Severe Storms Could Produce Multiple Rounds Of Hail, Wind Damage, Tornadoes In Central US

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T​ornadoes, large hail and damaging straight-line winds are all concerns through this weekend from a classic springtime weather pattern that will ignite two rounds of severe thunderstorms in the Plains and Midwest.

The Quick Takeaway

A pair of jet stream disturbances will track from the Rockies into the Plains from Thursday through Sunday. Both of those energy impulses will spark daily bouts of severe weather.

R​ound 1

Thursday: Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible in the central and southern Plains.

-Early Day: There may be some morning to early afternoon showers across the Plains, but these will likely remain sub-severe.

-Afternoon and Evening: Storms may be relatively isolated at first, but any that turn severe could produce very large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat, from western Texas to western parts of Oklahoma and Kansas, southwest Nebraska and northeastern Colorado.

I​f any supercell thunderstorms can remain separate from one another, then there is also the possibility of a strong tornado or two in portions of western Oklahoma and western Kansas.

-Evening to overnight: Thunderstorms, some severe at times, will likely erupt over western North Texas and southwestern Oklahoma with the threat of hail and gusty damaging winds.

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F​riday-Friday night: The risk of severe weather will shift farther east in the Plains and Midwest, but it’s still uncertain how storms in the morning will affect what happens later in the day. Some of the storms in the morning hours could also be severe, with the threat continue into the afternoon and hours.

With that being said, a broad area from Iowa to north-central Texas has the possibility of severe thunderstorms that could produce large hail, wind damage and a few tornadoes. Dallas-Fort Worth; Kansas City; Tulsa, Oklahoma; and Des Moines, Iowa, are some cities that might see severe weather.

R​ound 2

Saturday: The second of the two jet-stream disturbances will budge into the Plains beginning Saturday. That means severe thunderstorms could sprout from northern Texas northward into much of Oklahoma, southern and eastern Kansas, northwest Arkansas and western and northern Missouri and the upper Mississippi Valley.

T​he forecast is still uncertain, but any storms that turn severe could produce wind damage, large hail and a tornado threat.

A heightened risk of tornadic storms is possible in a corridor from north central Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma and south-central and southeast Kansas, including Oklahoma City and Tulsa, Oklahoma, and Wichita, Kansas. But, it’s too early to be certain of that potential.

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S​unday

Severe weather is likely to continue in association with this system on Sunday a bit farther east, from northeast Texas to much of Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, eastern Iowa and southern Wisconsin. Uncertainty is still high, but there could be damaging winds gusts, hail and some tornadoes in this corridor.

A Common Springtime Setup

This severe thunderstorm threat comes from a familiar foe this time of the year – the western trough, or a southward dip in the jet stream, that is set to develop in the West by later this week.

Riding through that u-shaped jet stream will be a couple of more prominent disturbances that pivot from the Rockies into the central U.S. Both disturbances will pull up warm and increasingly muggy air from the Gulf of Mexico, creating an environment that will be unstable and ready to fire thunderstorms.

Chris Dolce has been a senior meteorologist with weather.com for over 10 years after beginning his career with The Weather Channel in the early 2000s.