India votes as BJP looks to extend ten-year grip on power: Referendum on Modi?

A record 969,000,000 citizens called to the polls for what some see as a referendum about a single man. India’s about to embark on the world’s biggest election staggered over 7 weeks with Narendra Modi’s Indu nationalist BJP favored to stretch its solid lead in parliament. Modi’s been pointing to a decade of unprecedented growth and power for a nation courted by the West and beyond. The opposition warns of growing inequality and democratic backsliding, court cases deemed political dog its leader Rahul Gandhi, as well as the popular chief Minister of Delhi, who’s currently in jail for elected ties to a corruption case. So as India moves from the country to the city, as the literacy rate rises, what kind of a democracy is it? And what does the majority of its 1.4 billion people want? Today in the French 24 debate, we’re looking ahead to India’s general election. Joining us from the capital, New Delhi, Rajat Seti, visiting fellow at the India Foundation think tank. Thanks for being with us. Hi, good evening, everyone. Jean Lee Kassin, your senior fellow at the Asia Center think tank. Welcome back to the show. Good evening. France 24 is Julia Jacinto, Senior editor at france24.com. You’ve been reporting on these elections there for us. How are you? Good. Good to be here. Your reactions on the hashtag F-24 debate. It’s a marathon, not a Sprint. Voting spread over 44 days across India’s 28 States and Union Territories, 543 constituencies up for grabs. Polling stretches from Friday to this Friday to June the 1st. There you see all 7 phases on this map of India, with the results to be announced the following Monday on June the 4th. The BJP got 303 seats last time around and hopes to do better this time. They have improved the country’s infrastructure, they have created more jobs, they have integrated the country into a digital economy. Those are the pros of the government and the cause of the government are the religious. If that is happening, the communal discord that is seen all throughout India, there’s not going to be a job lack in your future and there’s not a safety net for youngsters and we need new skills that will, that we will need in the upcoming future. I will not vote for the BJP because they did not address the rights of the farmers and justice has not been served to many farmers who lost their lives during the protests. OK, so there you hear some dissenting voices by Johnny Kassina, the BJP hoping to go from was it 303 seats to more than 400? What’s this election about? Well, it’s an election first about Modi. Because of course, what’s characterising the of those days is the focus on the Prime Minister. And we had a good example of that when Ram temple in Ayodhya has been inaugurated not by UI priest but by the Prime Minister. This was back in January, back in January. And when we see also his portrait everywhere in Delhi, when there was the G20 presidency or everywhere in the electoral manifesto of the BGP. And of course, what’s tracking I think again this time is that the focus on the BGP is not just the program, It’s the program which is guaranteed, quote UN quote by the Prime Minister. And in the list of the topics which have to be addressed in case of victory, Each of this topic for the poor, for the ladies, for the fishermen, for the farmers, for the young, for the old. Each time there is the guarantee of Modi. So it’s really a kind of competition which sewing pulls the relevance of the leader because as Modi himself has said, the time globally are difficult. So India is supposed to need a strong government and a strong government is of course the result of a strong vote from the people and a strong government led by a strong leader. This, of course, open space for the opposition, which may criticize this kind of epair personalization of the leadership, and also on the question of how democracy is turning to be whatever. Is there a precedent for this where power in India has been associated so much with one single individual? When you think back to the Indira Gandhi days, for instance, Yeah, of course during Indira Gandhi days there was a kind of sycophant in the Congress who said India is Indira and Indira is India. But now it’s it’s more than that. I mean, well, I mean we have not to take too seriously every statement by some BGP supporters, but after Ayodhya there were some BGP militants we see. Well, now we have a new incarnation of God drum and somebody has been painted as being the 11th avatar of the deity. But it’s not representative of course of what the average Indian is thinking about. But the stakes are are very important about to conception of what India is supposed to be. And this raise of course the question of what would happen in case of prostic of a third victory is confirmed and under which condition it will be confirmed. Because as you said, Modi was saying, first we want to have 370 seats, which was of course a reference to the constitutional Article 370 which what referred to for changing the fate of Kashmir in 2019. Then now we say perhaps 400 seeds. I think this is important because if he doesn’t reach this number he may be Victor Hughes but but behind that the real issue is what of preliminaries necessary in term of number of MPs for eventually changing the constitution. Eventually change the constitution if they get a super majority. Johnny Kasim there mentioning that back in January, Indias Prime Minister opening that Hindu temple built on the ruins of a historic Mughal era mosque in the northern town of Ayodhya. We discussed it on this very set at the time. Rajat Sethi, you know, there’s this old mantra that politicians like to use, which was unity through diversity. Is that being replaced in India? It is today India, you know, a Hindu majority nation and that’s the way it should be seen. Well, India’s secular credentials are very much intact and are strengthened the the temple movement has been going on for the past three decades. Indian, especially the majority Hindus in India, patiently went through a proper legal process right from the lower course court to the highest courts in India. And when the highest court upheld that the mosque was built on an original temple was when the Hindus were handed over the land and the temple was built. There was completely peace atmosphere in the whole country. Which further suggests that all community welcomed court’s decision and ensured a beautiful temple is built wherein not just the Hindus but also the Muslims community in India not just appreciated it, they also came at the inauguration. So this is plain and simple. Secular credentials of the Indian state as such remains intact and I don’t see any kind of fear mongering there is going to affect our fabric, one. Number two, I just heard the previous gentleman speak about supermajority. Well, Indian, the Indian citizen is all geared up to, you know, to hand over yet another mandate to Prime Minister Modi. And he has categorically said that any kind of fear mongering or dog whistling by certain miscreants that the Constitution would be changed is misplaced. He has underscored this that the rights of all communities would remain intact. Our constitution and the basic structure of our Constitution cannot be changed. The Supreme Court has held this for a very long time now more than five decades and that remains the law of the land. You cannot change the secular fabric just by changing or altering the Constitution. So I would suggest read about Indias constitutional jurisprudence to arrive to a conclusion that what can Modi do with the supermajority. So I think I would request the previous speaker to also deep dive and look at a deeper sort of an analysis to reach to a conclusion. Let me bring you in on this then. The Is the India of today the same as ten years ago when it comes to its identity as a secular state? No, it isn’t. I mean after a decade of Modi in power there are fundamental changes. I mean the the Modi decade has been characterized by economic growth. I’m sure we’re going to talk about that but also hyper nationalism which which comes with with a crackdown on on free speech and and and anybody disputing the line, Hindu, Hindu majoritarianism, brand Modi and also social welfare. You know and to talk about the the Ayodhya mosque, I mean this there were there were a couple of things on the BJP’s manifesto that kept coming up for years and a lot of people thought these are just talking points. You know this is just the BJP’s platform. It’s not going to be done. The revoking of Kashmir status, the article of the constitution which was revoked. So that was a constitutional change, the building of the Ayodhya mosque, which send an incredible signal to India’s minority Muslim community. It’s it’s, it’s a message not only of the change in the narrative, you know, to tell people that the Muslims were happy with this, You know, this is, this has been a long standing dispute, an extremely touchy dispute. But it also shows the changes in the institutions in in in 10 decades in power. So no, this is not but but to to Raja’s point that there are checks and balances in India and the constitution won’t be changed if there’s a super majority. It’s arguable what the checks and balances are in India. I mean there is hardly much opposition. A lot of, a lot of these most controversial measures were pushed through Parliament. You know, the BJP and its allies has 303 seats in Parliament. Not much debate and and and not much of an opposition, partly because of its own internal weaknesses, but very much because the opposition has been completely targeted. And this is no secret even for international viewers who are not paying much attention to India. You know they are. They are seeing chief ministers from the opposition being arrested. You know what is called right now in India, tax terrorism. So people who are from the opposition get targeted by the powerful Enforcement Directorate. So there is, there is, there is a steady decrease in in a lot of democratic milestones in India. Let me ask you about this Rajat Sethi, because you have the leader of the Congress party. He’s accusing the BJP of freezing campaign funds and restricting travel. Rahul Gandhi, who is had a two year prison sentence for defamation suspended. But it’s not completely been wiped from the book. So it’s there as a sword of Damocles. And then there’s the the Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Keshwar, who remains in custody on allegations his party received kickbacks while handing out liquor licenses to private companies. Does he deserve to be held behind bars? Is he a flight risk? This election is a fight between two blocks. On the one side, there is the National Democratic Alliance, which wants to remove the corrupt. On the other hand, there is another block that wants to protect the corrupt. Now you the people have to choose. That was the the the few days ago. Narendra Modi on the campaign trail in Uttar Pradesh Rajat Sethi. This accusation that the opposition’s being hounded, your reaction to that? I think the law is catching up. Especially the Delhi chief minister is accused of a very big crime associated with liquor policy. But should he be in jail? He hasn’t even been formally charged. Yeah so the Indian legal system went through the process of bail application and he found and it it found out that the the primary, the primary evidence is put forth builds a strong time of aside case against the Delhi chief minister and him being powerful can can tamper with the evidence. This is what the courts observations were and the court and the highest courts of our country by the way deemed it fit to keep him under the under the judicial custody. He’s not being jailed. He’s in the judicial custody till the investigation is not complete. Once the investigation moves into the trial phase, he will be released. These are there can’t be special rules for the opposition and we will be a common man. The parity and a level playing field has to be there. So I think this is point number one. Point #2 on Rahul Gandhi suggesting that his accounts have been freezed. First of all, there was a lien on the account only for the amount that the Income Tax authorities have been asking this party to submit. For the past more than a decade. There have been summons after summons to Rahul Gandhi and his party that they need to comply with the summons and provide the returns. Every political party in India needs to submit its tax returns. They did not do it over and over again and there were claims from from the tax authorities and then they put a Leon on his account and this can’t be called holes because these are these are the the institutions of our country simply catching up and they have given them enough time. For example, Arvind Kejriwal, he skipped summons of the Enforcement Directorate 9 times. It did not happen in the in the middle of the election. It happened way past one year back. So him saying that it is because of the elections I’ve been arrested that is wrong. So let me turn, let me turn to Jean Lucas. The optics of all of this seen from the outside, you heard that the the, the, the the government’s view that this is just due process. This is the law and the opposition saying why are all our leaders under it’s preciously the government view, you know. And that’s true that because revolve, the chief minister of Delhi, failed to answer a convocation for a number of time. But for freezing the financial resource of the main opposition party during the campaign, it’s quite different because if there was a really serious problem, why the serious problem would not have been addressed one year or two years before. So we have to go beyond that. I think I can reassume, Mr. Siti, that I have read the Constitution. I know that it would be difficult to change it, but I know that the Prime Minister, I say we shall not change it. But there is quite a number of question marks about Beyond the Constitution, the spirit of the Constitution and that as it was said before, there is a change which is a matter of concern for a number of people and not just foreign observers. But the real issue is to know and to explain why Narendra Modi is so popular and is it just a question of a number of welfare decision which have been taken. And here again, of course, there is a debate about up to which extent it’s effective or not. But let’s not enter into it. And what’s striking I mean is that for a month of course we heard about Induva, about Ayodhya of religion. But if we look closely at the election manifesto of BGP, which has been released just a few days ago, it’s basically focus on socio economic issues. Because it’s on those issues that the opposition is trying to put the finger on saying, for instance, Modi had promised to double the income of Indian farmers and we have seen dozens of thousands of farmers protesting against proposed law, changing the rule of agricultural markets and Modi finally has to go back. And similarly, when Modi has proposed in during the last campaign that there would be 20 million jobs created every year here now the opposition is saying. But one of the key issue of India is not just of course the Indian economic growth, but the disconnect between the size of the growth which put in Yahoo and most of the big countries, but also the inequality. Sadly, Jean Eucasi, inequality and unemployment and sadly Jean Eucasin, it’s a curtailed addition due to a strike. So we’re going to have to leave it there for now. But I want to thank you so much. I want to thank Leo Jacinto, frustratingly short. We’ll have, I hope, over the next seven weeks chance with Rajat Seti in in Delhi to talk about it more. Thank you for being with us here in the France 24 debate.