The 2024 Phillies’ hot start is nothing like the 1995 false flag Phils
The 2024 Phillies’ hot start is nothing like the 1995 false flag Phils
You can tell the Phillies are red-hot.
They won on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball.
I don’t have the record in front of me, but it seems as though the Phillies are something like 3-47 in their last 50 appearances under the bright lights of ESPN’s national game-of-the-week broadcast. But last night, riding a huge Bryce Harper 3-run bomb, the Phils edged the Giants 5-4 and ran their record to an MLB-best 24-11.
They are on pace for 111 victories, the best start by any Phillies team, yes including the 101-win 2011 squad, since 1995.
The 1995 Phillies were among the most bizarre iterations in franchise history, and that’s saying something. The blazing hot start by this year’s star-studded roster bears absolutely no resemblance to the overachieving/underachieving Jekyll and Hyde ‘95 team that featured aging remnants of the 1993 pennant-winners and a toxic mix of replacement-level folks that would permeate Veterans Stadium for the remainder of the ‘90s.
Not only that, the 2024 Phillies have a track record of success, although they’ve obviously never started a season this hot before. Some will point to their easy schedule thus far and, to be fair, the Phils have taken advantage of what we knew was going to be the easiest part of their season. Their opponents have had a combined .458 winning percentage, third-lowest in baseball. According to ESPN’s Relative Power Index, their expected winning percentage should be .629, putting the Phils at No. 11 overall. It’s currently .686.
Even knowing they’re playing cupcakes, the Phils are winning more of these games than was even expected of them. And while Atlanta had to deal with a loaded Dodgers team this weekend and got swept in the process, their strength of schedule was 21st out of 30 teams, with an opponent’s combined winning percentage of .488.
(Hats off to the Orioles, by the way, who have played MLB’s toughest schedule and are still 23-11).
This is a team that has had two deep playoff runs the last two seasons. They have what is widely regarded as one of the best rotations in baseball, a lineup that goes hot and cold but routinely scores a bunch of runs, and a bullpen full of hard throwers with nasty stuff. They have been a World Series contender each of the last three seasons. They were expected to be extremely good, and have been extremely good in the recent past.
The 1995 Phillies had no such expectations.
Those Phils were 24-11 through first 35 games and ran their record to 37-18 on June 25, with a 4 1⁄2 game lead in the National League East.
Over the next month, the ‘95 Phils went 6-20, including a brutal stretch where they lost 12 of 14 and 16 out of 19, falling 8 games out of first by July 20.
Whereas this year’s Phils are being powered by their brilliant rotation featuring Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez, Cristopher Sanchez, Taijuan Walker and Spencer Turnbull, the ‘95 rotation was filled with injured and/or aging veterans and youngsters who faded down the stretch.
Tyler Green famously made the All-Star team after a brilliant first half in which the 25-year-old former first-round pick made us all believe he was a building block for the future. In 14 starts he put up a 2.81 ERA and allowed an opponents’ batting average of just .233, with a 3.68 FIP. Following the break, Green posted a 10.68 ERA in 11 starts, as opponents hit .387 off him with a staggering 1.102 OPS. He struck out 27 and walked 25 in 44 2⁄3 innings, giving up at least four earned runs in nine of his final 11 starts. He didn’t make it out of the 2nd inning in three of his final four starts.
The rotation was supposed to be fronted by 28-year-olds Curt Schilling and Tommy Greene, but Greene only made six starts and appeared in 11 games, going 0-5 with an 8.29 ERA in an injury-plagued season. Schilling made just 17 starts and, though he pitched well, was not dominant, with a 3.57 ERA. David West, a left-over from the ‘93 team, was supposed to start in the rotation, but pitched just eight games before he was lost for the year with an injury. Paul Quantrill led the team with 29 starts and 179 1⁄3 innings, with a 4.67 ERA and a 1.428 WHIP. Lefty Mike Mimbs had a 4.15 ERA in 136 2⁄3 innings, and in trying to patch holes, former Met Sid Fernandez was signed to chip in. When healthy, he was effective, with a 3.34 ERA in 11 starts, but he was rarely healthy, and youngster Jeff Juden was also around, making 10 starts to varying degrees of effectiveness.
The bullpen’s end-of-year numbers didn’t look awful. Heathcliff Slocumb saved 32 games with a 2.89 ERA, Mike Williams, Ricky Bottalico and Toby Borland were fine, and youngsters Kyle Abbott and Russ Springer were OK in their limited chances.
Offensively, it’s not good when Jim Eisenreich, who was an outstanding role player for the ‘93 pennant-winners, is your top offensive performer. He hit .332/.396/.473 in the first half, second on the team in fWAR at 1.5, with third baseman Charlie Hayes leading the way with 1.9 fWAR and a .305/.384/.444 slash line through the All Star Game. Mickey Morandini would finish the season 2nd in fWAR, at 2.5, with a .283/.350/.417 slash line, but this lineup had no punch whatsoever.
In 1995, the Phillies offense was dead last in home runs, the only team with less than 100 (94). The next-closest was the Cardinals, at 107. Their .716 OPS was third-worst, and scored the 2nd-fewest runs over all that season. Once again, injuries had a lot to do with it.
Only five players played at least 100 games, and only one player, Hayes, played at least 140 (141). Gregg Jefferies, signed as a big-money free agent to supplement a lineup that still had Darren Daulton, Dave Hollins, Kevin Stocker and Lenny Dykstra in it, struggled for most of the season before rallying late to finish with a .306 batting average and a .797 OPS, but he only appeared in 114 games.
Dykstra amassed only 62 games. Hollins, 65. Daulton managed stay healthy until late August, when an injury sidelined him for the season, putting the final nail in the Phillies’ coffin. At midseason, the Phils shipped Hollins off to Boston for a disappointing left-handed power hitter Mark Whiten, who had once famously hit four homers in a single game, and the team traded for Andy Van Slyke midseason as well. But it was no use.
The downfall of that ‘95 team was easy to see coming. It felt as you were watching it that they were doing it with smoke and mirrors and, in late June, when the first-place Cincinnati Reds and second place Atlanta Braves came into Veterans Stadium for six huge games, the Phillies’ collapse began.
Honestly, you could see it coming a mile away.
The Phils did send five players to the All Star Game — Dykstra, Daulton, Green, Morandini and Slocumb and for those of us who were lucky enough to be there, one memorable night in August almost made the whole debacle worthwhile.
We’ve gotten used to Japanese phenoms coming to the United States and excelling, but in 1995, Hideo Nomo was really the first to burst onto the national scene, putting up an amazing rookie season with the Dodgers. He started the All Star game for the National League and entered his first-ever appearance at the Vet with a league-best 2.28 ERA and a 10-4 record.
The Phils absolutely bombed him on national TV that night, ambushing him for six earned runs (seven total) in just three innings in a 17-4 laugher that featured Jeff Juden pitching a complete game and hitting a grand slam, as well as Gregg Jefferies hitting for the cycle.
The whole game is utterly rewatchable… if you have four hours.
There are a number of differences between the 2024 Phillies and their ‘95 counterparts and barring a catastrophic run of injuries to this year’s group, it’s safe to say these Phils will outpace the 1995 team as the season rolls along.
And if you’d like to hear more about that ‘95 collapse, make sure to listen to Justin Klugh and Trevor Strunk, as they chronicled the beginning of the end of that ‘95 squad on an episode of The Dirty Inning a couple years ago.