Japanese analyst’s most positive prognosis regards Hong Kong Vase contender Lebensstil

Japanese racing expert Toshi Onikubo has nominated emerging stayer Lebensstil as his country’s best chance of winning a Longines Hong Kong International Races (HKIR) feature event for the fifth consecutive year.

Onikubo – in Hong Kong to watch 14 Japanese gallopers attempt to add to the Land of the Rising Sun’s 20 HKIR victories, which include at least one win in 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022 – thinks Lebensstil is the horse to beat in Sunday’s Group One Hong Kong Vase (2,400m).

“The Vase always suits Japan,” said Onikubo, who completed the Godolphin Flying Start programme in 2021 before joining Net Dreamers, which operates the Japanese racing website netkeiba.com. “Because of the distance, of course, and that there are fewer Group Ones over a mile and a half in Hong Kong.

“Lebensstil is a really good chance. He won the St Leger prep race [the Group Two St Lite Kinen over 2,200m], but he bypassed the St Leger [the Group One Kikuka Sho over 3,000m]. His trainer has targeted the Vase and kept Joao Moreira on him.

“Group One 2,400m performer Shahryar finished third in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf. He won the 2021 Japanese Derby [the Tokyo Yushun] and the 2022 Dubai Sheema Classic, but he’s an older horse against a growing three-year-old, and the fact Lebensstil bypassed the classic race tells you everything.”

Overseas fixed-odds bookmakers agree with Onikubo that Hiroyasu Tanaka-prepared Lebensstil is Japan’s premier HKIR contender, with Prognosis, Namur and Mad Cool spearheading the Land of the Rising Sun’s challenges in the other big-money contests.

Prognosis is back in Hong Kong for his second scrap with Romantic Warrior after he was the Group One QE II Cup (2,000m) runner-up to the local superstar during April’s Champions Day meeting at Sha Tin.

“Back in April, Prognosis finished two lengths behind Romantic Warrior,” Onikubo said. “Hopefully, Sunday will be redemption day for Prognosis, but that two-length margin was quite decisive.

“Prognosis’ only chance of turning the tables is if Romantic Warrior is compromised following his trip Down Under.”

Namur confronts Golden Sixty in the Group One Hong Kong Mile after her shock last-start success at Kyoto booked her first overseas adventure.

“Namur won last time, in the Group One Mile Championship, and it was definitely her career-best performance,” Onikubo said of her 16-1 victory. “She was so impressive. She came from nowhere.

“I’d say she’d need a bit of pace to help her, but she’s one to watch in the Mile. It’s difficult against Golden Sixty, but she’s improving.”

Mad Cool is the top Japanese seed in the HKIR event in which the Land of the Rising Sun has registered its fewest wins, the Group One Hong Kong Sprint (1,200m).

“The Sprint is always difficult for a Japanese horse to win, but hopefully, Mad Cool can prove his class on Sunday,” Onikubo said. “He placed second in the Group One Sprinters Stakes over 1,200m last time.

“He was a bit unfortunate. He was a little too far behind in running. He showed his turn of foot but couldn’t catch the winner, Mama Cocha.”