suggested – despite one showing support for the SNP is now level with backing for Sir Keir Starmer’s party.

Polling by Savanta found 34% of Scots could vote SNP next week, with support for Labour at the same level.

However, analysis by elections expert Professor Sir John Curtice indicated this could still see Labour  – who won just one seat north of the border in the 2019 election – win 28 Scottish MPs.

Meanwhile, the SNP could see their tally of MPs fall from 48 in 2019 to 18.

Emma Levin, associate director at Savanta, said: “Our latest Scottish voting intention suggests that the gap between Labour and the SNP is closing in Scotland, although this would still mean Labour picking up 28 Scottish MPs and the SNP dropping to 18.

“Labour’s vote in Scotland simply looks more efficient, as much of it is concentrated around the central belt, where there are many potential seats for them to pick up.”

Ms Levin added: “The bigger picture is that Labour’s seat count in Scotland looks like it’s going to matter much less than it might have done six months ago.

“For the SNP, this election is about saving face after a challenging couple of years – if they achieve these results, they’ll likely think they’ve done a pretty decent job of holding on.”

Savanta polled 1,042 people across Scotland between June 21 and 26, with the research suggesting 14% are backing the Conservatives, with support for the Liberal Democrats on 7%, Reform UK on 6% and the Greens on 2%.

Its analysis suggested the Liberal Democrats could increase their number of Scottish MPs from four to five, with the Tories returning six MPs, the same total as they had in 2019.

Meanwhile, a poll by Survation for The Herald newspaper and the Ballot Box Scotland website put support for Labour at 37%, with the SNP behind on 31%.

The research, carried out between June 21 and 25, had the Tories on 14%, with Reform UK on 8%, ahead of the Liberal Democrats on 7% and the Scottish Greens, who polled 3%

Modelling by Allan Faulds from Ballot Box Scotland estimated this would give Scottish Labour, led by Anas Sarwar,  31 MPs while John Swinney’s SNP would be left with 17 MPs.

The Liberal Democrats would have five MPs from Scotland, it further suggested, with the Tories seeing their representation decrease to four Scottish MPs.

Mr Faulds said: “John Swinney will perhaps breathe a sigh of relief that his party’s decline has seemingly stalled.

“Yet there’s no denying the SNP are a much-weakened party whilst Anas Sarwar will be rightly jubilant at the near-certainty he’ll see Scottish Labour’s first victory since 2010.”