UFC 301 odds, predictions, start time, Rio de Janeiro fight card: Pantoja vs. Erceg picks from top MMA expert

04/05/2024

A star-studded cast of Brazilian fighters serves as the backdrop of UFC 301 on Saturday, highlighted by flyweight champion Alexander Pantoja defending his title against surging contender Steve Erceg. Their five-round battle is set to anchor the main UFC 301 fight card (10 p.m. ET) from Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Pantoja is one of two male Brazilian current champions on the UFC roster. The other, Alex Pereira, defended his light heavyweight title against Jamahal Hill in the main event of UFC 300. Pantoja will be headlining for the first time in his career while also fighting in front of a Brazilian crowd for the first time.

Pantoja is a -190 favorite (risk $190 to win $100), while Erceg is priced at +160 in the latest UFC 301 odds. In the co-main event, Jonathan Martinez (-160) takes on former champion Jose Aldo (+125) in a bantamweight showdown. Before locking in any UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg picks, make sure you see the MMA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine expert Daniel Vithlani.

From breaking down film and following fighters and their camps closely, to tracking sharp action and betting market signals, Vithlani covers the breadth of the MMA betting landscape top to bottom. He also trains amateur boxers and speaks regularly with MMA fighters to understand the sport’s nuances.

Vithlani made his SportsLine debut in January 2023 and swept the main card for UFC 283 with a 5-0 record and has been a consistent winner ever since. Over the past 10 UFC pay-per-view events, Vithlani has gone 7-3 on main-event picks and his main-card selections in that span have netted his followers a profit of more than $1,200.

His highlights include calling an upset for Sean O’Malley (+210) against Aljamain Sterling (-250) at UFC 292 as part of a 4-1 main card and his UFC 299 winners included underdog selections on Dustin Poirier (+190) against Benoit Saint Denis (-230) and Michael Page (+110) against Kevin Holland (-130). Anyone who has followed him has seen massive returns.

Now, with UFC 301 on deck, Vithlani has studied the card from top to bottom and released his top picks. You can only see his picks and analysis at SportsLine.

UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg preview

Pantoja (27-5) is arguably the most decorated fighter on the UFC roster to have never headlined an event for the promotion until now. For comparison’s sake, light heavyweight journeyman Anthony Smith, a one-time title challenger who is also on the UFC 301 main card despite going 1-3 in his past four outings, has appeared in eight UFC main events.

Pantoja is 11-3 in 14 UFC appearances since his January 2017 debut. Moreover, he is 5-0 combined against top-ranked contender Brandon Royval and No. 2-ranked Brandon Moreno, who is perhaps the most popular flyweight in the history of the division.

The 34-year-old Brazilian’s struggle for recognition can be chalked up to a low-key demeanor that is nearly absent of any self-promotion, and an effective but workmanlike style that has led to few highlight-reel finishes that fans prefer. What’s more, the flyweight division has long been the least popular among UFC observers.

However, an impressive win in a title defense before an adoring hometown crowd could provide Pantoja with some long overdue recognition. But he’ll have to get past an inspired prospect who is looking to make the most of a fortunate opportunity.

Although Erceg (12-1) has just three UFC fights under his belt and is ranked No. 10, he benefits from the lack of depth at flyweight and the promotion’s recent trend of fast-tracking dynamic prospects into title shots, especially those who have shown their wares in other promotions.

Seeing as the top two flyweight contenders are already 0-5 combined against Pantoja and no other fighters in the top 10 have a title-shot-worthy resume, the promotion turned to Erceg, a power puncher who is also a former champion in the Eternal MMA promotion.

The 28-year-old Australian has earned performance bonuses in two of his three outings and is coming off a second-round knockout of battle-tested journeyman Matt Schnell. You can see more UFC 301 picks at SportsLine.

UFC 301 predictions

We’ll share one of Vithlani’s UFC 301 selections here: He is siding with Paul Craig (+410) to emerge with an upset over Caio Borralho (-550) in a middleweight clash to kick off the main card.

Craig (17-7-1) is a seven-year UFC veteran who has gone 8-7-1 in 16 UFC appearances. His uneven career has been marked by stunning upsets as a massive underdog, countered by losses against what appeared to be beatable opponents. The 36-year-old Scottish fighter has spent time in the rankings at both light heavyweight and middleweight but has lost three of his past four outings.

Borralho (15-1-1) is a former Future FC champion who entered the UFC with some recognition following two appearances on “Dana White’s Contender Series.” The versatile 31-year-old Brazilian fighter is 4-0 in the UFC, with three of those wins coming by decision.

“Craig has faced a much higher level of competition and, with his array of submission attacks from top or bottom position, I’m willing to take a shot at this underdog price,” Vithlani told SportsLine. You can see more UFC 301 picks at SportsLine.

How to make UFC 301 picks

Vithlani has strong picks for Pantoja vs. Erceg and other bouts on the UFC 301 card. He’s also backing a fighter who “is younger and more dangerous” to emerge with a dominant victory. Those picks are only available at SportsLine.

Who wins UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg, and how exactly does each fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks on UFC 301, all from the MMA expert who profited more than $1,500 on his UFC main-card picks in 2023, and find out.