What is the rapidly developing science of 'climate attribution?'
Was the heat Dome that smothered eastern Canada this week a sign of things to come? It was even worse in Mexico and the southwestern US this month. Recent extremes deepened. A nationwide drought in Mexico spiked a desert temperatures above 50 Celsius and put the most vulnerable at risk. This Red Cross worker says they were treating up to five people a day with heat stroke. Researchers say Mexico's peak five day heat wave in June was 35 times more likely because of climate change. This is what climate change looks like. These are the conditions that are going to become more likely. More severe advancements in computer modeling are making it possible to more quickly attribute recent weather extremes to climate change. In pre industrial times, that heat wave would happen only once in more than 500 years by 2000. Once in 60 years, today with 1.2° warming, A1 in 15 year event and by 2060 with two degrees warming. And current policies such extreme heat waves will strike every four years. It's helps us see exactly what is going on with global warming. How is carbon pollution influencing the place where we live? In the southwestern US, wildfires have spread faster than they've seen in years. So you can see they're up here in this red line that's like all time high that we've seen in the last 10 years. In Canada, the intense heat wave hit even before summer arrived. The summers are warm. Phil Monahan says he doesn't need more science to be convinced what's happening. The sort of progressive pattern upward, I think is, is, is primarily climate change. But, say researchers, climate change attribution science can help policy makers target what needs to be done. What are the conditions are becoming more frequent and more severe. And so those are the ones where we really need to invest our time in figuring out how do we keep people safe. We're able to make this analysis and highlight the conditions that are becoming more likely because of climate change. That tells us the conditions that we need to focus on. Being faster to attribute extreme weather to climate change won't stop global warming, but could help in developing ways to adapt to it sooner. Eric Sorenson, Global News, Toronto.