Majority in North under 45 would vote for united Ireland

More people would vote for Northern Ireland to remain part of the UK if a border poll was held now, according to a new poll undertaken in the North.

Some 49pc are in favour of staying in the UK with 39pc choosing Irish unity, it found.

However, a united Ireland is the most popular choice for the under-45s, with support for the Union strongest among the middle-aged and pensioners.

There is also a key middle ground that could swing any future referendum, with 11pc of people surveyed unsure what they would do, and 1pc saying they would not vote or would spoil their vote.

The findings emerge in a LucidTalk survey for the Belfast Telegraph, and come amid increasing debate on the constitutional question.

Under the terms of the Good Friday Agreement, a border poll should be called by the incumbent Northern Ireland Secretary when they believe there is evidence that public opinion in the region has shifted in favour of change.

Successive UK governments have consistently declined to specify publicly what criteria will be applied when measuring public sentiment on the issue.

However calls for a referendum have ramped up since the appointment of Michelle O’Neill as Northern Ireland’s first nationalist First Minister.

Sinn Féin president Mary Lou McDonald said unification was within “touching distance” – a claim that prompted DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson to remark that she must have the “longest arms on this island”.

Our poll found that while more than eight-in-10 nationalists want a border poll within the next decade, fewer than one-in-10 unionists do.

Indeed, nearly two-thirds of unionists believe there should never be a referendum on Northern Ireland’s constitutional future.

Support for Irish unity is most prevalent in younger age groups.

Among 18-24 year-olds, 48pc want a united Ireland, with 43pc choosing the Union.

The split is 45pc to 41pc among 25-34 year-olds, and 44pc to 42pc among 35-44 year-olds in favour of constitutional change. By comparison, the middle-aged and retired are in favour of maintaining the status quo.

The split is 54pc to 42pc among 45-54 year-olds, and 64pc to 28pc among 55-64 year-olds in favour of the Union.

Some 48pc of pensioners would vote to stay in the UK with 36pc supporting Irish unity.

Maintaining the Union is the most popular choice with Alliance voters (36pc), with 27pc favouring a united Ireland and 35pc undecided.

By contrast Green voters are much more pro-Irish unity (55pc) with just 10pc wanting Northern Ireland to stay in the UK and 35pc undecided.

Some 69pc of SDLP voters would vote to end the Union with 14pc voting to keep it, 11pc unsure what they would do and 6pc who either wouldn’t vote or would spoil their vote.

Non-voters are much more likely to be unionists: 53pc say they would vote to keep Northern Ireland inside the UK, while 30pc would chose a united Ireland, with 17pc still undecided.

While men are split 56pc to 38pc in favour of the Union, it is much closer among women at 43pc to 40pc.

Women are three times more likely to be unsure of how they’d vote (16pc) with just 5pc of men undecided.

A majority of people (52pc) say they aspire to Irish unity at some point in the future, with 44pc stating they will always support Northern Ireland remaining in the UK.

Some 71pc of Alliance, 72pc of Green and 94pc of SDLP voters aspire to Irish unity.

Just 11pc of Alliance supporters say they will always want Northern Ireland to be part of the UK.

While Secretary of State Chris Heaton-Harris says he doesn’t believe a border poll will be called in the next decade, 44pc of people want one within that timeframe, 13pc say it should be held in 11-20 years and 10pc say over 20 years.

Just over a quarter of voters (28pc) believe a referendum on Northern Ireland’s constitutional future should never be held.

Some 83pc of nationalists want a border poll within 10 years but just 8pc of unionists agree – with 63pc of unionists saying one should never be called.

Among Alliance and ‘other’ voters, 45pc support a referendum within a decade – with almost three-quarters saying one should definitely take place within 20 years.

Holding a border poll within a decade is most popular with younger people: 50pc of 18-24 year-olds and 54pc of 25-34 year-olds want one compared to 40pc of pensioners and 35pc of 55-64 year olds.

Some 40pc of the latter oppose a referendum ever being called while 26pc of under-35s agree with that.

While a third of men say are against a border poll under any circumstances in future, only a quarter of women hold that view.​ ​

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