United Rugby Championship: Unpacking the WILD 11 team playoff race as just five rounds remain

The United Rugby Championship returns this weekend, and the playoff race heats up again with 11 teams in the mix for the coveted top eight as only five rounds of action remain.

The top eight all advance to the quarter-finals and subsequently earn qualification to the Champions Cup next season that is of course, is the Sharks or Benetton do not go on to win the Challenge Cup this season in which case the eighth-placed team would lose out on Europe’s top tier tournament – unless the eighth-ranked side win the URC.

The top four is a luxury as teams that finish in that bracket are guaranteed to host at least the quarter-finals, with the top two in prime position to host a semi-final and possibly a final.

1) Leinster (54 pts)

Leinster cemented their spot at the summit of the standings with a stunning win over the Bulls in the last round of action. Ahead of the side now is a tour to South Africa following straight after a successful fortnight in the Champions Cup. Leo Cullens’ charges will be looking to get points on the road against the Lions before an exciting fixture against the Stormers in Cape Town. They host Ospreys after that before two inter-pro derbies, and with their five-point lead, one would expect them to kick on to finish the regular season at the summit.

R14: Lions v Leinster

R15: Stormers v Leinster

R16: Leinster v Ospreys

R17: Ulster v Leinster

R18: Leinster v Connacht

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2) Glasgow Warriors (49 pts)

The Scots jumped up one position after last round’s 45-3 drumming of Scarlets showing their quality. Glasgow are almost certain to be hosting a quarter-final but have tricky games against the resurgent Sharks before touring South Africa to face the Bulls and Lions. However, two games against Zebre in the last five provide a good opportunity for points. The key for Glasgow is to get through the Southern tour with adequate points.

R14: Glasgow Warriors v Sharks

R15: Zebre v Glasgow Warriors

R16: Bulls v Glasgow Warriors

R17: Lions v Glasgow Warriors

R18: Zebre v Glasgow Warriors

3) Bulls (45 pts)

The Bulls have been brilliant this season but they fell well short of the leaders Leinster in Dublin last time out. Jake White’s side is well-placed to finish in the top four but will be eyeing that second spot, which is well within reach. The Pretoria men have a host of important fixtures in the run into the playoffs, with four of their five games against playoff candidates and the fifth game against a renewed Sharks side. Importantly, the Bulls will not leave South Africa, so they will be targeting a clean sweep all the way in, with matches against Munster this weekend and Glasgow in round 16, particularly important.

R14: Bulls v Munster

R15: Bulls v Ospreys

R16: Bulls v Glasgow Warriors

R17: Bulls v Benetton

R18: Sharks v Bulls

4) Munster (43 pts)

The Irish province overcame a scare from Cardiff in the last round but maintained their top-four place. The champions will be tested on the run-in, starting with a crunch clash with the Bulls at Loftus Versfeld before a potential banana peel against the Lions the week after. Then there is Edinburgh to navigate between two inter-pro derbies. Munster are likely to feature in the quarter-finals, but the fight for the top four is tight, and any slip-up will be capitalised on. Graham Rowntree’s men have to come away from South Africa with a solid points haul.

R14: Bulls v Munster

R15: Lions v Munster

R16: Munster v Connacht

R17: Edinburgh v Munster

R18: Munster v Ulster

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United Rugby Championship table after round 13.

United Rugby Championship table after round 13.

5) Stormers (39 pts)

The URC I champions overcame a full-on slugfest against Ulster last time out, gaining valuable points and keeping the pressure on Munster. Three of their last five games are at home with Leinster being the most difficult of those. John Dobson will want victories in all three but there will be extra care put on the two games in the north where the Stormers have struggled this campaign. Those games will be key, as their home record should power the home fixtures for the most part. The top four is on, but they will have to show some of that form that saw them win the title two seasons ago.

R14: Stormers v Ospreys

R15: Stormers v Leinster

R16: Dragons v Stormers

R17: Connacht v Stormers

R18: Stormers v Lions

6) Benetton (37 pts)

The Italians have shown their growth as a team this season and their win over Connacht at home in the last round was massive for their playoff prospects. They now face a mix of fixtures with only two at home as a trip to Ulster then South Africa looms. Three of the clashes are against playoff rivals, and they will need to take points in at least two of those games. How they travel is central to their knockout hopes. Big period for a growing team. Benetton have a challenging run into the latter stages of the tournament, but if they fail to finish in the top eight, a place in the Investec Champions Cup is on the cards, provided they win the Challenge Cup.

R14: Benetton v Dragons

R15: Ulster v Benetton

R16: Sharks v Benetton

R17: Bulls v Benetton

R18: Benetton v Edinburgh

7) Ospreys (35 pts)

It was a proper gutsy effort to crucially beat the Lions in the last round and massive points taken off their playoff rivals. The Welsh side’s next three games will make or break their season as they travel to the Stormers, Bulls and then Leinster. If Ospreys can make it out of those three rounds with decent points, they have a chance, but the odds are stacked against them.

R14: Stormers v Ospreys

R15: Bulls v Ospreys

R16: Leinster v Ospreys

R17: Ospreys v Dragons

R18: Cardiff v Ospreys

8) Ulster (35 pts)

The last side currently sitting in the top eight and coming off a tough South African tour in what has been a tumultuous season. Still, there is a lot of quality in the squad, and their run-in is fairly favourable, with Ulster the favourites to win in at least three of the games. Challenging back-to-back interpro derbies round out the regular season, and Ulster will have to make the most of the games to make the most of their position. Every single point at this stage is critical for the Irish side.

R14: Ulster v Cardiff

R15: Ulster v Benetton

R16: Scarlets v Ulster

R17: Ulster v Leinster

R18: Munster v Ulster

9) Edinburgh (34 pts)

Another side coming off a tough South African tour, but Edinburgh are still in a strong position to make the playoffs being only one point off. Ultimately they can’t afford any unnecessary slip-ups and have to take points off knockout rivals Benetton and/or Munster in the final two rounds. Edinburgh will need to show composure on the run-in because one slip can be massively costly in such a tight table.

R14: Edinburgh v Scarlets

R15: Cardiff v Edinburgh

R16: Edinburgh v Zebre

R17: Edinburgh v Munster

R18: Benetton v Edinburgh

10) Connacht (34 pts)

The Galway men would have been gutted to lose to Benetton in the last round – a result that catapulted them out of the top eight. The pressure is on now but the Irish side are only one point adrift. Maximum points against Zebre and Dragons is imperative considering the two interpro derbies with Munster and Leinster that sandwich a home clash with the Stormers. That final bit of the run-in is absolutely gruelling and will make life difficult.

R14: Connacht v Zebre

R15: Dragons v Connacht

R16: Munster v Connacht

R17: Connacht v Stormers

R18: Leinster v Connacht

11) Lions (34 pts)

Like Connacht, the Lions will be upset to have lost to playoff rivals Ospreys in the last round, placing huge pressure on the finish. The Joburgers have arguably the toughest run-in with four of their last five games against teams in the top five of the table. Ultimately, it is already the knockouts for the Lions, as more than one loss might be too costly for the side. Their biggest advantage is four home games on the bounce, and if they can leverage the heat and altitude, there is always an outside chance to qualify. Simply put it would be sensational if the Lions qualified.

R14: Lions v Leinster

R15: Lions v Munster

R16: Lions v Cardiff

R17: Lions v Glasgow Warriors

R18: Stormers v Lions

Quarter-finals (*as things stand)

QF1: Leinster v Ulster

QF2: Glasgow Warriors v Ospreys

QF3: Bulls v Benetton

QF4: Munster v Stormers