What to do with Taijuan Walker and Spencer Turnbull

What to do with Taijuan Walker and Spencer Turnbull

The Phillies starting rotation has been one of the true positive developments of the 2024 season thus far. They enter their three-game series with the woeful, three-win Chicago White Sox with the best ERA in the National League (2.54), 3rd-best in baseball, as well as a NL-best 1.06 WHIP, ground ball rate, and .207 batting average against.

The top four starters are locked into place. Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez and Cristopher Sanchez have been exceedingly effective, as has No. 5 starter Spencer Turnbull, who gets the ball for the Phils tonight against the Chicago in the series opener.

Turnbull signed with the Phillies in the off-season on a one-year, $2 million deal with the promise of potentially pitching in the starting rotation should the need arise. Fortunately for him, Taijuan Walker began the regular season on the Injured List with a right shoulder impingement that sapped his velocity and messed with his command. Turnbull has taken advantage of the opportunity, posting a 1.80 ERA in his three starts, with 16 strikeouts and five walks in 15 innings of work thus far. Opponents are hitting just .164 against him, with a 48.7% ground ball rate.

Walker wasn’t expected to be ready to return the rotation for another week or two, but after meeting with manager Rob Thomson last week, MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki reports it’s possible Walker could be back as soon as next week.

Walker met with Phillies manager Rob Thomson on Wednesday at Citizens Bank Park, less than 24 hours after throwing 78 pitches in 4 2/3 innings in a rehab start with Triple-A Lehigh Valley…

…“I told them I felt good,” Walker said. “Yeah, I told them we built up enough. I thought my stuff was pretty sharp yesterday. Got outs, you know. I mean, I believe that in a different environment, a little more adrenaline, stuff just plays up a little bit more.”

Walker’s fastball reportedly averaged just 91.9 mph on Tuesday, significantly lower than the 92.9 mph he averaged a year ago when he went 15-6 but with a 4.38 ERA in 31 starts. He got off to a slow start this spring with a knee issue and saw a lack of velocity and command down in Clearwater, leading to his IL stint over these last few weeks.

If Turnbull pitches well against Chicago tonight, Thomson and Dombrowski will have to make a choice. Continue to go with an effective Turnbull, a pitcher with a no-hitter to his credit, or allow Walker to resume his spot in the rotation?

On my latest Hittin’ Season podcast, I spoke with former 94 WIP afternoon host Jon Marks about the decision facing the Phillies with Walker’s return seemingly imminent.

Of course, the big key is Walker’s contract. Last off-season he signed a four-year, $72 million deal that the Phillies obviously don’t want to waste. Walker is also a workhorse when healthy, and he’s usually pretty healthy. Turnbull, meanwhile, likely only has 100-120 innings on his arm after pitching just 31 innings a year ago.

Turnbull was signed to be a long man in the bullpen and that’s likely where he’ll end up. It’s not likely he would be able to handle the workload of a No. 5 starter all season long, so Walker’s re-emergence allows the Phillies to put Turnbull in the bullpen, where he’ll certainly be of use.

If Turnbull had logged 100+ innings last year, this would be a more difficult decision, but reinserting Walker back into the rotation is the logical decision, both from a financial and health perspective.

That being said, should Walker struggle, the Phillies should not hesitate to turn back to Turnbull and figure out what to do with Walker down the road. But for now, Walker will return to the rotation and we’ll cross our fingers he returns to being an effective mid-rotation starter for the Phils.