Who has advantage after 3 phases Lok Sabha polls? Pollsters discuss with Rajdeep Sardesai

But our top story tonight, the voting for phase three of the Lok Sabha elections of 2024, has concluded. Remember, 93 states, 93 seats across 12 states went to the polls. Among those who are whose fortunes are being tested as Union Home Minister Amit Shah, Prime Minister Narendra Modi casting his vote in Gandhinagar where Mr. Shah is fighting Prime Minister, meeting local citizens there, signing even a few autographs. The Pawar family also casting their vote in Baramati where Sharat pawas daughter Supriya Sule is facing a challenge from Ajit Pawar wife Suneetra Pawar. Very low voter turn out, I can tell you there in Baramati. Then we went down South in Karnataka, where the Yeddyurappa family voted in Shivamogga, where of course his son is contesting Congress President Mallika Arjun Karge casting his vote in Kalaburgi, Jyotiraditya Sindhya was hoping to reclaim Guna got his fingers inked. In Gwalior, his traditional bastion. In Uttar Pradesh, Akhilesh Yadav and his wife Dimple Yadav cast their vote in Seifi, which falls in their family bastion of Manpuri where dimple is contesting from. So plenty of big seats that were on the radar in this phase. Just to give you what the turn out was. And remember, these are all provisional figures that will be revised in the days ahead. Phase three turn out as of now 2014 was 65.8% in these seats, 20/19 was 67.2% in these seats. 2024, and this is by 8:00 PM. Was 61.45 S effectively turn out. This time is a slightly lower compared to the elections of 2014 and 19 substantially lower. But I say slightly because these numbers will get revised in the days ahead. Either way, we havent seen a high voter turn out yet. Again, is it the heat? Is it indifference? And what does all of this say? Gone. Jeetega 2024. We are at the halfway point. 283 of the 543 seats in the country have now voted and the question arises, what are the early trends that we are now picking up in this Lok Sabha election? That’s the big question that I’m going to be raising. And I’m going to be joined by top pollsters and political scientists. In my studio is ace pollster Pradeep Gupta. Axis. My India is the man who’s hoping to tell us that he gets it right this time. Yashwant Deshmukh of C Voter is joining me. He’s been doing a lot of tracker polls as well. Rahul Varma of the Center for Policy Research is joining me. What I did with all three of them before they came to the studio, I asked them to pick their trends or give me their key takeaways. So I’m going to play them on the screen as they give me their trends. Pradeep, why don’t you start first, What are the trends that you picked up as we’ve entered the halfway point? Were not going into numbers just yet, Although if you’re if I push come to shove, you’re welcome to stick your neck out. But what are the big trends you picked up so far, Pradeep, in an election that’s reached the halfway stage? See Rajdeep, when it comes to India that for that matter, Lok Sabha election, India is too big a country, Everybody knows that. Now coming to these three phases. So there are 5 cast leadership voters. I am coming to that The cast, leadership and voter turn out how it is plays out in the outcome of any electoral results. See Uttar Pradesh, what is most important? What is The X Factor? Of course caste plays the vital role but how BSP will perform will depend a lot. The outcome will depend on that lot. When you go to West Bengal, in Uttar Pradesh also and Bengal and Bihar all 7 have some seats, right. So in where you go to Bihar, it is all depend how the Muslim God gets split or consolidate. I mean that is where it lies. There also kind of a caste or whatever you call it religion. Then you go to Maharashtra, biggest state, again 48 seats in Maharashtra. There are always the regional this thing in Vidarba, Kunbi and Dalits decides. Decisive factor. When you go to Marathwala or the western Maharashtra or the southern Maharashtra Marathas are very important. So this is what it plays out. How even today the Baramati. It will all depend how Marathas are voting, whether they are voting in favor of UBT, UDAV Thakre and S Sarath. Pawars NCP and Congress Gathbandhan are other way the Mahayuti. So that is also important when you go to a state like Bihar, again biggest state with 40 seats there. It is very important this time, particularly how Janta Dal is performing. A lot will depend on how Janta Dal is performing, meaning whether Kurumi Curry, all these lower caste Maha Dalit voters are still intact with Janta Dal, Nitish Kumar preferring Nitish Kumar of course. So all these regional big states has a lot to do and all. So you put caste at #1, #2, you put leadership that are you saying about leadership? Are you saying that are is your is your tracker suggesting that individual leaders matter in states or is this a national election? See, though it is a national election, but we all know that in Bengal you cannot rule out Mamta Banerjee how sees performing. That is very important when you go to Uttar Pradesh, such a big state. We all know that it all depend on the Samajwadi Party and that to Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati. If you go to Maharashtra again, these are the Sarat Pawar. I mean, without Sarat Pawar, Can you imagine the situation in Maharashtra particularly election, the kind of NCP or even for that matter U BT this time alliance. So you’re seeing state leaderships playing a role in this election? Of course, yes. The third fact, because because there is hardly any leadership or a magnet in Congress fold on a national level. This is the reason why these regional Chatras, particularly in the fold of II alliance, they have to play a very vital role. So are you saying that Rahul Gandhi is not as important because there was a sense that Narendra Modi was the face across 543 constituencies for the BJP with the opposition? Are you saying its much more dependent on state level leaders? Am I right? Absolutely, you are right because you have to have a magnet, the voter puller. As you rightly mentioned that Narendra Modi is one side, who is there the other side. So they have to depend on the regional shatraps. Third is voter turn out. Can we decipher the fact is voter turn out has been lower than 2019. What does that suggest to you? See, there are two things. One is that the approximately last time there are total electors was 89 crores. This time they have reason to 97 crores. So there is a big the moment your total base increases, the voter turn out of the percentage is likely to differ. Sure not a single percent doubt on that But in last 20 years nobody can say with conviction voter turn out low voter turn out is good or bad for the incumbent government. There is no study which suggests so and in this election particularly there is a common phase in the in the hinterland on the ground what they say woah bol thank you BJP ka voter Jo nahiyara isli Ki BJP to GT raye or opposition ka isli niyara Hum to Hari ray to ham apna vote ka Jake karab. So the both the sides will be nervous. Both the sides in a way will be nervous with voter turn out will come to you in a moment again Pradeep for specific state wise trends. But I want to come to you Yashwan you’ve given your takeaways why don’t you explain them to us. You’re starting by said good contest results in better turn out than one sided contest. Explain well you know Radhi that whenever there is a good contest and there is a probability or the supporters of different political formation speed that they have a case at hand, there is a possibility of a winning fight. You know it always enthuses the the support groups of both the sides and that increases turn out at least develops a healthy turn out in. But whenever this any particular domain that you know the results start feel like getting like you know it’s not really working out for the people who are losing again and again or it’s not really going to be really bad for the people who are winning again and again. So there comes a kind of a complacency factor for the people who are leading and there comes a factor which you can say a disheartening factor for the people who are losing. So because of that lopsidedness of the of the contest many at times the the turn out dips. Are you suggesting, are you giving us a first big hint. Are you giving us a first big hint that you believe that the contest is lopsided and therefore that explains the low voter turn out not so much the heat its its its a it is not just about the BJP and the Congress or in that way Rajdeep because what is the how do you explain the the the drop of turn out in Kerala for that matter so heat wave and all those things. Radhi, I genuinely believe they are just an excuse for both these sentiments for not going out to vote. OK you you you’ve said that drop in turn out therefore is beyond north-south or BJP Congress. That’s important. Remember even states like Kerala traditionally high voter turn out states did not register a high voter turn out. So its not a bit as if the voter turn out is low in some parts and high in the other. Its across the country at the moment. Moment Your Third Point is very interesting because it concerns your and my home state or one of your home States and one of my home state Maharashtra. You’re saying voter apathy more evident in Maharashtra than other states. Can you explain what that means? Especially given that this is one of the state that is expected to have a fierce contest. Exactly Rajdeepen and in the MOT. And also we we consistently marked out in the last two years that basically is the West Bengal and Maharashtra who which these two states which are going to see the mother of all battles even. But in the turn out sentiment, it is like contrasting Razdi. On one hand, you see a really healthy turn out in West Bengal because each and every seat is looking a really fierce battle. On the other hand, Maharashtra, which should have been as high as W Bengal, you know, in terms of spirit of democratic participation, you see a drop simply because each and every supporter of each and every party feels betrayed, feels, you know, somewhere the mandate was dishonored. You know, not a single party actually went ahead. What is to be done with the mandate that was given to them? All four major parties actually went and did something which was morally, ethically wrong. So that somehow it seems like, you know in a significantly larger way to the core support base of all the four parties taking our or going in a kind of a direction where they feel we don’t even know if we vote that person or that party today after the elections are over. They are not going to join the people we are voting against, right? Let me then let me turn to Rahul Varma. Rahul Varma, why don’t you pick your trends and explain that to us. You seem to say that its not about so much turn out but its turn out among men and women as a starting point. Are you saying women more likely as we’ve seen in previous Lok Sabha elections to go with Prime Minister Modi and the BJP nationally. So the more women who come out to it and vote better for the BJP at the moment. Thank you Rajdeep. So on turn out you know I I think all everyone like not everyone but at least three of us agree that overall turn out does not tell us about incumbency. What seems to be happening at least in my analysis for last two election cycle. It’s not the aggregate turn out but turn out among groups which is making a difference in election outcomes. What seems to be happening that the groups that are more likely to vote for BJP are turning out as a much higher rate and groups that are less likely to vote for BJP are either not turning out as far as average or below the average turn out. So what has happened in last decade of Indian politics turn out among men and women the gap has declined. In fact, in 2019 women turn out surpassed by a marginal percentage point in 2024 when the overall turn out seems to be have have declined the turn out among men and women the gap remains very very low. And given that the BJP in last few elections after 2019, especially in UP in Uttaranchal in Assam in many places where it won had a great advantage among Women Voters. So if women continue to turn out in large numbers and continue to repose faith in BJP and Prime Minister Modi because of largely the welfare schemes, perhaps that may be one of the reasons. But also the mobilizational strategy that BJP has adopted which we generally don’t discuss. It would be sort of like important factor to look in the run up to 2024. So not the total turn out but turn out groups is my first sort of like your second take away. Is opposition presence on social media quite high, Has that changed? Has that created counter narratives on the ground? Unlike in 2019, people are talking about issues like Rosgar in a manner that they were not talking in 2019. Absolutely. So penetration of social media between 2019 and 2024 has sort of like helped the opposition to be able to at least put its messages out. Where opposition still lacks and especially the Congress party, they don’t have the ground machinery to be able to translate it into votes as BJP has. But the online presence, the gap which the OR the advantage that BJP had in 2019 has seemed to basically gone down. And This is why after sort of like 3 poll surveys came out and everyone thought that this election is a done deal, BJP is far ahead. What we have seen is election becoming uncertain and it has become uncertain because one couple of sort of like things that BJP did up Ki bar char so far or corruption and other things opposition managed to pick on. Some of those things created its own and crafted its own narrative And that has given sort of like a momentum to its campaign. Whether it will translate in votes for the opposition on ground, that’s a different matter. But at least the battle on social media seem to be equally pitched. BJP candidate selection you have put as your other take away. I mean this is a party that has changed more than 110 of their 303 sitting MPs. What are you trying to say here? See, I think it may not be the most important factor since BJP is a Carter based party and ideological party and all of those things and is driven by Prime Minister MODIS popularity. But two things which BJP has done and it has been part of BJPS politics for now some time. One, almost 100 of sitting MPs have been dropped. Second, almost 100 new candidates in BJP have come from other parties. These two things are going to create some sort of like problems for the organizational machinery on the ground. Especially the committed BJP cadar is has to now mobilize for candidates against whom they were fighting for so many years. And this has also created a problem where opposition has succeeded that many of these candidates also deal corruption charges. And so now now BJP members or or BJP party workers have to explain what has gone down on the ground as BJP becoming washing machine, right? How do you explain to voters that these are also for politicians who have alleged criminal record while you are targeting opposition parties and opposition candidates on corruption? What are you going to say about these things? And just to like conclude, I don’t know whether this would matter a lot but the Raven planted ravenous case in in Karnataka or Brad Bhushan Saran Singh son getting ticket in in in Kasarganj, Uttar Pradesh. They might not impact a lot but in certain segments of basically what I will call as fence sitting BJP voter who might have voted for the party in 2019 because of multiple things but generally does not be like by BJPS ideology or ideological committed voters. They may get a little bit sort of like apathetic that BJP which claims to be a party with difference ultimately game of power politics is pursuing very similar strategies. Interesting which is where I will now come to the final part of this which is is it a done deal. Look Pradeep let’s be honest a month ago when this election started you look across all the media commentary on it. This is a done deal. I got to Modi, he. Are we saying at the halfway stage, any three of you and all of you are free to jump in that this is no longer the case? I’m not putting a number. I’m not asking you to put a number. All I’m saying is, is there an inevitability to the BJP? Whatever else happened, all these factors that you put, I got to Modi. Or are we for the first time sensing the possibility of this becoming a slightly closer fight from AAP Ki bar char so par. I’ve heard 300. Now I’m hearing mission 272. See Rajdeep at Access My India. We never do any kind of opinion poll or pre poll release for sure. Yes. And that is the precisely reason why even before the poll is start we never ever said any kind of these word done deal or this number or that number. You know it is all media. We have been listening and we have been hearing. So you know what the headline now will be? Pradeep Gupta says 2024 is not a done deal. No, no, no. You see because any statement that Pradeep makes his speak, that is the problem. That is your problem. But you’re saying its not a done deal. No, no, I am saying I am saying any election for that matter until the last vote cast access. My India never speaks out about the outcome of the election are the likely outcome of. But would you say it is more com, Let me just be very more competitive than you thought it was a month or two. The reason more localized. I got your question completely. See Rajdeep I may pehlebi sabko ye kehta tha Sabko ye kehta bhai, Jab Tak OEB sport So yeah battleground host with do contender jab Tak aapke samne na ho to Joe dikhra aapko to wahi dikhana or unko make hamesha karlo contender kaun hai kya hai dekh lo jach lo parak lo or uske baadi to koche uske. Would you say its more competitive now? I would always say that all election jab Taki, last vote name. No, no. You know let me press you one more time that in 2019 the feeling was a it was a wave election post Pulwama Balakot 2014. It was seen as an anti Congress vote. In fact, someone made a good point to me. 2014 May Modi Kesar Ek tarasse pehli pehla pyar Hua 2019. It got cemented 2024 what is the overall mood? Rajdeep me aapko Vapas keto AAP Ferse Ekbar Dekhyega Jitnebi 2019 K pre poll The yeah exit poll The exit poll. Me hamara poll chode ke kisi nebi AAP mujhe bataye khod BJP not NDA Co teen. So siddhi kya you believe it could be a clear mandate. I I always believe 90% of the time these days in last 10 to 20 years clear mandate yatra jobi aaya vaishakya sawal ka sawal. That’s an important point and whatever happened likely to be a clear mandate that’s the furthest I could push. Pradeep what Yashwan your view was it is it a done deal I got to Modi he or as we’ve reached the halfway point this election because its shown so much of diversity. States like Maharashtra low voter turn out has made all the parties they’re anxious. What’s happened in Karnataka may have turned a few things around. Is it becoming tighter in your view? No numbers but tighter because I am Privy to the deep poll data. So it will be unethical to comment on anything of that sort. I can only commit what the MOTM series that we do for India Today and it’s an interesting battle of sorting. Abstract because in the last 10 years one thing in our Motn polls for India Today that I have consistently pointed out rugby, that the assets of the opposition are all their opposition regional leaders. This is why in the you know, top ranking Chief ministers it is always full of the opposition chief minister and the bottom ranking chief ministers. It is always full of the ND or the BJP chief ministers. This is a consistent story in the last 10 odd years till since 2014. So one thing is very clear and consistent in all those studies with India Today, that the liability factor and asset factor for for the opposition and the BJP are inversely proportional. That means BJP’s central leadership is their asset, their regional leadership is their liability, their chief ministers are their liability for the opposition of the Congress. It is just the other way around. Their regional leaders, the opposition regional leaders or opposition chief ministers are their asset while the Congress central leadership is their liability. So its a question of that battle. The opposition regional leaders are really fighting it out. No doubt about that. We will know one as as the time comes that better people, whether people are looking at this election as a as a as a collage of 30 assembly elections or as a one central Lok Sabha elections. OK, both my pollsters are playing very safe. Rahul Verma, you and I don’t need to play safe. We have no exit poll numbers with us. So I’m going to ask you, has this election as its gone on become tighter in your sense? What’s your gut? Has this election become tighter? Pradeep is going as far as saying he expects a clear mandate. Either way, has it got tighter or is it this, you know, is it our, you know, the hope that some people have that you’re totally excitement that’s why we are saying its got tighter. No. You know the first point. All of us, you know, study elections and in some ways try to understand election. The greatest fun about studying Indian elections is once the match begins, you know, it’s difficult to say what’s happening and who’s going to win. And this uncertainty is very, very important for electoral competition and democracy. Ex ante. It should look like that anything is possible. But more than that, Rajdeep, most of us also follow cricket. You know when 2 teams are playing, there is a probability of who has a higher chance of winning. If you are having a match between India and Australia, you know this election, this match could go anyway. But if you know India is playing against say Zimbabwe or Kenya, you know even if the match becomes uncertain, which team has a higher probability of winning election? I believe in structural nature of political competition. Even if things become uncertain, the team with higher advantages is much more likely to come out as a winner. So you’re saying the BJP is India? The opposition even at the moment, despite showing some signs of revival, is still Zimbabwe. Am I correct? In some ways, yes. I think in the war of narratives it may seem the elections have become uncertain. But to say that BJ see BJP in any case, BJP Nara of 370 or 400 was more of a different kind of a psychological game and other things. If you add BJP’s any every seat that BJP has won, in 2009, 2014 and 2019, that number was 343. So the highest BJP could have achieved was actually well below 350. What would be really surprising in this election, which is that if BJP falls below 24250 ranked, anything between this number is possible. But there is a high probability that BJP is much more likely to return around the number it had in 2019. OK, so you’ve gone as far as possible in suggesting that the BJP could return around the same number that had gone in 2019. You stuck your neck out even as Pradeep, you’re playing very safe today. In fact you mentioned the competitive thing and 2090 victory for BJP or for that matter NDA. It is like 352 seats for NDA. So our friend Rahul is suggesting that is going in that direction. I’m not suggesting that. I have no idea. Whatever is going. All I can say at this point of time, picture abhi bakhi dost. Picture abhi bakhi hai dost. OK, let me one more point I want to add here. Yeah, very quickly. Basically the non like BJP allies are not going to do as well as BJP allied had done in 29. OK, so, OK, so, so BJP allies are going to shrink this time. That’s includes parties like the JDU possibly in Bihar or the Shiv Sena Shinde group in Maharashtra. I presume you’re referring to them. Let me give you my takeaways. I’m not. Yeah, yes, yes, yes. What you want to make a quick point, Yeah, this was, this is a very important point that this was very, very much pointed out in the January 26th issue of India Today, you know in the MOTN that basically the liabilities on each side of that as well is the alliance partner, how they are being taken away. So Kamzor Kadi Kon Kajabi Moka Vaida, the weakest link as far as the NDA is concerned would be their alliance partners. But the weakest link on the opposition side, as far as they’re concerned, it probably would be the Congress. In fact, you’ve taken one of my key take away. Let me let me give you my takeaways #1. I believe the contest has got tighter as its gone in terms of vote share but not in seats as of now. Vote share is where the opposition in certain states in particular is certainly catching up with the BJP which remember in 224 of the 303 seats they won got 50% and more vote share #2. So far I see Maharashtra and Karnataka and to some extent Uttar Pradesh as the key states. Today, Maharashtra and Karnataka that voted became key states. Maharashtra because of the low vote voter turn out, uncertain alliances is where the BJP has more to look, has more to be worried about. Karnataka is another state of worry but the BJP will hope to for my third take away to do better in direct contest with the Congress than regional parties. And this comes to the point Yashwanth made if the BJPS allies are there, Kamzor Kadhi, I still believe the way I see the Congress machine operating, it is not as strong as the BJP in direct contest in states like Madhya Pradesh, in states like Chhattisgarh and the BJP had swept these states in 2019. So that’s another take away that I’m getting. The Congress machine is not as strong as either the BJP or the regional parties. Its the regional parties who are at the moment across the country We believe really giving the BJPA tough file and my 4th take away is the woman voter. When you breakdown these numbers of voter turn out look at the woman vote. It is my belief that women Mahila decides Indian elections more than ever before whoever. If the woman voter is higher and we’ve seen that in recent elections advantage BJP if its level of I would say in certain states certainly so Congress has chance, for example Karnataka and Maharashtra. But outside of that, Women Voters have become Mr. Modis biggest vote bank. So look out for that and that’s something that I will be looking at very closely, women versus male voters in the next few rounds. Either way, it seems to have become, as I said, a much closer fight than many of us had thought of and imagine just a month ago, at least in terms of narratives and perceptions, not necessarily in terms of seats just yet. I hope I made some sense for all of you.