The Trump VP picks that make the most sense

Most Republicans and Democrats seem to agree that Donald Trump will be the GOP presidential nominee again in 2024, after his wins in both the Iowa caucuses last week and the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday.

Barring a development that somehow upends the race, that would mean the next — and final — big question about the 2024 presidential ballot is Trump’s running mate.

So who might it be? Below is my rundown for who makes the most political sense, and why.

This list takes into account who is thought to be under consideration, who would fit with Trump’s personal style and politics, and who might provide the ticket something of value. Given Trump’s experience with his vice president, Mike Pence, surrounding the attack on the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, the list is weighted toward candidates who demonstrate loyalty to Trump — on his legal issues, on trying to overturn the 2020 election — a requirement that is undoubtedly a major part of his calculus. (For instance, one question that is likely to linger over a Trump VP pick is whether they would pardon him if he’s convicted of a crime and removed from office.)

1. Elise Stefanik

The Trump VP picks that make the most sense

Trump seems to like Republicans he has been able to convert into loyalists, and few embody such a wholesale conversion as Stefanik. Trump and his allies have had very good things to say about the New York congresswoman. She’s also proved a remarkable willingness to say pretty much anything to defend and support Trump, including most recently referring to Jan. 6 “hostages” and by claiming Trump hadn’t actually confused Nikki Haley with former House speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). If Pence showed us anything, it’s that obeisance might be Job 1.

Stefanik would also give him someone familiar with the power corridors in Washington, given she has served in House GOP leadership and has worked in the White House and on presidential campaigns.

2. Tim Scott

Nov. 8 Scott speaks during the debate.

The senator from South Carolina probably secured significant goodwill with Trump last week by delivering a well-timed endorsement. Just before the New Hampshire primary he backed Trump over Haley, despite Haley’s having initially appointed him to the Senate. (Trump spotlighted this at his victory party Tuesday, telling Scott he “must really hate” Haley. Scott responded, “I just love you.”)

The senator didn’t exactly light the world on fire with his own presidential campaign, and he doesn’t have a long history of professed devotion to Trump. But he’s perhaps the most broadly agreeable candidate on this list, and he’d provide the ticket some diversity.

3. Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Sarah Huckabee Sanders knows how to spin for Trump.

Sanders has gone to great lengths to make culture wars a focal point since being elected Arkansas governor in 2022. She’s also got plenty of experience spinning for Trump, having done so as his White House press secretary for two years. She brings the most direct personal tie of anyone on this list.

One potential drawback is the “Podiumgate” controversy (which in actuality involves a lectern). Arkansas lawmakers in October launched an audit into questions about the expensive purchase and whether documents were altered to cover something up. We haven’t gotten a final word on that. Also, Sanders has relatively little experience running tough races in her own right, facing only token opposition in both her 2022 primary and the general election.

4. Ron DeSantis

Ron DeSantis gave a perfunctory endorsement of Trump, but he is popular with the Republican base.

If he’s angling for it, it’s not terribly obvious right now; the Florida governor gave Trump only a perfunctory endorsement when he dropped out Sunday and has followed it up by saying things Trump probably doesn’t like. The constant slide of his presidential campaign also undermined his claim to being an electoral winner. And something would have to be done about the fact that both Trump and DeSantis live in Florida. (They would forfeit the state’s electoral votes unless one of them established residency elsewhere.)

But DeSantis did win Florida big in 2022. He is, despite his lack of traction this campaign, quite popular among Republican-base voters — more so than Nikki Haley. And he’s someone who could bring both political chops and a passion for provocation.

5. Nikki Haley

Nikki Haley’s electoral track record could be an asset to Trump.

It seems like a distant possibility right now, what with Haley staying in the race and making Trump angry in the process. She’s saying things that would be hard to explain later, including about Trump’s mental sharpness and his electability. Trump said recently that he “probably” wouldn’t pick her, because she’s not “presidential timber.” And he’s taken to not-subtly “otherizing” her by citing her Indian heritage.

She’s also someone whom noisy MAGA influencers, Trump allies and even Trump’s own son have made clear they want nowhere near the ticket. Trump would probably worry about her being loyal enough; even as United Nations ambassador, she showed something of a willingness to buck his White House (see: “With all due respect, I don’t get confused”).

But these things always appear distant possibilities in real time. Wounds heal. And Haley would present perhaps the best running mate if the goal is to reach out to segments of the party that aren’t sold on Trump. She was also a popular U.N. ambassador, including among Democrats. And her electoral track record — both as the last candidate standing against Trump and someone who shocked the political world by defeating more established male opponents in her 2010 gubernatorial primary — is certainly an asset. If the idea is to just win, she might make the most sense.

6. Kristi Noem

Kristi Noem is allied with Trump but has a relatively low national profile.

The South Dakota governor has long featured on lists like this. It’s not clear what she would add that anyone else couldn’t provide — apart from appealing to Midwestern voters — and she has little in the way of a national profile on which to build.

But sometimes a relatively blank slate can be a good thing. And Noem has more of an alliance with Trump than many other governors.

7. J.D. Vance

Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio). (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)

The senator from Ohio might have undergone even more of a pro-Trump conversion than Stefanik. Vance’s punditry in 2016 was very anti-Trump, but he rode MAGA right into the Senate in 2022. Trump once remarked, in public, that “J.D. is kissing my ass he wants my support so much.” His brand of nationalistic populism could also complement Trump’s, and the “Hillbilly Elegy” author might understand Trump’s base better than Trump does.

But Vance’s performance in that 2022 campaign didn’t exactly scream, “Great candidate.” He underperformed every other statewide Ohio Republican by double digits. Also, the freshman senator might not be the ideal pick if the idea, as with Pence, is to have a studied political hand who can serve as a bridge to Congress and various constituencies.

8. Kari Lake

Kari Lake, former Republican candidate for Arizona governor, speaks during an interview at the Conservative Political Action Conference at National Harbor in Maryland on March 3.

Had she won the 2022 Arizona governor’s race, it’s likely Lake would be near the top of this list. But she didn’t. Lake didn’t underperform as much as other Trump-aligned candidates, but never holding office and losing your only campaign would be a pretty underwhelming résumé to join a national ticket with. She’s also running for Senate right now, which creates its own problems.

That said, Lake might align with Trump’s combative style more than anyone on this list. She relishes fights with her opponents and the media, and the former TV news anchor is a competent public speaker. She’s also an election denier with little compare — apart from Trump, of course — continuing to baselessly claim to this date that her 2022 race was stolen.

9. Vivek Ramaswamy

Vivek Ramaswamy was a cheerleader for Donald Trump when he was running against him.

Save for some brief scuffles between the entrepreneur and Trump’s campaign before the Iowa caucuses, Ramaswamy effectively ran as a surrogate for Trump in the 2024 presidential race. While other candidates declined to criticize Trump, Ramaswamy was actually cheerleading for him. Few campaigns have looked more like an effort to secure a job that isn’t actually the presidency.

Ramaswamy is certainly an effective messenger who might be more at home in the No. 2 role. But there’s a big problem, and it’s that he’s not someone Americans writ large seem to like very much; a Fox News poll last month showed twice as many Americans disliked him as liked him.