Nuggets-Timberwolves betting preview: Key stats, trends and more for epic second-round series
NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) ORG XMIT: 776035721 ORIG FILE ID: 2148228041
Some people (read: me) are calling it the postseason matchup of the century. A true heavyweight fight between two bona fide NBA title contenders who won 57 and 56 games, respectively, in the regular season. A matchup that could’ve happened in this year’s NBA Finals, and no one would’ve blinked.
And it’s happening in the second round of the 2024 playoffs. Hoo boy.
This Saturday night, the reigning champion Denver Nuggets will continue their repeat pursuit against the rising division rival Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference Semifinals. It is the definition of big-boy basketball, the perfect matchup to officially usher in a new exciting era of the NBA as some long-time legendary careers look toward the sunset.
So what trends or players should bettors monitor as this postseason battle unfolds over the next few weeks? Don’t worry, I’ve got you covered.
Let’s dive into seemingly every possible angle of this epic Nuggets-Timberwolves second-round series.
Main Characters
Nuggets
C Nikola Jokic: The likely soon-to-be three-time MVP and reigning NBA Finals MVP picked up right where he left off after winning the first championship of his career. Jokic finished his ninth season in the league averaging 26.4 points, 12.4 rebounds, and nine assists per game. Through one series, he is on pace to lead the entire NBA playoffs in points, rebounds, and assists — an unthinkable feat when he became the first person to ever achieve it in last year’s postseason. Jokic is the best player in the world, and he remains the league’s most efficient offensive player by a country mile. He is the man who makes the Nuggets hum, and it’s because he does absurd things like this:
this Jokic pass is just stupid pic.twitter.com/vuozYKlNvF
— CJ Fogler account may or may not be notable (@cjzero) April 28, 2024
G Jamal Murray: Few professional basketball players are as complex or confusing as the Denver point guard. In the regular season, Murray is usually good but not consistently great. There’s a reason he has yet to qualify for an All-Star team. But in the playoffs? Oh, man. We’re talking about one of the greatest playoff performers of his generation. Look no further for recent evidence of this phenomenon than watching Murray ruthlessly bury the Los Angeles Lakers in the last round while dealing with an injured calf.
The biggest increase in career scoring average from reg season to playoffs in NBA history:
1. Jamal Murray +7.4
2. Nikola Jokic +6.6Absolutely insane.
— Micah Adams (@MAdamsStatGuy) April 30, 2024
Timberwolves
G Anthony Edwards: He’s been dubbed the next Michael Jordan, and fewer people have started bristling at the suggestion. An incredibly electric, explosive, and brash superstar, Edwards, in due time, might become the most popular player in the NBA. He seems to already be on track. In his fourth year in the league, the former No. 1 overall pick and two-time All-Star took that next step. He is the definitive leader of the Timberwolves, the man they count on to set an example for everyone and win a game in the final moments. Oh, and he’s just 22. It’s no wonder Minnesota is in the second round for the first time in two decades.
Edwards seemingly oozes charisma every time he does something cool (which is often):
ANTHONY EDWARDS ARE YOU SERIOUS 🤯🤯🤯
WOLVES UP 4 WITH 2 MINUTES REMAINING ON TNT pic.twitter.com/P1DX4w8Cj4
— NBA (@NBA) April 29, 2024
C Rudy Gobert: It’s funny what happens when you surround an all-time defender with a supporting cast who can actually augment his unique abilities. Even despite earning three Defensive Player of the Year Awards with the Utah Jazz, some found it amusing to make fun of Gobert for simply not sustaining an elite defense (largely by himself) the moment Utah ran into offensive juggernauts in the postseason. Well, the Timberwolves have solved that “problem,” and now the likely soon-to-be four-time DPOY anchored a historically exceptional Minnesota defense, arguably one of the best this century.
Said without a hint of irony: Put some respect on Gobert’s (defensive) game.
Rudy Gobert's been a full-time starter for nine seasons. His team's defensive ranks in those nine seasons:
2015-16: 7th
2016-17: 3rd
2017-18: 2nd
2018-19: 1st
2019-20: 13th
2020-21: 1st
2021-22: 9th
2022-23: 8th
2023-24: 1st— Andy Bailey (@AndrewDBailey) April 27, 2024
Key Stats and Trends
Nuggets: Open 3-point shooting
Before their series-clinching performance against the Lakers, where they shot 16-of-38 (42.1 percent) from behind the 3-point line, the Nuggets were comfortably the worst team on open 3-point shots in these playoffs so far. It was just a four-game sample size, and Denver did get the eventual much-needed course correction, but that poor shooting from deep is part of what made the Nuggets’ challenge with the Lakers a little more strenuous than they probably had hoped. Every playoff series is its own story, and the Nuggets get to start fresh with Minnesota.
But if they continue shooting that poorly on open shots against a top-notch defense, it’ll be hard to see Denver score enough against the Timberwolves to win. Young role players like Christian Braun and Peyton Watson (in addition to Denver’s starters) must consistently hit more of these shots moving forward.
Timberwolves: Clutch-time offense
Minnesota has just about everything you want in a championship-caliber team. Well, everything except a great offense in the closing minutes of the fourth quarter. In the regular season, the Timberwolves were merely 22nd in offensive rating in clutch time.
The Timberwolves enjoyed much-improved clutch execution in their first-round series sweep over the Phoenix Suns, which is a terrific sign moving forward. But part of that might have been due to the opponent — a poorly-built and top-heavy Phoenix roster. The Nuggets are arguably the best clutch-time team in NBA basketball. They do not blink when the game is close in the fourth quarter. It’s how they put away the Lakers in a series where they outscored Los Angeles by just 11 points.
If Minnesota can’t sustain its first-round clutch time execution, Denver will have a massive advantage in a series that will likely feature every game going down to the wire.
X-Factors
Nuggets: F Michael Porter Jr.
A back injury and multiple subsequent surgeries have most likely robbed Porter of most of the off-the-dribble athleticism he once possessed. But these days he’s readily accepted a role as a tertiary sharpshooting scorer in Denver’s offense, and he’s shining more than ever. This, after occasionally showing off strange inconsistency earlier in his career. That has driven head coach Michael Malone mad to the point of intermittently benching him in the past.
In Round 1, Porter was arguably the Nuggets’ most consistent player, averaging nearly 22.8 points and 8.4 rebounds while shooting 55 percent from the field and 48.8 percent from the 3-point line (on eight attempts per game!). Those are monster numbers for a third option. It is not a stretch to say he may have likely saved the reigning champions’ season when the rest of his teammates were not playing all that well.
The below game-tying Porter shot at the 1:39 timestamp was one of the biggest momentum-shifting plays against the Lakers for Denver:
And against the Timberwolves, Porter is once again in a position to shine.
While Denver will count on Jokic doing his thing in the paint against Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns, he’s going to need another running mate on some nights. Murray has Denver’s toughest offensive assignment of the series by far, as he will draw a relentless wave of Mike Conley, McDaniels, and sometimes even Edwards. That means Porter should draw a favorable matchup as a lights-out stretch-3 or stretch-4. If he continues his hot offensive play from the first round, it might not matter what the Timberwolves’ defense throws at the Nuggets.
Timberwolves: F Karl-Anthony Towns
Imagine telling any NBA fan in, say, 2021 that Porter and Towns might be the most important secondary characters in a series that could eventually decide the winner of the title.
Towns has had a mercurial reputation for not taking advantage of offensive matchups he should. Despite a beyond-gifted skill set as a seven-footer who weighs nearly 250 pounds, Towns has been criticized for disappearing and failing to use his unique size. Far too often, Towns would needlessly settle for long jumpers instead of attacking the rim.
That was not really the case this year, especially against the Suns. Towns has readily accepted a No. 2 scoring option role to Edwards, and that, in turn, has let his game flourish with confidence and decisiveness. The below hustle play is simply not what a younger Towns would not have made before, and it’s paid off with tremendous dividends for Minnesota:
If Ant really gets goin, this KAT offensive rebound got him going pic.twitter.com/xYdRAJh8B1
— Dane Moore (@DaneMooreNBA) April 29, 2024
On paper, the Nuggets do not necessarily have an ideal one-on-one matchup for Towns if he’s consistently aggressive. He will likely draw the stout Aaron Gordon, who will make him work really hard, but then that means Denver won’t have anyone to consistently stick on Edwards because of his unique strength. If Denver elects to put Gordon on Edwards from time to time, that means Towns should have the room to do whatever he wants. If he takes advantage, the Nuggets’ defense might become too compromised.
Also, Towns has an unfortunate reputation for unnecessarily getting himself into foul trouble. It’s imperative he finds a way to avoid these kinds of decisions and stay on the court as much as possible. Otherwise, Denver will maintain a sizable (pun not intended) size advantage.
Series Outlook
Denver and Minnesota really might be the best and two most complete teams in the NBA.
It might be too early to say this, but whatever, let’s plant the seed: This series feels like a modern reincarnation of the old Kobe Bryant-Shaquille O’Neal Lakers facing off against the Tim Duncan Spurs multiple times in the second round in the early aughts. That second-round matchup happened three times, with the winner eventually advancing to the Finals, winning it all on two of three occasions. Given the past futility of the Nuggets and Timberwolves, the NBA world is still getting used to this becoming a real rivalry even with a tough first-round battle last year. I have a good hunch that will no longer be the case after this series.
The Timberwolves were built to stop the Nuggets. They arguably have the best answers (Gobert and his wings) for Jokic and Murray. Plus, Edwards’ ascension to true stardom comes at an ideal time because Denver has never really had an ideal one-on-one matchup. While the Nuggets’ top-seven remains great, they will have to lean hard on their young role players Braun and Watson really maturing in this series.
The Nuggets were hobbled, tired, and probably played their C+ game in a competitive five-game series against Los Angeles. Against any other top seed, I have a hard time believing the Lakers wouldn’t have advanced to the second round.
The Nuggets won because they have Jokic, the best player in the world. They still have the league’s best starting five between Jokic, Murray, Porter, Gordon, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. They have one of the best coaches in the league in Malone. And when push comes to shove, they usually bring their A-game when they absolutely have to — their remarkable play in clutch time exemplifies that.
Minnesota is dramatically less experienced than Denver and the Nuggets have the all-too-crucial home-court advantage with a potential four games taking place in the Denver altitude.
On this occasion, I’m betting on the Nuggets’ battle-tested experience and the fact they have the best player in the world being enough to advance to a second consecutive Western Conference Finals. Because that’s usually how this works.
Prediction: Nuggets in 6
This article originally appeared on For The Win: Nuggets-Timberwolves betting preview: Key stats, trends and more for epic second-round series