Rate Cut Story Is Not Over, Says Deutsche Bank's Nolting

There is a question, though, just more broadly, of how much people have really internalized this idea. Of no rate cuts this year for the Federal Reserve. Has that truly been baked into the idea of what that means for a broadening out in the rally and potentially everything other than the Magnificent 3? Yeah. It’s no longer 7, right. So no, I think importantly, if you look at the rate cut story, I think what what needs to be discussed is the rate cut story is not about the economy being, let’s say, so weak that there needs to be rate cuts is still about the strength in the economy. And of course, the inflation, which we call high for longer, not higher for longer because we think it’s not going through the roof, it will stay at an elevated level. I think that’s important. So I would still think and that’s why I don’t think it’s priced out that there is a cut off the Fed this year probably in the fourth quarter. And I do think I think it’s really priced in the market that the ECB will cut in June and then I see probably every quarter they will cut. By the way that’s also making probably more attractive and quite interesting. So I think this rate Castori is not over from my point of view. A lot of people are suggesting now that the Pivot party is over well, the other thing that can sustain us is this idea of stability. If we don’t have volatility in rates that that’s enough to sustain some sort of rally. Do you buy that or do you think that if we have stability at these levels that’s going to really change a lot of feces that are just hinged on this idea that the rate cut will come? I think what we really watch very closely is the real rates. For example, if you the 10 years now 225 in the USI think whenever this is moving faster than the equity market also gets say a bit nervous and volatility is rising. So as long as it’s quite stable that seems fine, but if that’s rising faster which we have seen. Just recently then you see also slight pickup in volatility, but again if if that’s stabilizing from from that point of view, I think that’s quite a decent outlook nevertheless. Also in terms of where we are in seasonality, I think if you take some gains of your overweight position is probably not wrong. And if there’s a kind of set back in the market, which I would say is sound and maybe welcomed, then it’s rather buying opportunity. So that’s how we position. It’s no longer completely overweight on the equity side.