UK suffered 30,000 FEWER excess deaths during Covid pandemic than statisticians originally claimed

• ONS analysis suggests 20,000 fewer deaths occurred in 2023 than estimated
• The new method adjusts rates for trends in population size and age structure 

Britain suffered just a third of the total excess deaths previously estimated in 2023, it was revealed today.

Fresh analysis of official statistics show 20,000 fewer deaths than expected occurred in the UK last year.

Tolls for 2020 and 2021 — at the height of the Covid crisis — were also revised downwards.

Despite the recalculation, the overall excess death figure remained close to 76,000 during the first year of the pandemic.

This was 8,000 below previous estimates but still way above levels seen in the decade prior, showing Covid did still cripple the nation but not to the extent first thought.

Fresh analysis of official statistics show 20,000 fewer deaths than expected occurred in the UK last year. Tolls for 2020 and 2021 — at the height of the Covid crisis — were also revised downwards. Despite the recalculation, the overall excess death figure remained close to 76,000 during the first year of the pandemic

This was 8,000 below previous estimates but still way above levels seen in the decade prior, showing Covid did still cripple the nation but not to the extent first thought. Excess deaths are considered the most accurate way of measuring Covid’s true impact because they cover deaths missed by testing and collateral fatalities. It is also considered the most consistent way to measure pandemic death tolls recording varies massively between countries

Excess deaths are considered the most accurate way of measuring Covid’s true impact because they cover deaths missed by testing and collateral fatalities.

It is also considered the most consistent way to measure pandemic death tolls recording varies massively between countries.

Traditionally the figures were calculated by comparing the number of deaths in a year with the average number over the previous five years.

But now the Office for National Statistics (ONS) adjusts the rates to capture trends relating to age and population changes.

Under the new calculations, there were an estimated 10,994 excess deaths in the UK in 2023 — around a third of the original 31,442.

How Britain suffered almost 30,000 fewer excess deaths during the pandemic than previously thought

2020

Current Method: 84,064

New Method: 76,412

2021

Current Method: 61,907

New Method: 55,079

2022

Current Method: 38,960

New Method: 43,456

2023

Current Method: 31,442

New Method: 10,994

Estimates for the first two years of the pandemic, however, show less of a difference.

Some 76,412 excess deaths were logged in 2020 under the new method, compared with 84,064 using traditional calculations.

And 55,079 excess deaths are now thought to have occurred in 2021, compared with 61,907.

But the new estimate for 2022 (43,456) is slightly higher than previously thought (38,960).

At the time, experts blamed surging rates of cardiovascular disease as one of the leading causes of excess deaths.

NHS bosses warned the knock-on effects on the health service were contributing to ambulance and A&E delays.

Anti-vaxxers, meanwhile, have wrongly claimed excess deaths are down to Covid vaccines — despite scientists proving their fears are bogus.

Julie Stanborough, ONS deputy director for health data and analysis, said the traditional approach did not take into account ‘more people means more deaths’.

This approach also failed to reflect trends in population mortality rates, ‘which were generally falling until 2011 before levelling off until the onset of the pandemic’.

However, due to differences in how excess death data is logged, comparing the updated ONS figures with other countries is difficult.

In the first two years of the pandemic, the UK logged an extra 126.8 deaths than expected per 100,000 people.

This ranked the nation in 13th place out of 33 countries included in the most recent ONS analysis, done in 2022.

For comparison, the pandemic caused the smallest spike in deaths in Iceland, where there was just an extra one death per 100,000 people.

At the other end of the scale, Bulgaria logged an additional 647.3 per 100,000 people than expected.

According to the fresh ONS analysis, the highest number of excess deaths estimated over the nine years before the pandemic was 30,858 in 2015.

A 2022 analysis of excess deaths across Europe by the Office for National Statistics, suggests Scandinavia fared better than the UK. In the first two years of the pandemic, the UK recorded an extra 126.8 deaths placing it in 13th position

This is below the new estimates for each of the three years from 2020-22, but some way above the 10,994 excess deaths estimated for 2023, when the worst of Covid had blown over.

Both the traditional and new methods of estimating excess deaths show weekly peaks that coincide with the first two waves of the Covid pandemic, which hit the UK in the spring of 2020 and the winter of 2020/21.

Along with adjustments for population size, ageing and mortality rates, a further change to the way excess deaths are calculated has had a particular impact on the sharp difference between the new and previous estimates for 2023.

In the traditional method, 2020 — the first year of the Covid pandemic — was excluded from subsequent comparisons, to avoid distortion due to the extremely high number of registered deaths.

This meant that the five-year average used for estimating excess deaths in 2022 was 2016-19 plus 2021, while in 2023 it was 2017-19 plus 2021-22.

The new approach is more precise in the way it treats Covid, removing from its comparisons the individual months that coincided with the peaks of the first wave (March and April 2020) and second wave (November 2020 to February 2021), rather than omitting the whole of 2020.

This change has made a ‘notable contribution’ to the new estimates for both 2022 and 2023, the ONS said.

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