Australian voters are increasingly driven by issues rather than party loyalty – and that’s bad news for the old political order

In line with international trends, Australians are more likely to vote according to policies they like than in line with their political allegiances. Photograph: Lisa Maree Williams/Getty Images

As Australia pivots away from the two major parties, and a wave of generational turnover introduces a cohort of more progressive voters, the political landscape is ushering in a more fluid electorate, motivated more by issues than by traditional party ties.

I crunched the numbers to reveal the issues driving this change, with climate concerns taking centre stage.

Millennials and Gen Z, now constituting 43% of the electorate, are remaining progressive as they age, challenging the notion of conservative shifts over time. Younger generations are also staying politically younger for longer – delaying various markers of adulthood.

Once on the fringes, the Australian Greens are capitalising on this shift, posing challenges for the established political order. Climate-related issues, particularly protection of the environment and global warming, have surged in importance, influencing voting decisions.

This mirrors a global trend where elections are increasingly shaped by climate concerns, leading to a rise in support for green parties across Europe and the potential emergence of a green movement in Southeast Asia.

Based on my research, climate awareness and adaptability will be key determinants of future success for any political party in Australia.

Policies are key for most voters

Examining more than a decade of data from the Australian Election Study (AES) across five federal elections (2010-2022), my analysis reveals policy issues are the primary driver for a majority of voters (56.3%).

This is trailed by consideration of the parties (22.4%), party leaders (11.5%), and local candidates in their electorate (9.9%).

Significantly, the environment and global warming have taken on a more prominent role in elections, with approximately one in four voters (24.7%) highlighting an environmental issue as their top concern in the 2022 election – a substantial uptick from the 11.8% recorded in the 2010 election.

Labor emerges as preferred manager of environment, cost of living

Respondents were also asked how important each issue was to them personally when deciding how to vote, and they were asked to choose a major party that had policies closest to their own views in each policy area.

Among the most prominent and emerging issues – the environment, global warming, and cost of living – the Labor party emerged as the preferred manager.

In issues of decreasing (but still substantial) importance, voters leaned towards Labor for health and Medicare, while the Coalition gained favour for management of the economy and taxation.

The Coalition appears to be losing the game in what was once its stronghold. In the 2022 election, a noteworthy shift occurred as, for the first time in the past five elections, a majority of the voters perceived Labor as more aligned with their own views on immigration and refugee and asylum seekers, traditionally deemed Coalition territory.

Australians exploring parties beyond established players

For the issues that were consistently covered in all the five elections, the environment and global warming appeared to have the largest share of unmatched voters – individuals who identified a major party aligned with their views on a crucial issue but ultimately did not cast their vote for that party. A matched voter could also be someone who selected no difference or don’t know indicating no clear alignment with a major party, and also did not end up voting for any of them.

Unsurprisingly, unmatched climate voters showcased a notable presence of left-leaning voters who reported Labor to be close to their own views but had an alternative in the Greens come voting day (67.8% for the environment and 69.0% for global warming).

About one in five reported Labor to be closer to their own climate views but supported another party or the independents at the ballot box (19.6% for the environment and 20.8% for global warming).

This shows that although the Greens have established themselves as the issue owner of environmental protection, Australians won’t hesitate to explore other options beyond the established players.

We’re becoming a nation of swingers

The 2022 election was a political watershed for Australia, but in many ways was a consequence of broader societal shifts. The number of voters who toe party lines is decreasing. Issues that are traditionally characterised as centre-left are increasingly salient.

Climate change, for example, has been and will remain high on the political agenda for the foreseeable future.

This is good news for the Greens because the party’s gradual rise in support can be attributed to generational replacement, where younger generations – who socialised in the context of heated debates and climate protests – are replacing older generations at the polling booth.

This, without a shadow of doubt, is bad news for the Coalition. However, it also poses a legitimate concern for the Labor party, especially in the younger demographic that skews towards a more progressive stance.

The growing importance of existential issues such as climate change, along with survivalist issues such as housing affordability and the cost of living, means the modern electorate is unlikely to swing to the right any time soon.

Today’s Australian voter is a fluid citizen who is more willing to swing based on issues and who is less encumbered by traditional party ties. The implications of this are profound: parties across the ideological spectrum will compete in much harder terrain to win and hold on to these votes.

Dr Intifar Chowdhury is a youth researcher and a lecturer in government at Flinders University