Wintry Weather Freezes Up Iowa Caucuses Campaigning

WEST DES MOINES, Iowa—Political operatives have long said having a robust organizational effort that can turn out supporters on a cold winter night is critical for success in Iowa’s presidential caucuses.

This year’s weather is taking the cold part to the extreme: Forecasts call for the lowest temperatures ever for an event that dates back to the 1970s. That could put a dent in turnout, especially among older voters, for the first 2024 Republican nomination balloting.

Daytime temperatures on Monday, the day of the caucuses, aren’t expected to get above zero in the state capital of Des Moines, with the potential to dip below that by double digits by the time 1,657 Republican precinct meetings convene at 7 p.m. local time. Wind chills will make it feel even colder.

“If it’s sunny during the day, but really, really cold and the roads are passable, we’ll manage,” said Craig Robinson, a former Republican Party political director in Iowa. “Where you could really see falloff is older people, who don’t really like to be out driving around in the dark anyway.”

State GOP leaders have acknowledged the cold could prevent Iowa from setting a Republican turnout record, which was about 186,000 in 2016—the year of the last competitive caucuses.

State party officials have said no contingency plans are in place and that the caucuses will be held, no matter the weather. Part of the pressure to keep on schedule stems from New Hampshire’s hosting the nation’s first primary just eight days later.

During a telephone town hall Friday, Nikki Haley encouraged supporters to wear lots of layers, in case they have to wait outside to get checked into a caucus meeting. Her campaign canceled in-person events Friday because of a blizzard—the state’s second major snow event this week—and instead conducted three different conference calls with voters.

“So, on the 15th, on Monday, it’s going to be so cold,” the former South Carolina governor said Thursday, with a bit of a southern drawl, during an in-person event in suburban Des Moines. “Like, I don’t even know what negative 15 is. I was complaining it was cold in Iowa in October.”

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Thursday told reporters he had more warm clothes headed his way: “My Florida blood is adapting,” he said. “Get as low as you need to go. We’re not stopping.”

Like Haley, he scrambled campaign plans Friday, when a blizzard warning made travel nearly impossible. DeSantis appeared at a pre-scheduled event and spent time with volunteers in a Des Moines suburb, but several later events organized by a super PAC supportive of his campaign were scrapped.

Former President Donald Trump, who has campaigned in Iowa far less than his two top challengers, wasn’t in the state for the peak of the storm. Trump’s campaign converted two scheduled in-person rallies Saturday into conference calls with him.

Biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, however, kept his campaign schedule Friday, making stops in central and western Iowa.

Some voters at the DeSantis in-person event Thursday said they weren’t sure if they’d be able to make it caucus night.

Mary Warren, a retiree from Ames, is chairing her caucus and already has lost one volunteer because of the expected cold. Warren, who is supporting DeSantis, said it could be his gain on caucus night: She feels like the Florida governor’s supporters are younger than those who back Trump.

“Maybe the Trump supporters with these polls and stuff feel they’re so far ahead and it’s going to be so cold that they’re not going to get out,” she said. “It’s good for us.” Trump leads all Iowa polling by wide margins, while DeSantis and Haley are competing for a distant second.

The cold temperatures will also make it difficult for the traditional, door-to-door turnout efforts on the final weekend before the caucuses.

Campaigns and their supporters were adapting. On one of the Haley town halls the moderator asked voters to press one button keypad to signal if they planned to show up for Haley and another if they were undecided. Warren said she had received several calls from the DeSantis super PAC ensuring she would be showing up.

Robinson said the upside of the cold weather, in terms of turnout efforts, is that people are more likely to be home and able to answer phone calls and other electronic-communication efforts to get them to the caucuses.

Alex Leary contributed to this article.

Write to John McCormick at [email protected] and Eliza Collins at [email protected]