The surprising Labor figures convinced Peter Dutton may win the next election - and here's why

Labor state governments think Peter Dutton will win electionThey did scare campaign on nuclear energy before key speech READ MORE: Peter van Onselen on Dutton's Budget Reply 

Labor state governments seem convinced Opposition Leader Peter Dutton will win the next election judging by their response to his nuclear energy policy.

Even before he delivered his Budget Reply speech on Thursday night, rattled Labor figures started a scare campaign against his plan to convert disused coal-fired power stations into nuclear reactors.

New South Wales Environment Minister Penny Sharpe tweeted about a lower house vote to ban nuclear power in the state.

'Breaking news: The NSW Legislative Assembly has voted against nuclear power having a future in the NSW energy mix,' she said on Tuesday night.

'Not one Liberal or National Party MP voted for or against that proposition.'

Labor state governments seem convinced Opposition Leader Peter Dutton will win the next election judging by their response to his nuclear energy policy (he is pictuered with hsi wife Kirilly)

Queensland Labor Premier Steven Miles tried a pre-emptive strike on Monday after Daily Mail Australia revealed Nuclear for Climate Australia, a group endorsed by Liberal and National MPs, had earmarked 13 sites for a nuclear reactor.

'The LNP backed "Nuclear for Climate Australia" has identified multiple sites in North Queensland for nuclear reactors,' he said in a joint statement with state Energy Minister Mick de Brenni.

'This would see nuclear reactors in Townsville, the Sunshine Coast, Rockhampton, Brisbane Valley, Toowoomba, the Darling Downs and more.'

Mr Dutton's Budget Reply speech said Labor's 'renewables only' approach to meeting Australia's net zero by 2050 target had pushed up power prices.

'With nuclear power, we can maximise the highest yield of energy per square metre and minimise environmental damage,' he said.

'We do that by putting new nuclear technologies on- or near- the brownfield sites of decommissioned or retiring coal-fired power plants using the existing grid.

'There's no need for all of the proposed 58 million solar panels, almost 3,500 wind farms, and 28,000 kilometres of new transmission poles and wires.'

Mr Dutton also invoked former prime ministers who personally supported nuclear power - but for political reasons were forced to set up roadblocks to this energy source.

'Bob Hawke was a strong leader who strongly supported nuclear power,' he said.

Even before he delivered his Budget Reply speech on Thursday night, they started a scare campaign against his plan to convert disused coal-fired power stations into nuclear reactors (pictured is Tihange in Belgium)

'As does John Howard, along with the Australian Workers Union, and many others who have a vision for our country – including some 65 per cent of Australians aged 18 to 34-years-old.'

While Mr Hawke as Labor prime minister personally supported nuclear power, his party's 1984 national conference introduced a 'three mines policy' restricting uranium extraction to the Ranger, Nabarlek and Olympic Dam projects.

Mr Howard as PM in 1998 agreed to ban nuclear power as part of a a Greens amendment to get support for a new research reactor for nuclear medicine at Lucas Heights in Sydney's south.

But Australian Workers Union's national secretary Dan Walton in 2021 called for the ban on nuclear energy to be lifted and explore the idea of small modular reactors that can produce 300 megawatts or 300million watts of power.

'We already have the uranium, why would we not develop the capacity to use it in safe and effective modern ways?' he asked.

His predecessor Paul Howes made that call in 2009. 

New South Wales Environment Minister Penny Sharpe tweeted about a lower house vote to ban nuclear power in the state

Queensland Labor Premier Steven Miles tried a pre-emptive reaction on Monday after Daily Mail Australia revealed Nuclear for Climate Australia, a group endorsed by Liberal and National MPs, had earmarked 13 sites for a nuclear reactor

'Nuclear energy should be part of Australia's prudent risk strategy policy mix aimed at addressing energy security and climate change,' he told the Sydney Institute.

The AWU is one of the biggest unions affiliated with Labor's Right faction at national conference while the more vocal Labor critics of nuclear power have come from the party's Left, which Prime Minister Anthony Albanese hails from.

The most recent Newspoll survey had Labor ahead of the Coalition 51 to 49 per cent after preferences, which is tighter than the 52 to 48 per cent result at the 2022 election.

But the Coalition would need a 6.4 per cent swing to win 18 seats off Labor to barely form a majority government should the climate change-focused teal independents in Sydney, Melbourne and Perth keep their wealthy electorates they won off the Liberal Party in 2022. 

Dr Miles, the underdog at the upcoming Queensland election, is campaigning against Mr Dutton like one of his Labor predecessors Wayne Goss did in 1993 when federal Liberal leader John Hewson was the favourite to win the election with a 15 per cent GST.