Republicans Face Being Blocked From California Senate Election

Senate candidate Steve Garvey attends the 2022 Harold and Carole Pump Foundation Gala at The Beverly Hilton on August 19, 2022 in Beverly Hills, California. Garvey, a Republican, may be locked out of the November election, according to some recent polls.

Republicans may be completely locked out of California’s Senate election, as recent polls ahead of the March primary suggest there is a chance two Democrats could advance to the November general election.

California voters will head to the polls on March 5 to vote in the primary elections, including the crucial Senate race that has seen candidates spar over key issues, including the state’s housing crisis, economy, climate, and immigration. On the Democratic side, three current members of Congress—Representatives Barbara Lee, Katie Porter and Adam Schiff—are running. Republicans have largely rallied around former baseball star Steve Garvey as their top candidate.

However, recent polls are split on whether Garvey will advance to the general election. The possibility of Republicans being locked out of the race is due to the electoral system used by California.

California is among the few states that use the “jungle primary” system, in which all candidates, regardless of their political party, will run on the same ballot during the primary election in March. The two candidates who receive the most votes will then go on to the general election, creating a challenge for Republicans as the state’s voters select two Democrats to run in November.

Four public polls have been released into the race so far in 2024, with two showing Garvey advancing to the general election while the others show a two-Democrat race in November.

Newsweek reached out to the California Republican Party for comment via its contact form.

An Emerson College poll released Tuesday found Schiff and Garvey advancing to the November election, with Schiff receiving 28 percent of the vote and Garvey winning 22 percent. Meanwhile, Porter trailed with 16 percent, with Lee earning 9 percent of the vote.

The poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters from February 16 to 18 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

A separate Emerson College poll, conducted from January 11 to 14, similarly found both Schiff and Garvey receiving the most votes, with Schiff winning support from 25 percent and Garvey 18 percent of respondents. Porter again placed third with 18 percent of the vote. That poll surveyed 1,087 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

Other polls, however, suggest Garvey may not make it to the November election.

A California Elections & Policy Poll found Schiff receiving support from 25 percent of voters, while Porter and Garvey each received 15 percent.

This poll was conducted by the University of Southern California Dornsife/Price Center for Urban Politics and Policy, California State University Long Beach and California State Polytechnic University, Pomona. It surveyed 1,416 voters from January 21 to 29 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.

Meanwhile, a University of California, Berkeley poll found that 21 percent of voters would support Schiff, 17 percent would back Porter and 13 percent would vote for Garvey. The poll surveyed 4,470 likely voters from January 4 to 8 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Even if Garvey advances to the general election, the race is unlikely to become competitive in the deeply Democratic state, which backed President Joe Biden by more than 29 points in the 2020 election.

Republicans were locked out of the 2016 California Senate election when Kamala Harris, then serving as the state’s attorney general, was elected over Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez.

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