‘Middle England’s gone’: Sunak in danger zone as spooked Tories plan next move

“If Rishi survives the next two weeks, he will lead the party into the election – whether it is July or January”. This was the verdict of a minister on Thursday eve as the polls closed. For months now, it’s been clear that this week’s local elections had the potential to make or break Sunak’s premiership.

Ever since the departure of Suella Braverman from his government, a group of MPs, former advisers and former donors have been actively agitating to make life as difficult as possible for the Prime Minister. But even before the plotters moved in, it was viewed as a weak point for Sunak.

As the ousting of the past two Tory leaders have shown, dismal polling tends to lead Tory MPs to panic. That can lead to calls for a new leader. The question being asked in Westminster: are these local election results bad enough to convince MPs to do it all again?

As the results drip in and continue to do so over the bank holiday weekend, the picture is far from clear cut. In the words of one minister on Friday: “It could be worse but there’s a long way to go yet. Tory MPs will look at the results in more detail than people think. There’s a lot of data out there and we need to wait until all the results are in”. That means it won’t be until Sunday that MPs feel they have the full picture.

Working against Sunak is the first rung of local council results – the party’s result is on course to be historically bad. Unlike last year, they are harder for him to distance himself from. In 2023, Sunak could argue his premiership had only just begun and the party was scarred still from the trauma of the Truss and Johnson days.

A year on, it’s now own “managerial” governing style that MPs on the right blame for the party’s dismal polling. As one Tory strategist puts it on the loss of several key councils such as Redditch and the true-blue Rushmoor council (Tory run for the last 24 years): “It shows the polls are correct. Middle England has gone.”

While there is relief in Government that the Tories managed to narrowly pip Reform to second place in the Blackpool South by-election, the fact that there were only around 100 votes in it is spooking the party. “The Reform vote share in Blackpool is very worrying,” says a senior minister. Another member of Government adds: “It’s probably a by-election fluke – but it shows they will probably shave 500-1,000 votes off in most seats and that matters for marginals.”

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Tory MPs spent Friday looking at the swing from Tories to Labour and working out whether they were goners. As Labour frontbencher Jonathan Ashworth put it bluntly to Tory deputy chairman Jonathan Gullis when he celebrated the Tory police and crime commissioner in Lincolnshire holding on – were the 16 per cent swing to Labour replicated in Gullis’s seat on Stoke-on-Trent North, he would be “toast”.

It’s why despite the victory of Ben Houchen in Tees Valley of securing a third term, Sunak is not quite out of the woods yet. “Ben keeping Tees Valley is the bare minimum – if he’d lost we would have been in the wild west”. It also hasn’t gone unnoticed among MPs that for all the store placed in the mayors fighting off Labour, both Houchen and Andy Street have effectively run on personal brands against the party’s record.

Despite this, Downing Street hopes the metro mayors’ fortunes will be enough to get the Prime Minister over the line. Sunak’s decision to visit Houchen on Friday shows the Prime Minister trying to hug success close – even if the Tees Valley mayor’s campaign had distance from the centre.

Sunak will be shored up further if Street could be re-elected in the West Midlands on Saturday – with Labour sources sounding pessimistic about their chances. One MP says the thing that would really save Sunak is Susan Hall winning in London – due on Saturday: “I mean it would be such a shock it would shut everyone up. I don’t think it will seriously happen though.”

For now, Sunak is not out of the danger zone. A growing number of MPs believe Sunak won’t be forced out on the grounds there isn’t yet a clear challenger. “He is lucky that Boris [Johnson] called it quits and gave up,” says a former cabinet minister. “Otherwise I think he would be out”.

But even if this holds true, the risk to Sunak isn’t just a simple “no-confidence” vote.

Already some Tory MPs – such as Paul Scully – have called for more vision and suggested No 10 are in “bunker mentality”. Former minister and Tory MP Justine Greening is also raising concerns. If unhappiness spreads, MPs could demand a change in strategy – or changes to personnel in 10 Downing Street.

“There are other ways than deposing a leader to make MPs voices heard,” says a party old hand. If MPs start to make their voices heard, expect some to call for more consultation on strategy – and for more MP involvement in the operation. The threat of Reform could see a push to include a commitment on leaving the European Convention on Human Rights in the manifesto if the Rwanda scheme fails to stop the crossings.

For now, the jury is out. As a minister puts it: “Most MPs are staying quiet – no one wants to be on the wrong side of debate. If Sunak was clearly winning or losing you would get more noise instead it’s the sound of silence. It shows this is still a live issue.”

Most expect the rebels to try to whip up an anti-Sunak sentiment over the weekend ahead of MPs returning on Tuesday. Thanks to Houchen, Sunak has some form of shield. However, even a mayoral win or two can’t distract from the scale of losses in former Tory heartlands. It’s these that MPs will be mulling and agonising over in the coming days.