'Hard for us not to be bullish' on stocks, says Carson Group's Ryan Detrick

Are you bullish stocks from here or how do you see things? Yeah, we are you know the building kind what she has talked about before I came on, listen, we all know earnings are strong, right. But the two things I want to point out here, profit margins also have been significantly increasing kind of against what a lot of people expected. Also CapEx expenditures are hitting all time records. When you look at earnings and those other two things, Scott, it’s hard for us not to be bullish. We’ve been overweight equity since December of 2022, you know and a lot of people laughed. You didn’t like that call but it obviously worked out. You look right now where we are, we had that 5 1/2% correction last month. We think that was enough to bring a lot of fear. We had that big spike above 20. We saw some, you know a lot of outflows coming in. We just saw a lot of fear even though it was only 5% cause a lot of other stocks are now more of the big high Flyers. We get it and now here we are you know May’s off to a good start at in an election year. This is seasonality. So don’t do blindly invest in seasonality, but you tend to get a lot of strength in the summer of an election year. We don’t think this year’s love playing out like that again. We think we could have a good summer rally here in an election year. I’m glad you referenced the 5% pullback that we had in in April. I mean some would look at that and say it’s just not enough at least traditionally to, you know, shake out some things that needed to be shaken out before you can, you know, refresh. Now the market may be proving that incorrect because it’s been a pretty strong snap back as I said at at the top of the show and you think it’s believable based on earnings good enough, economy strong enough and rate cuts eventually coming. Yeah, you add a little up, we do. And again you know you look at just how many stocks in the S&P were above their twenty day moving average back at the middle of the middle of April lows and it was less than 10%. That’s kind of washout material. We had the VIX not to get too geeky here in backwardation. You know the last time we saw something like that was like March of last year. I mean you you you think about it, I mean there was a lot of fear even though it’s only 5 1/2% correction, mild correction I should say from that point of view. One other thing, and I think guess has pointed this out before, but I’ll mention it again. May’s hired 9 of the last 10 years. Sell it may go away. These worst six months have been higher eight of the last 10 years. So again, history and repeat itself. It often rhymes. Mark Twain like to use that. There are just many things that we had the wash out the economy strong, the Fed is dovish. We get into that here if you want. But overall, we’re optimistic. We’ve been overweight. We still are. I mean they’re they’re dovish to A to a point. Well, let’s put it this way. I’m not going to exactly suggest they’re screaming dovish, but they’re certainly at least the chair himself. And at the end of the day, that’s really all that matters. The chair himself last week was not nearly as hawkish as some had feared. I don’t know that I would go as far as to say they’re all that dovish. I mean, they’re certainly not cutting rates like we thought they once would. And you know, many suggest whether it’s Ken Griffin or otherwise that OK, we may get one maybe not September, September or December, but we’re not getting nearly what we thought. Now you’re you’re right, good push back there because again it wasn’t as hawkish as a good way to put it. But we look at inflation was up over 9% then down to three on the CPI. We know we’ve hit this little, you know, this little blip if you will and and we’re optimistic though, Scott, inflation is going to continue to improve. I know wages are such a big part of that. The ECI last week scared everybody. Then we saw the positive wage growth. ADP also saw some, you know, decreasing year over year wage growth across the board, you know and the supply chains are still improving overall. So the bottom line is this, a couple months ago, everyone said six to seven cuts as the market said. And then just two weeks ago, we’re saying, listen, maybe no cuts, maybe even a hike. We pushed back against that for the first. I’ve been a cars group for two years. For the first time in two years, we added some treasuries, not a lot, just a little bit about 3 weeks ago. And some of the models we run for our, for our partners, our advisors. And again, it’s not like we’re big bond bowls. We just thought that pendulum swung way too far and we’re so optimistic with the strong productivity. I know last week’s productivity number was a little, little weak, so 2.9% year over year. When you have stronger productivity, like I think we will continue to see the bottom line. I have higher wages. There’s a little cover for the Fed to cut and the economy tends to do a lot better when you have strong productivity. So we’re optimistic there can be two cuts this year. OK, bow on. All right. So I mean if we do get this summer rally that you expect, what takes us there, what what leads us during it. Yeah, we we’ve been overweight cyclicals. We did last month. We added more to industrials and to financials with those areas. But I know a lot of people come on small caps, it’s, you know a dirty word sometimes small caps and mid caps. So if we start to see some more pullback and yields like we have look what’s happened. We think you know that that is one of those areas, it’s so under loved and so under appreciated that we could see a broadening out and that’s what’s needed. We need inflation to come back to that broadening out of this bull market and we are slightly overweight at least mid caps and a little bit of small caps in the we run. So we think it’s possible before this year is over, but you’re gonna see some growth, some good out performance there.