Packers playoff picture: Green Bay's updated NFC wild-card chances to make 2023 NFL playoffs

Packers playoff picture: Green Bay’s updated NFC wild-card chances to make 2023 NFL playoffs

The Packers won 13 games for three consecutive seasons to start the Matt LaFleur coaching tenure with three playoff berths as NFC North champions. But in 2022, Aaron Rodgers’ final season in Green Bay, they just missed a wild-card spot at 8-9.

Now the Packers have a good shot of returning to the playoffs after a one-year absence under LaFleur, thanks to the recent play of Rodgers’ replacement at quarterback, Jordan Love.

Green Bay hadwon three consecutive games to get to .500 at 6-6 going into its Week 14 game, but it cooled off in a shocking loss at the Giants on Monday night. Based on that result, here’s breaking down whether the Packers will finish strong enough to qualify, unlike last season:

MORE: Updated NFL playoff picture for Week 14

Packers playoff picture

The Packers are still positioned as the No. 7 seed and third wild-card in the NFC. Among five teams at 6-7, they are tied for the best conference record with the Rams, 4-4. The Packers then have the head-to-head tiebreaker vs. the Rams.

Green Bay is just behind NFC North rival Minnesota (7-6), the current No. 6 seed, among wild cards. But with a loss on Monday, the Packers remain three games behind the division-leading Lions (9-4) with four weeks left.

The Packers have wins over the No. 8 Rams (6-7) and No. 11 Saints (6-7). They won’t play the No. 9 Seahawks (6-7) but lost to the No. 10 Falcons (6-7).

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Packers remaining schedule

The Packers had the easiest slate of any team in the NFL in terms of combined record of the remaining opponents from Weeks 14 through Week 18. The teams left had a total winning percentage of .359 (23-41). No team the Packers are set to face down the stretch is more than a game above .500, but that didn’t mean much right away in losing to the Giants.

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Packers’ updated playoff chances

The Packers can longer win out based on that schedule. Their toughest game remaining is clear: the rematch with Minnesota on the road. Before then, away from Green Bay, they should beat Carolina. Tampa Bay and Chicago have become better and scrappier of late, so those will be much trickier, but the Packers will be favored in both home games.

Based on the landscape of the NFC, the Packers already have more than a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs. Failing to get that win over the Giants will made it more diecy. The Packers now need to go 3-1 to feel good about qualifying as at least a wild card.

That would push the Packers to 9-8 and just getting above. 500 should be good enough. But the Packers, having split with the Lions and getting a chance to do that with the Vikings in Week 17, should also have some eyes on stealing the division crown.

The Packers need to make up three games on the Lions and also stay ahead of the Vikings. They can do this by making sure they beat the Vikings and Bears to finish with a division record of 4-2. They then need to have the Lions and Vikings split their games to both finish 3-3 in the division, giving the three-way tiebreaker to the Packers.

Green Bay, assuming it then finishes at least 3-1 with two of the wins coming vs Minnesota and Chicago and Minnesota and Detroit split, would need to make up two more games on Detroit. While the Packers still play the Buccaneers and Panthers outside the division, the Lions need to play the Broncos (7-6) at home and Cowboys (9-3) on the road.

The chances are slim for the Packers to win the North and earn the No. 3 seed. But in the smaller playoff picture, they can be somewhat confident they can still secure the wild-card berth that eluded them last season.