Labour lead drops by six points in new poll – but party remains on course for big majority

Labour’s lead over the Conservatives has dropped by six points – but the party remains on course for a significant majority at the next general election, according to new polling.

The Savanta poll, conducted for the Telegraph earlier this week (5-7 April), has Labour 15 points ahead with 42 per cent of the vote share, compared with the Conservatives on 27 per cent.

Reform UK has seen its figure drop two points to 10 per cent compared to Savanta’s previous poll, conducted on 28 March, while the Greens recorded a small increase to 4 per cent.

The latest poll gave Labour its lowest lead over the Conservatives since mid-February 2024.

But if these results were replicated at a general election, according to seat-modelling site Electoral Calculus, Labour would be on course for a majority of 188.

Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta said: “It has been a relatively quiet period in Westminster, with the Government looking sure-footed on the main issue of the day, the Israel-Gaza conflict.

“When the Conservatives aren’t battling rolling headlines of scandal and disunity, that will almost certainly be helping them in the eyes of the electorate.”

Sir Keir Starmer’s party has retained a substantial polling lead Photo: Maria Unger/UK Parliament)

“This is only one poll, which may be an outlier and therefore taken with caution.

“A 15-point lead for Labour would simply be the difference between an electoral battering and an absolute wipeout for the Conservatives. That being said, these results will likely hearten Rishi Sunak weeks ahead from crucial local elections.”

Savanta’s polling so far in 2024 has shown Labour leads of 19, 17, 14, 19, 12, 14, 18, 17, 18, 18, 20, 21 and now 15 points.

It comes after a YouGov poll last week also showed the Conservatives to be heading for a defeat at the next election on par with 1997, when the party won a total of 165 seats.

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Released last Wednesday, it found that Labour would win 403 seats, while the Tories would be reduced to 155 – giving Labour a 154-seat majority in the House of Commons.

The Conservatives would win just 155 seats, down from the 365 seats they won at the 2019 general election.

The analysis, which uses the multi-level regression and poststratification (MRP) method of polling, found that prominent Tory figures including Jeremy Hunt, Penny Mordaunt, Sir Iain Duncan Smith, and Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg would be on course to lose their constituencies.

Other big Tory figures at risk include Cabinet members Michelle Donelan, the Science Secretary, and Welsh Secretary David TC Davies.

Another recent poll by Survation for Best for Britain predicted that the Tories could be reduced to fewer than 100 MPs at general election, with Sir Keir Starmer’s party winning 468.