Russian nuke exercises: Would Russia really attack Ukraine?

Russia has announced it is planning nuclear weapons exercises on the Ukrainian border

On Monday, one day ahead of the latest inauguration of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Russia’s Defense Ministry announced plans for tactical nuclear weapons maneuvers close to the Ukrainian border in “the near future.” It would be the first time such exercises were held since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The drills are to be carried out by missile units from the aerial defense’s Southern Military District, with the participation of air and naval forces and the aim of “increasing the readiness of nonstrategic nuclear forces,” the ministry said.

That area spans not just accepted Russian territory, but also Crimea, which was annexed in 2014, and four Ukrainian regions in the southeast that have been partially occupied by Russia.

Nuclear threats from Moscow, criticism in the West

Western officials have repeatedly criticized Russian leadership for making nuclear threats. Putin has not openly threatened a nuclear strike, though he has warned the West of the possibility of nuclear war in the event of direct confrontation.

Former Russian president and deputy chairman of the Russia’ Security Council Dmitry Medvedev, on the other hand, has openly threatened the use of nuclear weapons on several occasions, including once again on Monday.

Medvedev also linked the decision to hold tactical nuclear weapons exercises with deliberations in the West over sending allied ground troops to Ukraine.

Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov also linked the planned nuclear exercises with statements by Western politicians regarding a possible deployment of troops in Ukraine, mentioning French President Emmanuel Macron in particular. Peskov spoke of a “new round of escalating tensions.”

What are tactical nuclear weapons?

Tactical nuclear weapons are different from so-called strategic nuclear weapons because they are less powerful and have a smaller range. They can take the form of artillery, but are most often ballistic or cruise missiles. They are fired using systems that can carry conventional as well as nuclear warheads.

Nuclear warheads for ground-to-air missile systems with a range of up to 500 kilometers (311 miles), and sea- or air-based missile systems with a range of up to 600 kilometers, are considered tactical nuclear weapons.

However, there are no clear limits to the classification. Some sources classify the new Russian Kalibr cruise missiles and the Kinzhal hypersonic missile with a range of up to several thousand kilometers as tactical nuclear weapons.

Nuking Ukraine ‘makes no sense’

Experts interviewed by DW agree that the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine is highly improbable and would be pointless. “From a military point of view, the use of nuclear weapons by Russia in Ukraine makes no sense under any circumstances,” said Pavel Podvig, of the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research. Nothing had changed in this respect, he added.

Russia would not be able to actually practice attacks during the exercise, only the procedure for using the weapons, according to the expert. “This is because nonstrategic warheads are normally stored separately from the missiles and aircraft that can fire them,” said Podvig.

Nikolai Sokov of the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation believes there had never been any plans to use nuclear arms in Ukraine — even in the fall of 2022, when the Russian army withdrew from the Kharkiv and Kherson regions.

Some US media had reported that this could be discussed in Russia, Sokov said. But now, Russian troops clearly have the upper hand over the Ukrainian Armed Forces in many respects, and are taking more and more territory in eastern Ukraine, the expert said. Kyiv is even expecting the Russian attacks to expand, he added.

Nuclear exercises as a warning to the West

Nuclear escalation has been one of the West’s biggest fears since the beginning of the Russian invasion. Western politicians and experts say this is precisely why weapons are being supplied to Ukraine in a slow and measured fashion.

Mathieu Boulègue from the Wilson Center in the US said Moscow is counting on just this. He does not believe that Russia’s planned nuclear exercises are “solely due to France’s attitude.” In his opinion, they are part of the “constant intimidation and saber-rattling” of the Kremlin. The aim is to break the West’s resolve to support Ukraine, he argued.

Putin also wants to present himself as a “strong leader,” especially in the run-up to May 9, when Russia celebrates the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany, according to Boulègue.

Most experts see this as a warning to the West. “There is nothing good about this political signal, but we should try to take it as soberly as possible,” Podvig concluded.

This article was adapted from the original Ukrainian.

Author: Roman Goncharenko