Reform support badly hit by Nigel Farage Russia claims, poll suggests

Reform have slipped three points in the last week

Reform UK appears to have alienated some voters with Nigel Farage’s claim that the West is partly to blame for the invasion of Ukraine, according to a new poll.

The BMG Research survey for i shows the right-wing party has slipped by three percentage points in a possible glimmer of hope for the Conservatives that they may be able to make some ground at the expense of Reform.

But the Tories are still on course for an “extremely bleak” result, BMG warned, with Labour 22 points ahead and the Liberal Democrats also rising over the course of the general election campaign.

Labour is backed by 42 per cent of those polled, with little change to the party’s position over the past few weeks. The Conservatives are on 20 per cent support, a slight improvement from last week.

Reform comes in third with 16 per cent, down from its all-time high of 19 per cent recorded last week – when it was tied with the Tories.

The poll was conducted between Monday and Wednesday this week, after Mr Farage said in a TV interview that the “ever eastward expansion of Nato and the European Union” had stirred Vladimir Putin into invading Ukraine, adding: “We have provoked this war.”

The Reform leader has repeatedly doubled down on his comments and accused Tory politicians such as Boris Johnson of hypocrisy because they voiced similar concerns before the full-scale invasion took place in 2022.

Mr Farage has also urged Ukraine’s leader Volodymyr Zelensky to give up territory in a peace treaty with the Kremlin. His intervention was welcomed by Russian state media.

While the polling for i cannot make a direct link between Reform’s loss of support and Mr Farage’s comments, it does indicate the leader is out of step with public opinion on the issue of Ukraine

More than two thirds of those questioned – 71 per cent – said that Russia is more responsible for the war, rising to 84 per cent of Conservative voters. Significantly, 63 per cent of Reform voters also disagree with Mr Farage on this point.

Nine per cent of all voters believed both nations were equally responsible and just five per cent blamed the West entirely – although these figures wer much higher – 13 and 12 per cent – for Reform voters.

The BMG poll shows the Lib Dems on 12 per cent, equalling their best performance so far this year, with the Greens following on 6 per cent.

Rob Struthers of BMG said: “Last week, Reform was tied with the Conservatives, but their vote share has since subsided. This is a glimmer of hope for the Conservatives as the Reform surge appears to have stalled – this could possibly be a sign that Reform voters are thinking tactically and going back to the Conservatives to try and stop Labour.

“However, the overall picture for Rishi Sunak remains extremely bleak. The Lib Dem vote share is holding strong, and the public’s view of their campaign performance has improved. Meanwhile, Labour’s lead over the Conservatives remains above 20 points. This leaves little doubt that the Conservatives are fighting to avoid a near wipeout next week.”

A string of complex MRP polls which attempt to forecast the election result in each individual constituency have shown the Tories picking up somewhere between 50 and 150 Commons seats, down from 365 at the last election in 2019.

Mr Struthers said: “At the seat level, Labour’s victory margin suggests a landslide, but the exact size is unpredictable. With this rate of shift, the margins between Conservatives holding on in many seats is very marginal and small shifts could significantly impact the results. Additionally, 15 per cent of those polled told us they are still undecided. If they shift significantly in one direction, it could impact on the final party composition in Parliament.”

The Prime Minister’s personal ratings have recovered slightly from their all-time low but still stand at a net level of -45, with just 18 per cent happy with his performance in office and 63 per cent disapproving. Sir Keir Starmer is on -1.

BMG Research interviewed a representative sample of 1,522 GB adults online between 24-26 June 2024. BMG are members of the British Polling Council and abide by its rules.