Nigel Farage could double Tory vote and save them from crushing defeat, new poll proves

A new poll has appeared to confirm that the Tories are heading to a “car crash” election unless they can move to the right and do a deal with Nigel Farage and Reform UK.

The latest weekly tracker poll for Express.co.uk from Techne UK has given Labour a massive 23-point lead, up two from last week.

Sir Keir Starmer’s party is on 45% (up 1), the Conservatives 22% (down 1) while Reform UK have regained their highest level of support of 13% (up 1) well ahead of the Lib Dems on 9% and Greens on 5%.

If the poll was the result of a general election then the Tories would be reduced to a mere 55 seats according to Electoral Calculus, about one-third of their worst-ever result in 1906, while Labour would have a majority of 350 with 500 seats.

But with the crucial local elections which could decide Rishi Sunak’s fate as Tory leader and Prime Minister just a fortnight away, the poll of 1,630 people has also revealed how the Tories could potentially save themselves from the most humiliating general election result in their 346-year history.

Electoral Calculus prediction

According to the breakdown, only 40% of those who voted for the Conservatives in the 2019 election when Boris Johnson was leader will still back the party.

However, almost one in five (19%) 2019 Tory voters have switched to the more rightwing Reform UK, another 12% have gone on strike and will not vote and 10% are uncertain. In total 41% of the party’s 2019 support could be won back if the party moves to the right and becomes more conservative.

If the party was able to bring the 41% back they would have 81% of their 2019 support and potentially be in a competitive position to take on Labour in the election.

The polling appears to support Tory MPs and senior party figures who believe that a change of leader to someone from the right is needed to save them at the election and for someone to woo Nigel Farage to bring the Tory discontents back from Reform or just refusing to vote.

One senior Conservative MP told Express.co.uk: “It is so obvious what we need to do. We need people from the right back in the cabinet and real conservative policies instead of pandering to the One Nation wets.”

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The MP added: “We need a leader who can do a deal with Nigel Farage. We need him in the tent because our voters love him and Boris [Johnson].”

Meanwhile, the attacks on Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner and the police investigation over a potential breach of electoral law with her former house as well as claims she may have avoided paying tax on its sale, appears to have not had an impact on Labour support.

Techne UK chief executive Michela Morizzo warned that the Tory prospects “remain bleak” with the crucial local elections rapidly approaching.

She said: “Our regular tracker poll brings further very grim news for Rishi Sunak and his Conservative Party.

“Sunak’s problems are compounded by the fact that Reform UK increase their national vote share once again to a significant 13%. Richard Tice’s party is not only hurting the Conservatives but with the Lib Dems down 1 point of national vote share to 9%, Reform UK strongly maintain their 3rd place in UK national politics.

“With the local elections just round the corner, regional mayoral and police and crime commissioner roles up for grabs too, things remain very bleak for the Conservatives.”