Joe Biden Is Now Beating Donald Trump With Republican Pollsters as Well

Is Joe Biden the Favorite Now?

Joe Biden is narrowly beating Donald Trump ahead of November’s presidential election, according to a new poll.

The survey, conducted of 1,020 likely voters between April 12 and 14, revealed that 49 percent of respondents would either definitely, probably or lean to voting for Biden, while 46 percent would opt for Trump. However, the poll had a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points.

The survey was carried out by Echelon Insights, which was cofounded by the former Republican digital strategist Patrick Ruffini and the pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson.

Newsweek contacted representatives for Trump and Biden by email to comment on this story.

The Context

In March, it was confirmed that Biden and Trump will face off against each other in November, with both winning enough delegates to secure their respective parties’ presidential nomination, so teeing up a rematch of the 2020 election.

Since then, a number of polls have sought to predict the outcome, with some saying the incumbent will win a second term but others predicting Trump will get the keys to the White House for a second time.

Recently, a string of polls have suggested Biden is in the lead.

What We Know

The latest poll is significant in that it is from a Republican pollster but has still shown that Biden is in the lead.

It also found that 49 percent of people would vote for a Democratic candidate in Congressional elections, while 46 percent would vote for a Republican candidate.

Thirty-eight percent of respondents to the polls said they considered themselves a Democrat, while 37 percent said they were a Republican, and 23 percent said they were Independent.

Views

Mark Shanahan, an associate professor in politics at the University of Surrey in the U.K., told Newsweek the race was “tight” and one poll was not enough to determine the result.

“We should never set too much store by the results of one poll, and all we can really say at the moment is that this is a tight race between two unpopular candidates,” Shanahan said.

“It’s a race where the fear factor will play strongly in getting out the vote, and that’s why the timing of the Echelon Insights poll may be interesting. Fear of a second Trump term drives Democrats and independents to vote, with the logic that complacency on their part will enable the former president to win in November. Echelon appears to recognise that the same complacency on the part of Republicans could return Biden to the White House and thus they aim to stoke that fear among GOP-leaning voters.”

Shanahan continued: “This poll was conducted just before Trump’s Stormy Daniels New York trial began, a trial that could damage Trump’s standing outside his base, especially with the moderate right-leaning voters he needs if he is to win. This current poll is aimed at shoring up their support with the suggestion that Biden is still very much in this race.”

In response to a request for comment, Steven Cheung, a Trump spokesperson, sent Newsweek links to two polls in which Trump is beating Biden. One in which the former president is leading the incumbent in five swing states, and another in which he is beating Biden nationally, with 47 percent of the vote to Biden’s 46 percent.

What’s Next?

With seven months to go until the election, speculation about its outcome is likely to continue, but it will only be until after polling day when America’s political future will be determined.

Update, 4/17/24, 5:47 a.m. EST: This story has been updated with additional information.

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