Highest-ranking female Senate Republican Joni Ernst risks being boxed out of leadership
Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) is at risk of being boxed out from Senate GOP leadership by Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) who beat her to the punch in announcing his run for the No. 3 position, Axios has learned.
Why it matters: Ernst is currently the highest-ranking Senate Republican woman, but she could lose her leadership leverage in the middle of the broader GOP shakeup this year.
How we got here: Jumping in early for leadership elections has a clear advantage.
- Cotton has notched significant support from across the conference — enough that his team is confident about locking it in, according to sources close to the senator.
- Almost all of the commitments came in before Ernst announced she was running this month, and they have slowed down since.
- There is still a long way to go, and Cotton will have to work to maintain those commitments.
What to watch: Cotton simultaneously has been in talks with Trump allies about a national security position in a potential future Trump administration.
- He has been considered to potentially lead the FBI, State or the CIA, according to multiple sources close to Cotton and in Trump’s orbit.
- If Trump wins in November, a Cotton appointment could open the door again for Ernst.
The other side: Ernst is still working behind the scenes to hear from colleagues and persuade them to back her bid. A source close to Ernst said the senator is not afraid of a tough election fight.
- There is a huge appetite — especially among the more conservative bloc — for a new slate of leaders to make substantial changes to the way things are run in the Senate.
- “I’ve never been the establishment’s chosen candidate. I’ve always been that outsider,” Ernst told Politico.
- Those senators will be looking closely at how candidates for these lower leadership positions embrace those ideas, one senior GOP Senate staffer told Axios.
The intrigue: Ernst was upset that Cotton announced his bid for Republican Conference chair without giving her a heads-up.
- “I know he didn’t give many of us a heads-up. So that would have been common courtesy,” she told CNN early this month.
- The two have spoken since and generally have a good relationship, according to sources close to both.
- Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.V.) has announced a run for Ernst’s current No. 4 position. It is highly unlikely that Ernst would change her mind to try to hold on to her current position, sources said.
Get the rundown of the biggest stories of the day with Axios Daily Essentials.
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